The Milwaukee Brewers are again attempting to sure-up the closer position by bringing in an aging, established closer. Gone is Salomon Torres after he replaced the ineffective Eric Gagne. Last year, the Brewers blew 26 saves (ironically the same amount as Hoffman’s former team the Padres), so they brought in the all-time saves leader to try to shore-up the backend of the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman had one of his worst seasons since taking over the closer role in San Diego. He recorded his highest ERA since 1995, his lowest save total (other than 2003 when he only pitched in 9 games) since 1994, his lowest innings total of his career other than 2003, etc.

Trevor Hoffman’s statistics do not look that bad at first glance. Yes, his FIP of 3.99 was high, but he posted a 2.94 the year before. In fact over the last five years, Hoffman has averaged 55.6 IP with a FIP of 3.13. He also has been at about one strikeout per inning every year. While he does not pile up the Ks, he also does not beat himself with walks. Age is a big issue with Hoffman, but the bigger issue to me is how a flyball-pitcher will translate away from the friendly confines of Petco Park. The following is Hoffman’s FIP in Petco (pFIP), converted to a neutral park (nFIP), and in Miller Park (mFIP).

As you can see, leaving Miller Park definitely hurts Hoffman’s effectiveness. Throwing in his advancing age, it would not seem out of line to expect a FIP of 4.5 or higher. Bill James (of course), Marcels, and CHONE are a bit more optimistic about Hoffman’s future than I am with FIPs of 3.24, 4.00, and 4.18. My expectations are over a quarter of a run higher than Salomon Torres’s FIP from last year (4.22). If he essentially repeats what Torres did last year, then he is definitely worth a draft pick. He is not, however, worthy of being considered anywhere near an “elite” closer or a must-draft. I would also be wary because who knows how well his arm will hold up with his advancing age.

On May 26th, Carlos Delgado went 0-for-3 with a sac fly, dropping his line to .215/.294/.387 for the season. The people who were not calling for his outright release were counting down the days until the end of the season when the Mets could refuse his option and look to fill first base from free agency.

Delgado got a day off on the 27th and from that following day until the end of the year, his batting line was .295/.378/.576 over 482 plate appearances. Many people want to point his resurgence to when the club fired Willie Randolph, but Delgado’s hot streak started nearly three weeks before Randolph got the ax.

Regardless, many fantasy players still view Delgado as a question mark. They are leery of him maintaining the production that he showed over two-thirds of the season in 2008 for a full year in 2009 when he will be 37-years old. But there are several reasons for optimism surrounding Delgado.

One might assume that his BABIP was unsustainable during his hot streak. But in the second half of the season it sat at .295 and for the year it was .284 or 25 points below his career average. Furthermore, neither his BB% (10.7) nor K% (20.7) were out of line with what he’s done the past few years.

The main reason Delgado’s 2008 stats seem mind boggling is that he had such a poor year in 2007. That season, he was recovering from right wrist surgery performed following the 2006 season and was also adjusting to being a first-time father. When his numbers suffered, it was easy to point out his age and say that he was just winding down as a player, a point seemingly bolstered by his start to the 2008 season.

But let’s remove his 2007 line and compare the fantasy stats Delgado posted in 2006 and 2008 and see how they compare to one another.

2006: .265-38-114-89-0
2008: .271-38-115-96-0

Those lines seem perfectly compatible and while Delgado’s 2006 season represented a decline from the previous year, he also suffered a 62-point drop in BABIP that season.

The big difference between 2006 and 2008 for Delgado was his batted ball profile. While his HR/FB rate was nearly identical – 22.9 percent in ’06 compared to 23.3 percent last year – Delgado traded fly balls for line drives. Last year he had a 24.5 percent LD% while posting a 33.9 percent FB%. In 2006, those numbers were 17.9 percent and 43.4 percent, respectively.

One might expect that last year’s big season for line drives would have resulted in a big bump in BABIP but as noted earlier it was just .284 as compared to .276 in 2006. Perhaps a reason for this lower-than-expected BABIP is the exaggerated shift that teams deploy against Delgado, as they move their shortstop to the right side of second base when he comes to the plate.

That makes the big question whether Delgado can maintain his HR output while hitting so few fly balls. His FB% put him between Johnny Damon and Brandon Phillips on the leaderboard, not the first two players who jump to mind when one thinks of power hitters. Of course, Delgado’s HR/FB rate ranked fourth in MLB.

But the fact that the 6.2 percent drop in fly balls from 2006 to 2008 was more than made up for by the 6.6 percent increase in line drives is a good sign. Delgado still has the bat speed to make solid contact. It would be much more worrisome if the line drive percentage dropped and the fly balls increased.

Furthermore, a 24.5 percent line drive rate is not unheard of for Delgado. He posted a 27 percent rate in 2003, the second year which we have the data. In those seven years, Delgado has a LD% over 20 percent four times.

One thing fantasy players should keep in mind about Delgado is his new home ballpark. There have been wild speculations about it being either a “launching pad” or a “Grand Canyon”. One thing we do know is that Delgado never hit for a high average in Shea.

Here are his splits in his three years with the Mets:

H: .237 (190-801) with 48 HR (21 in 2008)
R: .282 (242-859) with 52 HR

Even if the new park favors pitchers, it would be hard for it to depress Delgado’s numbers farther, as most players perform better in their home parks. And the chance exists that it will actually help instead of cutting 45 points off his batting average.

So, fantasy players should feel confident about taking Delgado’s 2008 numbers at face value. He was not particularly lucky, his numbers stack up well with his previous output, especially once you remove his dreadful 2007 numbers and the move to the new park should not be a concern as he never hit particularly well at Shea, anyway.

Of course, first base is stacked in fantasy so it is not wise to make Delgado one of the top players picked at the position. But last year he ranked ninth among first basemen with a $22.22 dollar value and he should approach those numbers again in 2009.

Kevin Youkilis has made quite the ascension during his professional career. A mildly regarded prospect coming out of the University of Cincinnati, Youkilis saw 242 other players taken ahead of him before the Boston Red Sox came calling in the 8th round of the 2001 amateur draft. The former Bearcat quickly became known for possessing otherworldly plate discipline, posting a .512 OBP during his New York-Penn League debut in the summer of ’01. Despite that eye and the subsequent “Greek Good of Walks” nickname that came with it, Youkilis had his fair share of detractors: be it his conditioning, advanced age or lack of thump while playing a power position, many questioned his ability to become more than a complementary player at the major league level.

The career .300/.444/.441 minor league hitter split the 2004 and 2005 seasons between Boston and Pawtucket before finally getting the opportunity at everyday playing time in the big leagues in 2006, at the age of 27. The ever-judicious Youkilis drew walks at a 13.8% clip during the ’06 season, posting a .357 wOBA and a .279/.381/.429 line. Youk followed that up with a .373 wOBA in 2007, improving to the tune of .288/.390/.453 while posting a 12.7 BB%. By this point, the scouting reports on Youkilis looked pretty accurate: He would draw plenty of walks and contrbute to a quality offensive attack, but the chances of him ever anchoring a lineup seemed remote.

Then came Youkilis’ 2008 campaign. The Greek God of Walks suddenly appeared to acquire the strength of Zeus, pummeling the baseball and popping as many home runs in ’08 (29) as he had in the prior two seasons combined. After posting a tame .149 ISO in 2006 and a slightly better mark of .165 in 2007, the 29 year-old raised that figure to .257 in 2008. Youkils’ ISO tied newly-minted Ray Pat Burrell for the 12th-highest mark among all qualified batters, and Youk’s .402 wOBA also ranked 12th, sandwiched between Hanley Ramirez and David Wright. While the 6-1, 220 pounder is still fairly patient (with a 10.3 BB% in ’08), he has become increasingly aggressive over the course of his major league career:

2006: 15.1 O-Swing%, 55.7 Z-Swing%, 36.7 Swing%
2007: 17.4 O-Swing%, 58.6 Z-Swing%, 39.5 Swing%
2008: 22.3 O-Swing%, 59.9 Z-Swing%, 42.4 Swing%

Keep in mind that we’re speaking in relative terms here: the average O-Swing% has been around 25% over the past two seasons, so Youkilis still goes fishing outside of the strike zone less than most. But, Youkilis has gone from uber-patient to more willing to go after an offering that he likes, be it in or out of the zone. Whether this trend is related to his increase in power is debatable, but perhaps he’s more apt to attack a fat pitch or even a hittable pitch a little off the plate these days. Youk’s plate discipline numbers, lowered walk rate and power increase suggest that he has traded some free passes for some extra-base hits.

Following his monster ’08 campaign, Youkilis has apparently cashed in: the lukewarm prospect who signed for just $12,000 has reportedly inked a four-year, $40 million extension with an option for the 2013 season. Youkilis had two years of arbitration eligibility left, so the deal buys out those two seasons as well as two years of free agency. How does that deal stack up for the Sox?

Let’s assume that Youkilis keeps some, but not all of the offensive gains he made this past season. Marcel’s 2009 projection looks appropriate: a .287/.377/.477 line with a .370 wOBA. Adding up Youkilis’ offensive value (about +18 runs), defensive prowess (he’s been about a +6 run defender when you weigh his last three seasons) and then account for his positional adjustment and the replacement level baseline, Youkilis projects to be worth about 3.2 wins in 2009.

An arbitration-eligible player tends to earn about 40% of his fair market value during his first season of eligibility, 60% the second and 80% in his final year. Here’s how much Youkilis (in his second year of arbitration eligibility) projects to be worth using a $4.5 million/WAR rate, if we assume his performance stays pretty static. Let’s assume he stays as a 3.2 WAR performer during his age 30 and 31 seasons, and then declines 5% in each of 2011 (age 32) and 2012 (age 33).

2009 (60% of fair market value): $8.64M ($14.4M free agent value multiplied by .6)
2010 (80% of fair market value): $11.5M ($14.4M multiplied by .8)
2011 (FA; full value, 3 WAR): $13.5M
2012 (FA; full value, 2.9 WAR): $13.05M
Total: $46.7M

Even if we assume that Youkilis gives back some of his power, sticks at first base and declines somewhat during the last two years of the pact, this deal looks like a winner for the Red Sox.

The terms of the contract might actually be more favorable still: a couple of readers have pointed out that Youkilis is likely to shift across the diamond to third base to make room for Lars Anderson. Youk has been a very solid defender at third in slightly less than 1,100 innings. Even if one is pessimistic and feels that he’ll be just an average defender at the hot corner from 2010-2012, Youkilis will increase his value to Boston if he shifts up the defensive spectrum:

2009 (60% of fair market value, 3.2 WAR): $8.64M ($14.4M free agent value multiplied by .6)
2010: (80% of fair market value, at 3B, 4.05 WAR): $14.6M ($18.2M free agent value multiplied by .8)
2011: (FA; full value, at 3B, 3.8 WAR): $17.1M
2012: (FA; full value, at 3B, 3.65 WAR): $16.4M
Total: $56.75M

If Youkilis can play an average third base from 2010-2012, then this deal will give the Sox $16.75M in surplus value (production minus his salary of $40M) instead of $6.7M at first base.

Kevin Youkilis may be acclaimed for his ability to work the count, but he has gradually become more willing to take the bat off of his shoulder and has seen his power production increase each season of his big league career. Perhaps he won’t outslug Mark Teixeira again next season, but Youkilis has proven himself to be far more than just a spare part in the big leagues.

Matt Lindstrom can throw a baseball 100 miles per hour. And if that was not good enough, the Marlins traded Kevin Gregg in the off-season, clearing the closer’s job for Lindstrom. With Logan Kensing and Scott Proctor as his main competition, it appears Lindstrom should be the team’s closer on Opening Day. So, why isn’t there more excitement surround Lindstrom? He does not crack the top 200 in early ADP reports.

Last year, Lindstrom’s walk rate was less than good. He suffered through a minor back injury and spent some time in the minors. But when he was with the Marlins, he posted a 4.08 BB/9 which led to a 1.45 WHIP. His previous track record with walks is spotty. Lindstrom was very good with the Marlins in 2007, with a 2.82 BB/9, but his minor league record shows seasons in line with 2008.

Gregg notched 61 saves for the Marlins over the past two seasons with a walk rate similar to Lindstrom’s mark last season. But let’s not get bogged down with his walks. In addition to his velocity, Lindstrom is also a groundball pitcher. His GB/FB ratio last year was 1.54, which led to a microscopic 0.16 HR/9, the fourth-lowest total among relievers. Some might think that he’s in for a major regression but in 2007 his HR/9 checked in at 0.27 for the year.

The combination of a top-notch fastball, lots of ground balls and very few home runs allowed is an attractive one for a potential closer. One thing to be wary of is that Lindstrom has agreed to pitch for the U.S. in the WBC. Instead of spending Spring Training refining his slider and firmly establishing himself as the team’s closer, Lindstrom will be setting up Joe Nathan, Brian Fuentes, Jonathan Broxton and others.

While that is a concern, it should not override a guy with an excellent shot of posting 30+ saves with solid strikeout numbers. In his two years in the majors, Lindstrom has a 7.60 K/9 rate. That’s a nice combo for a guy going in the lower 20 percent of mock drafts currently.

The Boston Red Sox organization may have the best pitching depth in all of Major League Baseball. The veteran starting rotation currently boasts Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz. For those of you counting at home, that adds up to six quality starting pitchers. Six pitchers that could probably be No. 3 starters or better on almost any club in the Majors.

Now to be fair, both Penny and Smoltz come with major questions marks because of their health. Smoltz, 41, will only be available for half a season at best, but he could be a major difference maker in a short playoff series – as either a starter or a reliever. Penny won 16 games in both 2006 and 2007. At the age of 30, he still has the chance to regain his old form if his arm does not fall off. All he really needs to do is stay healthy until Smoltz is ready. Together, Penny and Smoltz make a pretty intimidating two-headed monster.

Wakefield, now 42, had his share of injury woes in 2008 thanks to shoulder problems, but he is a great value at just $4 million and throwing the knuckleball takes less toll on his body than other pitches. He should still be good for 10 wins, 150 innings and possibly 100 strikeouts.

Lester made a valiant return from cancer and provided 33 starts in 2008. In his first full season, he compiled 16 wins, 210.1 innings and 152 strikeouts. The 25-year-old southpaw should be even better in 2009 with a year of experience under his belt.

Matsuzaka, 28, is arguably the most talented and most frustrating pitcher on the staff. He has about six pitches in his repertoire, he gets good movement on all of them and he sits around 92 mph with his fastball. Matsuzaka won 18 games in 2008 but the scary thing is that he should have won even more. If he can learn to trust his stuff and stop nibbling, he could win a lot of games in 2009.

Beckett had some injury concerns of his own in 2008 and won just 12 games after racking up 20 in 2007. He should be a good bet for about 200 innings and close to 200 strikeouts. If you’re looking for Fantasy impact, grab Beckett followed by Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny and Wakefield.

The depth that the organzation has is even more impressive given how Boston acquired the six pitchers above. Lester was a home-grown project, having been selected out of high school in the second round of the 2002 draft. Matsuzaka was an international free agent signing out of Japan. Wakefield was rescued off the scrap heap after Pittsburgh (of all places) gave up on him and released him. Beckett was acquired via a trade with Florida (although Boston gave up Hanley Ramirez for him). Penny and Smoltz were then added via free agency. Good clubs find multiple ways to obtain talent; Boston is quite obviously one of them. And Fantasy Baseball owners can reap the rewards in 2009.

As mentioned in Part 1 of my look at Boston’s starting pitching depth, the organization is blessed with an abundance of hurlers. The club has six veteran pitchers penciled in for five spots in the 2009 rotation. But there are four more talented pitchers standings on the outside edge of the mound looking in: Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Junichi Tazawa.

Masterson has the best shot at breaking camp with Boston, even if five of the six veteran hurlers are healthy. The right-hander appeared in 36 games with the big club in 2008, including nine starts, and acquitted himself nicely. Armed with a bowling ball that averages around 90 mph, as well as a nice slider, Masterson induces a lot of ground balls (54.3 GB% in 2008). He just needs to show a little more control (4.08 BB/9) and he could be dominating – as long as he has competent infield defence behind him. Masterson likely won’t be a huge asset to Fantasy Baseball owners, unless he wriggles his way into a starting gig because he’s not going to wrestle the closer’s job away from Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen.

The 2008 season was supposed to be a breakout party for Buchholz, but that obviously did not happen. After making a name for himself in 2007 by throwing a no-hitter in September in just his second big league start, the right-hander (who rarely struggled even in the minors) regressed considerably and posted a 6.75 ERA in 16 games (15 starts). He allowed 93 hits in 76 innings and posted an out-of-character walk rate of 4.86 BB/9. Relegated to the minors for the remainder of the season, Buchholz rebounded which gives hope for 2009 and beyond. He just needs another opportunity, which will not come easily in Boston.

Bowden has quietly crept up the organizational ladder since being selected 47th overall in the 2005 amateur baseball draft. The 22-year-old hurler has a little more youth on his side than Masterson and Buchholz. He also has just 45 innings of experience above Double-A, so more time in Triple-A certainly will not hurt his value. Regardless, he held his own in one emergency big league start so there is no reason to think he won’t be ready if called upon.

Tazawa was Boston’s big international free agent signing this off-season. He was given a three-year, $3.3 million dollar big league contract after signing out of Japan, but the expectation is that he will begin his North American career in Double-A. As a Japanese amateur, there is not a whole lot of concrete data on him but reports suggest he has a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a plus breaking ball. Don’t expect the 22-year-old to surface in Boston for an significant period of time in 2009 but keep him in mind for 2010 and beyond.

From a Fantasy perspective, you have to consider Masterson as having the most impact potential this coming season. Buchholz would be next in line, followed by Bowden and the mysterious Mr. Tazawa. All four pitchers would have a pretty good shot of beginning 2009 in the starting rotation for most other teams in Major League Baseball. Given Boston’s position as a ‘Big Market Team’ you have to be impressed by the fact the club puts so much effort into developing and holding on to the homemade talent.

Unless you are lucky enough to have Joe Mauer or Geovany Soto gracing your Fantasy roster, the catching position can be a bit of a headache. It can even occasionally do more harm than good. As a result, Fantasy owners are always on the lookout for catchers with upside. The Kansas City Royals organization currently has four catchers vying for two roster spots. Incumbents Miguel Olivo and John Buck certainly do not inspire a lot of hope.

Olivo had a respectable season in the American League in 2008 after spending the previous two years with Florida. He had the second highest batting average of his career (.255) but continued to be allergic to walks with just seven (!) in 306 at-bats. He has just 79 walks in 640 career games. On the plus side, Olivo showed a little more power in 2008, while posting a career high in slugging (.444) and his second-best ISO (.190). At the age of 30, the right-handed hitting catcher may be able to sustain this level of offence for another year or two. That said, Russell Branyan had a better contact rate than Olivo last season (68.5% to 66.8%).

Buck has never lived up to his potential due to an inability to make consistent contact (although he bested Olivo at 75.2% in 2008) and to hit for a respectable average. He has a career batting average of .234, but has hit just .223 in the past two seasons. Buck walks a little bit more than Olivo (He at least breaks the .300 OBP mark,albeit barely at .304). The 28-year-old backstop has traditionally provided a little bit of pop at the plate (He hit a career-high 18 home runs in 347 at-bats in 2007) but his slugging percentage was just .365 in 2008, along with an ISO of .141. Buck’s hold on a Major League roster spot should be tenuous.

The team also added ex-Braves prospect Brayan Pena to the 40-man roster this past fall. He still offers some upside even at the age of 26 and with just 71 career Major League games under his belt. In the past three Triple-A seasons, Pena has hit at least .301 and he has not struck out more than 11% of the time. He doesn’t walk either; 10% is the highest rate during that same three-year span. His ability to handle the bat and work the zone (as well as his switch-hitting capability) might make him a nice complement to Olivo.

Former Mets and Tigers backstop Vance Wilson was also brought in on a minor league deal after missing all of 2007 and 2008 due to not one, but two Tommy John surgeries on his elbow. It’s hard to know if he has anything to offer offensively or defensively. Even before the injury, Wilson was a .240-.250 hitter with modest power.

The best pairing of catchers in KC, from an offensive perspective, appears to be Olivo and Pena, but Buck no doubt has the inside track on the second spot because he is due more than $2 million in arbitration. If Pena is given playing time, keep an eye on him.

Continuing our series on how luck effected a player’s season, today I will look at Adrian Beltre. I will once again refer you to Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix’s great work on xBABIP which I will make reference to. Additionally, BABIP in these posts is defined (H-HR)/(PA-HR-K-BB-HBP).

Adrian Beltre is one of the best 3B in the game today. Over the past 5 years, Beltre has been worth an average of 4.9 wins per season. Unfortunately for fantasy players, though, nearly half his value is in his glove. Additionally most of his offensive value lies in his monster 2004 season. Last year, however, Beltre was a decent fantasy 3B. His average was sub-par, but he made up for it with 25 HR, 81 R, 87 RBI, and a handful of steals. Beltre achieved these numbers despite battling some pretty poor luck. Adrian logged his worst BABIP since 2002 (.276). This killed his average, as well as hurting his ability to score and drive in runs. Beltre ’s xBABIP on the year was .319 which would have made his numbers a lot better.

If we control his statistics for the new BABIP of .319 (essentially strip the luck out of his balls-in-play), then Beltre gains 19 hits. This bumps his batting average considerably since he is not that prone to the strike out. Adding in the 5 doubles he would have likely gained, Beltre ’s slash line goes up to .300/.358/.500/.858 form the previous line of .266/..327/.457/.784. His increase in times on base and hits also helps him generate 7 more runs and ten more RBIs (bringing his totals to 81 and 87 respectively). It is safe to say that Beltre ’s poor luck had quite the effect on his fantasy season.

Going forward, I would not expect Beltre to have the same poor offensive season he had last year. Since 2002 Beltre has topped 20 HR all but one season, and he has also had 25 or more the last three years. If we pencil him in at 25 HR again and a reasonable .290 average, then his numbers should come close to matching what he missed out on last year. It would not be unreasonable to expect him to be a top 5-10 fantasy 3B. The one issue I see with Beltre is the team he plays for. The M’s have done little to improve upon an offense that was second-to-last in the AL in runs-scored, therefore it might be a struggle for him to break 85 runs or 85 runs-batted-in. If he steals 10 bases, though, you may take a little less scoring and power.

Since Derek Lowe was moved back to the starting rotation in 2002, he has been a model of consistency. Between the Red Sox and Dodgers over that time frame, an average season looked like this: 15-11, 208 IP, 3.83 FIP, 129 Ks, and a WHIP of 1.27. Since becoming a Dodger, his statistical resume is almost identical: 14-12, 213 IP, 3.77 FIP, 141 Ks, and 1.23 WHIP. As you can see, his move to Dodger-stadium has really helped his numbers (except W-L). The amazing thing about Lowe, though, is the lack of variation in his success. He has never gone over 220 IP or under 180, he has only 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 with only one under 3, he has yet to strike-out more than 150 without falling under 100, etc.

Last year he also benefitted from a very good defense behind him. Blake DeWitt, James Loney, the roving SS, and (not so much) Jeff Kent made up a pretty good defensive infield to gobble up all those groundballs. Which brings me to the most important aspect of Lowe’s game: his penchant for pounding the ball in the dirt. Since 2002, he has finished 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 2nd in GB%. It is rates like that that make him so consistent.

So what do we see in the crystal ball for Lowe next year now that he has signed with the Braves? I would expect that his numbers should only improve. While Dodger Stadium is considered a low run-scoring environment, Turner Field is fairly close. According to statcorner.com’s park factors, Turner Stadium rates as just a bit higher run-scoring environment (99.6 to 97.6) while being a tougher place to hit homeruns (99.1 to 111.1). Lowe will also likely see an improved infield defense behind him with the Braves great infield defense.

Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel all see Lowe having another solid year, and there is little reason to doubt that he will continue to do what he has done so well in the past. Lowe has made himself a very successful pitcher by not beating himself, letting his fielders play, and limiting the long-ball. This is a recipe for success that should continue through this year and beyond.

The Toronto Blue Jays organization has been stockpiling left-handed pitchers in the last couple of seasons, which has created impressive depth. At this point in the off-season, the organization could utilize upwards of 10 southpaws in 2009, should the need arise. With left-handed pitching always in short supply around the Majors, the organization could also use that depth to acquire some much-needed offence.

The majority of the left-handed pitching for the Jays comes in the form of relievers. Those relievers include B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Fabio Castro, Reid Santos, and Davis Romero. The starting pitchers include youngsters David Purcey, Ricky Romero and Bill Murphy.

From a Fantasy perspective, Ryan is the most likely pitcher to have an impact in 2009. The closer missed almost all of 2007 after having Tommy John surgery but returned for 2008 and saved 32 games in 36 attempts. Despite the save total, Ryan’s stuff did not return to its pre-surgery levels and he lost a couple miles per hour off both his fastball and slider. His command also wavered and his walk rate worsened by more than one walk per nine innings from his days as a dominating reliever. On the plus side, he still saved quite a few games despite not having his best stuff. Ryan is now even further removed from his surgery so there is some hope that he will regain some velocity on his pitches in 2009. If he does, he has the potential to reach the 40-save plateau.

Downs has been a valuable pitcher for the Jays after being saved from the scrap heap prior to the 2005 season. In the past two seasons, the reliever has appeared in 147 games for the Jays and has a FIP of about 3.30 during that time frame. In 2008, the left-hander allowed just 54 hits in 70.2 innings of work and posted rates of 3.44 BB/9 and 7.26 K/9. The former starting pitcher has saved his career with the move to the bullpen but the Jays are considering stretching him out in spring training with an outside chance of giving him a starter’s role in 2009. He’s added 3 mph to his fastball in the past three seasons but he’s also gone from relying on four pitches to two. It will be interesting to see how Downs responds in spring training; he’s someone to keep an eye on.

Both Tallet and Carlson could have significant roles on the Jays in 2009 but neither should have a Fantasy impact.

Among the starters, Purcey figures to have the best shot of beginning the season in Toronto. Last season, the former first-round pick finally improved his command and control enough to pitch at the Major League level. The 26-year-old allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work and posted rates of 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. At 6’5”, 240 pounds, he has a workhorse body and the raw stuff to succeed, as long as he can find the strike zone. With a number of holes in the starting rotation, Purcey will have a great shot at pitching 180-200 innings.

Romero is another former first-round selection that has struggled with consistency in the minors, in part due to a lack of command. He finished the 2008 season in Triple-A and showed enough improvement to give hope that he could contribute at the Major League level in 2009. In seven starts, he allowed 42 hits in 42.2 innings. He posted rates of 4.22 BB/9 and 8.02 K/9. When he’s on, Romero works in the low 90s with a good change-up. His breaking balls are inconsistent but the curveball has plus potential. The 24-year-old probably won’t begin the season in Toronto but he could be racking up big league innings by the end of the season.