Some guys get all the breaks and some guys get no breaks. Joe Koshansky of the Colorado Rockies falls squarely into the latter group, thanks in no small part to the presence of Mr. Rockie Todd Helton.

Koshansky has slugged 83 home runs in the past three seasons, including 21 in Triple-A in 2007 and 31 in Triple-A in 2008. The 26-year-old first baseman has also shown the ability to hit for a respectable average in Triple-A, having posted lines of .295/.380/.490 in 2007 and .300/.380/.600 in 2008. His ISO was an eye-popping .300 (anyone with an ISO above .200 is considered a power hitter). The left-handed hitter was no softy against southpaws in 2008. He managed a line of .310/.372/.612 in 116 at-bats.

The former sixth round drafted pick out of the University of Virginia, who signed as a senior selection, is running out of time to prove himself. He’ll be 27 in May, which is about the time power hitters tend to hit their stride. Koshansky is roughly the same build as Richie Sexson (although he’s about four inches shorter than the former Cleveland Indians first baseman). Sexson lost his mojo at the age of 32.

Koshansky’s biggest weakness would be the strikeout. He has posted strikeout rates in the past three seasons of 26.8%, 25.7%, and 34.6%. The first baseman has also begun to earn a bit of a reputation as a possible Quad-A slugger thanks to his struggles at the Major League level in the past two seasons, albeit in a small sample size. Koshansky has a career line of .180/.236/.440 with three home runs in 50 at-bats. Both the CHONE and Marcel projection systems see Koshansky as a .250 hitter. CHONE sees Koshansky as having the ability to slug 25 home runs at the Major League level with regular playing time. Those numbers are not outstanding, but there are a few teams in Major League Baseball that could use that kind of power production.

At 35, Helton’s best days as a power hitter are behind him after managing home run totals of 15, 17, and seven in the past three seasons. Even so, Helton is still a .300 hitter (the injury-marred 2008 season aside) and, in his last two healthy seasons in 2006 and 2007, he drove in a total of 207 runs. He also scored 172 runs. Coming off a poor season due to injuries, and with three more years plus an option remaining on his contract totaling just shy of $60 million, Helton is not going anywhere.

It’s also disconcerting for Koshansky’s future in Colorado that he did not receive more opportunities in 2008 after Helton appeared in just 83 games. The Louisiana native was given just eight starts at first base last season and the club moved third baseman Garrett Atkins across the diamond to allow Ian Stewart the opportunity to play everyday at the hot corner during Helton’s time off.

Clearly, if Koshansky is going to earn a fair shot at a starting role at the Major League level it is not going to come in Colorado. Teams that could use a first baseman or designated hitter include Washington, Florida, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), and Baltimore (although that club has a crowded outfield picture).

Garrett Atkins drew plenty of interest in the off-season from major league teams. The Phillies, Twins, Rays and Angels have all been linked to Atkins since the end of the 2008 season. But fantasy owners are not showing quite the same interest. Many people view the hot corner as a weak position, yet the third baseman for the Rockies has an ADP in the mid 70s, meaning he’s not going on average until the seventh round.

Atkins put up a .286-21-99-86-1 line last year. These were declines across the board from his standout 2006 season, when he was a top-20 hitter and had a $31 fantasy value. His current ADP values him right around the numbers he put up last year, meaning that fantasy players are not counting on much of a bounce-back season from the 29-year old. This pretty much matches the three projection systems, which show a bump in average but have the rest of Atkins’ numbers maintaining 2008 levels.

Is there any reason to think Atkins can improve upon his 2008 output?

His BABIP for road games last year was just .251, which led to a .233 average away from Coors Field. It is reasonable to think he will improve upon this and add some batting average to his line. But Atkins had good power numbers away from home, hitting 12 of his 21 home runs in road parks. So, even with a more normal BABIP, he’s not likely to add much in the power department.

The other thing that jumps out is Atkins’ split by position. Last year he split time between his normal 3B spot and he also saw considerable time at 1B, filling in for the injured Todd Helton. Here are his splits by position:

3B: .307/.338/.485 in 396 PA
1B: .258/.316/.407 in 263 PA

Prior to 2008, Atkins had appeared in just 10 games at first base. Helton had back surgery at the end of September and his status for the start of the season is up in the air. But the Rockies might let Joe Koshansky fill in for Helton this year after his big season at Triple-A, where he went .300-31-121 in 457 at-bats.

The average fan thinks anyone can play first base and not have it affect their offensive numbers. But players from Mickey Mantle to Mike Piazza have found out otherwise. Perhaps Atkins’ position split last year was nothing more than a fluke. But perhaps it wasn’t.

We all want to draft undervalued players. We search for sleepers and reach for them during the draft, hoping they can match our expectations. But with Atkins, we have a player who is being valued at what he did in 2008. Unlike with our favorite sleeper, we know what Atkins is capable of at the major league level – we saw it three years ago in 2006.

If you pick at the top of your draft and don’t end up with Alex Rodriguez or David Wright, it makes sense to target Atkins either at the end of the sixth round or beginning of the seventh. This is in line with what he did last year and if he just duplicates what he did in 2008 you are in okay shape. Yet you still have the upside potential of a healthy player not far removed from a $31 season.

That seems like a better idea than reaching for Pablo Sandoval in the 15th round.

Today, we’ll wrap up our look at the top offensive prospects in Double-A with the Eastern League. In case you haven’t gotten the chance to check out the lists for the High-A level and the other two Double-A levels or you would just like a refresher, here they are:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League

The Eastern League list leads off with a familiar face who might just be the best prospect in the game, and the rankings feature depth to boot. Among those receiving consideration but not appearing in the top five: outfielders Austin Jackson (Yankees), Nicholas Evans (Mets), Daniel Murphy (Mets), Jose Tabata (Pirates), Nolan Reimold (Orioles), shortstop Jason Donald (Phillies) and third baseman Wes Hodges (Indians). Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson missed the 200 PA cut-off.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Eastern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.00), Triples (1.00), Home Runs (1.00)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .472 wOBA (.365/.460/.626)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Bowie): Runs (0.95), Hits (0.97), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (1.03)
Park-Adjusted Line: .376/.470/.639
Major League Equivalency: .295/.395/.479

I think that we have run out of superlatives to describe Matt Wieters. The switch-hitting, power-hitting Georgia Tech product also paced out Carolina League list, and what was said of him there still applies:

“Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks. He can drive the ball as far as anyone. Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick (High-A) was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.”

Check out Wieters’ Major League Equivalency at Bowie- his performance basically reminds one of…well, Joe Mauer with more power. Gregg Zaun is the O’s starting catcher for the moment. But when he steps aside and reclaims his role as the “Practically Perfect Backup Catcher”, Wieters figures to rake from day one.

2. Travis Snider, Blue Jays: .366 wOBA (.262/.357/.461)
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/DH
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .276/.367/.459
MLE: .222/.315/.354

21 in February, Snider will never be known for his defensive prowess- at 5-11 and 245 pounds, his build brings to mind that of Matt Stairs. The lefty might be relegated to DH duty in the long run, but man, can he hit. Taken with the 14th overall selection in the 2006 amateur draft, the Washington prep product has compiled a career .299/.375/.513 line in the minors, and he more than held his own during a short stint with the Jays this past September, batting .301/.338/.466 in 80 PA. At New Hampshire, Snider posted a near-.200 ISO as a 21 year-old while also showcasing a good eye with a 12.6 BB%. His contact rate is somewhat concerning (he whiffed 36.1% of the time at High-A and 32% at AA), but Toronto’s best young hitter possesses the secondary skills to make up for a middling batting average.

3. Louis Marson, Phillies: .391 wOBA (.314/.433/.416)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Reading): R (1.03), H (1.00), 2B (0.96), HR (1.22)
PAL: .317/.433/.416
MLE: .249/.369/.322

Lou Marson’s career got off to something of a slow start (from 2004-2006, he posted OBP’s between .329-.343 and SLG%’s between .351-.389), but he’s made major strides over the past two seasons. The 4th-round pick from the ’04 draft has uncanny control of the strike zone- he drew a free pass an astounding 17.4% of the time at Reading. While no one questions Marson’s plate approach, there are concerns over his power ceiling (Marson’s ISO was just .102). It’s possible that the walks will dry up somewhat at the highest level (pitchers might not be so stringent with a low-power guy with a great eye- the worst that can happen in most cases is a single). If you want to be really optimistic, you could think of Marson as Russell Martin-lite, though Kurt Suzuki might be a more reasonable approximation.

4. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays: .348 wOBA (.282/.302/.496)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .292/.311/.485
MLE: .243/.262/.388

One could make the argument that Arencibia should rank ahead of Marson on the basis of his power- Arencibia has a career .481 slugging percentage in the minors as well as a .214 ISO at New Hampshire on the heels of a .246 showing at High-A Dunedin. While Marson’s biggest question is his pop, Arencibia’s most glaring weakness is his plate discipline. Arencibia wasn’t exactly patient at Dunedin (4.2 BB%) and his hacking tendency only intensified upon reaching Double-A: he walked just 2.6% of the time at New Hampshire, posting a ghastly 0.13 BB/K ratio. Arencibia ranks well on the basis of his offensive thunder at a premium position, but major league pitchers are going to carve him up if he doesn’t learn to show a little restraint.

5. Fernando Martinez, Mets: .346 wOBA (.287/.340/.432)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: Corner OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Binghamton): R (1.05), H (1.05), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .274/.328/.416
MLE: .222/.278/.328

Martinez is the most polarizing name on this list- it seems as though some are very strong proponents of the $1.3 million Dominican bonus baby, feeling that he has performed quite well in advanced leagues at an exceptionally young age. Others are less enthusiastic, particularly noting his durability issues (according to Baseball America, a bone bruise and a knee sprain in ’06, a broken hamate bone in ’07 and hamstring problems in ’08). Setting aside his numerous ailments, Martinez possesses a tremendous amount of talent. The lefty batter has not set the world afire during his pro career, but his numbers become considerably more impressive when you check his birth certificate- Martinez was several years younger than most of his peers. How many teenagers could avoid embarrassing themselves just two steps away from the majors, let alone hold their own like Martinez did?

Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik announced yesterday that both Brandon Morrow and Aaron Heilman with have the opportunity to compete in spring training for 2009 starting gigs.

The room is there to accommodate both pitchers – if the organization wants to admit its mistakes and place both disappointing starters – Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista – in the bullpen. The oft-injured Erik Bedard is also not a good bet to spend a full season in the rotation after having his frayed labrum repaired in September. The only real locks in the rotation, at this point, are Felix Hernandez and Jarrod Washburn.

Morrow certainly has more upside – and fantasy potential – than Heilman. The 24-year-old hurler, who has spent the majority of the past two seasons in the bullpen, was hard to hit in 2008 and allowed just 40 hits in 64.2 innings. Batters made contact against Morrow 72.7% of the time (compared to King Felix, for example, at 80.8%).

He also has very good stuff – with a fastball that sits around 95 mph, as well as splitter and a slider. Unfortunately, his repertoire is fastball-heavy at this point and he will have to sharpen up the command and control of his secondary pitches to succeed as a starter.
Morrow’s overall control – or lack thereof – could be his undoing as a starter. His walk rate was a startling 7.11 BB/9 in 2007 but it improved to 4.73 in 2008, which is still far too high.

Heilman certainly cannot compete with Morrow’s raw stuff, but the right-hander has a history of solid command and control. That deserted him in 2008, though, and he posted an out-of-character walk rate of 5.45 BB/9. He was also more hittable in 2008 than in previous seasons and allowed 75 hits in 76 innings. At 30 years of age, Heilman should be peaking as a pitcher, so his 2008 season is a little disturbing. He is also moving to league that produces more offence, which could further muddy his numbers in 2009.

By moving both Morrow and Heilman to the rotation, it would severely damage the Seattle bullpen, which lacks proven, veteran relievers. He may not like it, but remaining in the bullpen will probably benefit both Heilman (Can he hold up health-wise as a starter? Probably not.) and the Mariners. It should also help fantasy owners because the right-hander would not be a top-tiered pitching option and, as a late-inning reliever, he would likely help preserve some of Morrow’s wins.

Shin-Soo Choo, once a top prospect for the Mariners, received the most playing time of his major league career for the Indians last year. In his first year back after having Tommy John surgery, he set the record for most hits in a season by a Korean-born player. Choo’s 98 hits eclipsed the mark of 86 set by Hee Seop Choi in 2004.

The knock on Choo is that he is a platoon player or fourth outfielder. But in 2008, the lefty hitting Choo posted a .286/.345/.455 line versus southpaws, albeit in 84 plate appearances. But considering how well he hits righties (.317/.413/.579 last year), Choo apparently has earned a full-time starting job as Spring Training approaches.

Grady Sizemore is a fixture in center for Cleveland and he will be flanked by Choo and Ben Francisco. But the big unknown is Matt LaPorta, the key player received by the Tribe in the C.C. Sabathia deal last summer. LaPorta was enjoying a standout season before suffering a concussion in the Olympics. He will most likely start the season in the minors but it would be no surprise if LaPorta was in the majors before September, with the big question of if he will be an outfielder or a first baseman.

Choo had a .373 BABIP last season, which would have tied for third in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. But as fantastic as that was, it was in line with what he had done in previous stints in the majors. His lifetime mark in the category now sits at .369 in 509 at-bats.

While Choo may or may not be able to sustain a high BABIP the big question is what can we expect from him in the power department. Last year’s .240 ISO mark was well beyond anything he had posted previously, either in the majors or the minors. But a significant portion of that was from doubles, as he smacked 28 two-baggers in 317 at-bats.

Some might be concerned about his 16.1 percent HR/FB mark last year, but in the only other season in the majors where he had sizable playing time, Choo posted a 14.3 percent HR/FB mark.

Assuming Choo holds down a full-time job for the year, he could post a .290 average along with 15-20 HRs and 8-10 steals, too. If he was a first baseman, we might call him Derrek Lee. And for a guy who goes undrafted in many early mocks, that’s great production. Make sure to have Choo on your list of players to target in the late rounds of your draft.

Perhaps no player in fantasy baseball has a wider range of potential outcomes than Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan. A former hockey player in the Canadian Junior Leagues, Morgan is really fast and he has posted a good batting average in two limited stretches in the majors. He is in a battle for a starting job in Spring Training and there is a strong possibility he starts April as the team’s leadoff man and everyday left fielder.

If Morgan holds down the starting job all season his upside is 2003-vintage Juan Pierre. That year, Pierre hit .305, stole 65 bases and had roughly a $30 season despite hitting just one home run.

But even if Morgan wins the job in Spring Training over Steve Pearce, there’s no guarantee he holds on to the job, as Andrew McCutchen will likely join the Pirates at some point in the 2009 season and take over an everyday job in the outfield.

And there’s always the battle with Pearce, who has been a better hitter than Morgan throughout their careers in the minors and who has the power bat that teams like to see from their corner outfielders. The Pirates seem worried about Pearce’s ability to hit off-speed pitches and have hinted that he may need additional seasoning in the minors.

So, if Morgan wins the battle in Spring Training, how likely is he to keep the job?

The first thing that jumps out about Morgan is his BABIP. Last year in Pittsburgh it was .367 and that hardly seems a mark that he could maintain going forward. But Morgan has always posted high BABIPs in the minors. He makes decent contact, hits line drives, and has the tremendous speed – pretty much the exact profile of a player who can post high BABIPs.

Can Morgan supplement his average with a good OBP? He’s never had a great walk season and there is no reason to expect him to in 2009. Yet, he should be able to post an OBP of around .350 if he can hit .300, which would be borderline acceptable. For a comparison, Pierre’s OBP was .361 in 2003.

Is he a good enough fielder to hold down a corner spot with no power? While defensive ability currently has no value in fantasy baseball, in this particular case it will help determine Morgan’s playing time. He does not look like a good outfielder running routes to the ball, but his UZR numbers are through the roof. Last year, only two qualified left fielders posted a double-digit UZR/150. In 45 games last year, Morgan’s UZR/150 extrapolated to 22.4, which would have been behind only Carl Crawford among left fielders.

Does the manager seem willing to go to war with Morgan? At the end of last season, Pirates manager John Russell said, “He did some really good things. He was exciting. He really added a dimension to our offense. His missing three games is not going to affect our evaluation.” In December, MLB.com had Russell suggesting “the Pirates will start the season with Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss manning the outfield.”

But while all of the above might paint a rosy picture, keep in mind that his MLE from his 327 at-bats in Triple-A last year show a player with a .266/.310/.324 line. Do you place more value on 327 Triple-A at-bats or the 160 he had with the Pirates? And even if you favor the at-bats in Pittsburgh, how much faith do you have that he can maintain the ultra-high BABIP?

Morgan simply has too much volatility to be anything other than a late-round pick in most fantasy leagues. It’s near certain that some owners will fall in love with his SB potential and draft him earlier than that, especially if the Pirates announce that he’s won the job before your league drafts. But remember that McLouth and Moss are definitely above him in the pecking order and that McCutchen and Pearce (and even Craig Monroe) are looming if he stumbles.

When the Chicago Cubs inked talented-but-nomadic outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Felix Pie. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was ranked by Baseball America as Chicago’s best prospect in both 2006 and 2007, but it seemed as though the organization had soured on the Dominican Republic native. Despite a fairly impressive minor league dossier (Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter) and above-average range, Felix evidently made a bad impression in two stale cups of coffee with the Cubbies in ’07 and ’08: in 260 career PA, the lanky lefty hit .223/.284/.331.

With Pie out of minor league options and the Cubs looking for some additional pitching depth, the North Siders have reportedly shipped their erstwhile top prospect to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 25 year-old lefty Garrett Olson and A-Ball righty Henry Williamson. The merits of this deal from Chicago’s standpoint can certainly be debated- Olson has endured quite the rough introduction to the majors as well, with a 5.28 FIP in 165 innings. His work in the minors (8.91 K/9, 2.93 BB/9) suggests he’s capable of better. However, as a finesse, fly-ball starter, it’s difficult to project Olson as more than a back-end starter. Will the Cubs come to regret letting their former star pupil leave town for a B-level pitching prospect?

Pie is coming off of just a fair season at AAA Iowa, having batted .287/.336/.466 in 368 PA. His walk rate has never been especially high (6.4 BB% in ’08, 8.2% career), but the 6-2, 170 pounder did display decent pop (.179 ISO) and only struck out 16.1% of the time. The previous season, he scorched the corn fields to the tune of .362/.410/.563 in 250 PA. That showing was surely aided by a ridiculous .411 BABIP, but the line serves to show that that it wasn’t all that long ago that Pie was raking and looking like a future pillar for the Cubs.

So, Pie isn’t coming off of a great season, but he still held his own in AAA as a 23 year-old at an up-the-middle position. But with the rangy Adam Jones patrolling center field (+8.5 UZR/150 during the ’08 season) and the terminally underrated Nick Markakis holding down right field, Pie might head to the bench for the time being and perhaps take over for left fielder Luke Scott at some point. Another option allows the O’s to move Scott to DH and insert Pie in left on Opening Day. Here’s what Rotoworld had to say about Pie playing left field in Baltimore:

“Not yet 24 years old, Pie was a nice target as a true center fielder with power and speed, but the Orioles are an odd fit with Adam Jones already patrolling center. Pie is for left field, but he doesn’t offer nearly enough offensively to carry the position.”

Now, Rotoworld is a tremendous website and offers a level of insight that few others match. However, I have to take issue with this statement, and others like it that I have seen over the winter. I think that there’s a sort of misconception with players like Pie, who might not at first blush appear capable of “carrying” a corner outfield position.

Let’s call it the “Randy Winn Effect.” Winn, as you probably know, is the right fielder for the San Francisco Giants. Upon first glance, he might appear to be ill-suited for a corner outfield spot- after all, he has slugged just .445 and .426 over the past two seasons. However, Winn offers something that few corner outfielders provide: plus defense. Winn has posted UZR/150 figures of 11.9 in 2007 and 18.9 in 2008. While his bat might be average by positional standards, he adds a significant amount of additional value with the leather compared to his plodding peers. In fact, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in Win Values this past season, with 4.6. While that was a high-water mark, Winn has been worth an average of 2.9 wins over the past three seasons.

Which brings us back to Pie. Sure, Pie’s offensive output at this point in his career might look ordinary, perhaps even somewhat below average for a corner outfielder. However, one has to consider defense as part of the equation. Pie might not hit like some of the more thunderous bats that typify a corner position, but his level of defensive ability figures to be significantly higher than most of his peers. Those additional runs that he saves in the field count- he adds value in an area where most of his contemporaries harm theirs. You might hear an analyst say that a player like Pie is “wasted” in a corner spot. That’s just not true- the offensive standard might be higher in left field than in center, but Pie’s range saves runs compared to the average left fielder. Those runs count, too.

Let’s give Pie a hypothetical 600 PA for the Orioles in 2009. CHONE, a projection system that incorporates minor league and major league data, pegs Pie for a .333 wOBA, just about dead-on average. Given his sturdy minor league record, that seems reasonable. Maybe a tad optimistic in his first crack at regular playing time, but let’s stick with it for now.

With a .333 wOBA, Pie projects to contribute about 0 runs above average with the bat. Pie has solid scouting reports afield and has done nice work in a small number of innings for the Cubs. As a left fielder, let’s say that Pie is a +7.5 run fielder. Adding in the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games) and adjusting for replacement level (+20 runs), Pie projects to be worth a little north of 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the O’s. For comparison, newly-signed Phillie Raul Ibanez was worth 2.2 WAR for the Mariners in 2008, and free agent Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 WAR. Both of those guys are better hitters than Pie, but Ibanez and Dunn punt so much of their value with the leather that the overall level of value between the three projects to be negligible.

While Felix Pie’s stock might have taken somewhat of a hit with a rough introduction to the big leagues, he will play the entire 2009 season as a 24 year-old, retains some promise with the bat and projects to be a significantly better fielder than his peers in a corner outfield spot. His contribution to the O’s might not pop out at one the way that a monstrous batting line does, but Pie’s combination of decent hitting and slick glove work makes him yet another interesting position player for an organization that already houses Markakis, Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Pie is worth a look in deeper leagues and should aid a mediocre Baltimore rotation in the immediate future. Beyond that, the outlook could be rosier if Pie takes flight with his tether now removed by the O’s.

Chicago’s loss is the Baltimore’s gain: long-term, Pie should provide decent numbers with the stick while teaming with Markakis and Jones to form an athletic, run-saving outfield trio. When pitching prospects like Christopher Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz break into the big leagues, they’ll be flanked by three rangy outfielders who will cover the gaps with ease.

Chad Gaudin is not a name that should pop up in most 2009 Fantasy Drafts. The Chicago Cubs right-hander is currently earmarked as a reliever on a very deep pitching staff. The starting rotation currently featuring Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, and Sean Marshall (Who recently received a vote of confidence for the last spot).

Jason Marquis was originally slated for the spot before he was dispatched to Colorado for reliever Luis Vizcaino. The Cubs also explored the possibility of acquiring ace Jake Peavy from the Padres, but those talks fizzled. Angel Guzman is another option for the fifth spot, but he has had trouble staying healthy. Jeff Samardzija, a former minor league starter, had a nice debut in the bullpen but his control is iffy. Rich Hill, speaking of iffy control, is busy trying to scare off Steve Blass.

Gaudin, despite his history in the starting rotation, continues to get overlooked. The good news for the right-hander, though, is that the rotation includes Harden. The Canadian made 25 starts for the A’s and Cubs in 2008. The only time he’s started more than 20 games prior to that came all the way back in 2004. That means there will likely be five to 10 starts available at some point in 2009 for a deserving Cubs pitcher.

If Gaudin does get a shot at starting, you may want to pick him up for that stretch. In 2007, the right-hander made 34 starts for Oakland and missed pitching 200 innings by just two-thirds of an inning, so he’s durable despite his 5’10” stature. He also racked up 154 strikeouts during that time. The downside, though, is that he allowed 205 hits and 100 walks. His ERA was a respectable 4.42.

Although Oakland plays in a pitcher’s park, Gaudin actually allowed a lower OPS on the road: .762 versus .790. If anything, the right-hander tired in the second half while pitching the highest innings total in his career. In the first half, he allowed a line of .246/.328/.341; it rose to .290/.385/.515 in his final 16 starts.

Pitching mainly out of the pen in 2008, Gaudin still allowed a few too many hits (92 in 90 innings) but his control rate improved from 4.52 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.70 BB/9. Whether that was directly related to pitching out of the bullpen or simply a point of maturation remains to be seen.

His repertoire remained almost exactly the same from 2007 to 2008 despite the change in role. Gaudin’s fastball sat right around 90 mph on average, although he utilized his slider six percent more often as a reliever (at the expense of the fastball). His change-up was used eight percent of the time in both 2007 and 2008.

The other noticeable change between 2007 and 2008 came on first-pitch strikes. Gaudin pumped in a first-pitch strike five percent more often in 2008 than in the previous season, which could very well be a sign that he is maturing as a pitcher. Despite his six seasons in the Majors, he is still just 25 years of age.

If Gaudin can take the improvements he made in 2008 in the bullpen and apply them during an opportunity in the starting rotation, then alert Fantasy owners could receive a boost at some point during the 2009 season.

The Oakland Athletics organization has a lot of depth in the outfield. Full-time jobs are guaranteed for just two players: newly acquired star Matt Holliday and whiff king Jack Cust. The former will be the A’s No. 1 offensive cog in the lineup and should bat third or fourth with plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. The fear, though, is that his offensive ceiling has been overrated by playing in Colorado for his entire career to this point. And Oakland is far from a hitter’s park.

Holliday’s career splits are .357/.423/.645 at home and .280/.348/.455 on the road. Last season, Holliday’s OPS was .892 on the road. In Oakland, only Cust had a slugging percentage more than .390 with 200 or more at-bats. Even if the club’s new slugger does regress to his career road splits both at home and while touring the league, then he is still an offensive upgrade for the club and should drive in his fair share of runs.

Cust’s playing time could be affected by the signing of veteran slugger Jason Giambi, who will spend time at designated hitter and first base. Cust will spend time at designated hitter and left-field. He has some of the most intriguing power in the game but the strikeouts – 197 in 481 at-bats last season – hurt. Cust’s value is also negatively impacted by a low batting average (.239 career) and lower-than-you’d-like RBI totals (159 in the last two seasons) in part because he hit just .231 with runners in scoring position last season.

Someone has to play center-field in Oakland and it will likely be incumbent Ryan Sweeney, who spent 51 games there last season. He is not a ton of help to Fantasy teams because he doesn’t hit for much power (five homers in 2008), he doesn’t run a lot (nine stolen bases), and his batting average is modest (.286). At his best, Sweeney projects to be a 15-15 player.

Both Matt Murton, acquired last season in the Rich Harden/Chad Gaudin trade, and Chris Denorfia are quality fourth outfielders and would have an outside shot of playing everyday for a few teams in Major League Baseball. In 2006 with Chicago, Murton hit .297/.365/.444 in 144 games but he has struggled for playing time ever since, mainly because there has always been someone just a little bit better than him on the roster. The former supplemental first round draft pick (by Boston) deserves at least a platoon role with a career line against southpaws of .311/.382/.484. Denorfia’s career has been derailed by injuries. He’s a grinder-type, though, that doesn’t really help out Fantasy managers very much even when he plays everyday because he projects to hit about 10 home runs, steal 10-15 bases and hit about .270.

Former first round pick Travis Buck could not follow up his breakout 2007 season (.288/.377/.474 in 82 games) because of injuries and general ineffectiveness (.226/.291/.432). If he’s healthy in 2009 and gets some playing time, Buck’s power potential could be of value for the A’s, and Fantasy teams. He is the most deserving of a regular role among the non-guaranteed starters.

Aaron Cunningham made his Major League debut in 2009 after being part of the reward for trading Dan Haren to Arizona last year. Scouts are split on Cunningham’s offensive potential and he could end up having a similar offensive output to Denorfia, by being able to do a little bit of everything but nothing quite often enough to become a Fantasy darling. On the other hand, if everything clicks he has an outside shot of being a 20-20 player.

Players with limited upside who threaten to steal playing time from more productive players include Rajai Davis and Rule 5 draft pick Ben Copeland. Davis does not really belong in the American League as his value lies in pinch running and acting as a defensive replacement late in games. Copeland, selected out of San Francisco, has some intriguing minor league numbers but he projects as a fourth outfielder who can run a little and isn’t afraid to take a walk. But his ceiling is tempered by his lack of power and questionable ability to hit for average.

It will be interesting to see how playing time is handed out in Oakland’s outfield in 2009 with 11 outfielders on the club’s 40-man roster, not including youngster Eric Patterson who split time between second base and the outfield in 2008.

Continuing our series examining some of the most highly skilled and promising youngsters in the minors, we’re going to shine the spotlight on the AA Southern League today. The Southern League featured a very deep pool of players for this list. Among those who tore the cover off of the ball but didn’t quite make the cut: “catcher” Angel Salome of the Brewers, first baseman Gaby Sanchez and second baseman Christopher Coghlan (Marlins), catcher Adam Moore and center fielders Michael Saunders and Gregory Halman (Mariners) and shortstop Ivan DeJesus Jr (Dodgers).

If you need a refresher on the methods used for this list or you haven’t had the chance to check out the overviews of the other leagues, here they are:

Florida State League
Carolina League
California League
Texas League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Southern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.02), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (0.98)

1. Cameron Maybin, Marlins: .381 wOBA (.277/.375/.456)
Age: 21
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Carolina): Runs (1.01), Hits (1.00), Doubles (1.13), Home Runs (0.95)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .283/.380/.467
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .232/.331/.362
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 3rd overall (1st hitter)

Peter Bendix wrote about Maybin a few months back, and much of what he writes pertaining to 2009 is important to remember: Maybin’s “The Natural”-esque performance in 36 PA at the end of last season was just that: a 36 PA sample. He’s an outstanding prospect, but it wouldn’t be advisable to expect instant success based on a few dozen trips to the plate. While Florida’s major prize in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis swap could use some more development time (he struck out nearly 32% of the time in AA), he does have quite a bit going for him. Maybin has a sound approach at the plate that allowed him to draw walks at a 13.3% pace, and he coupled that patience with solid power (.179 ISO) and fairly efficient base thievery (21 SB in 28 attempts). To boot, the 6-4, 205 pounder is a plus defender in center field.

The Asheville, North Carolina native may well have tremendous long-term value to the ‘Fins as a Mike Cameron-type player. Keep an eye on his whiff rate, however: strikeouts certainly do not preclude a player from becoming quite successful, but in the short run that elevated K rate suggests that Maybin would be best served honing his game at Florida’s new AAA affiliate in New Orleans.

2. Matt LaPorta, Indians: .429 wOBA (.288/.402/.576)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/1B?
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .291/.404/.573
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .236/.347/.437
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 4th overall (2nd hitter)

Cleveland’s shiny new toy acquired in the CC Sabathia
swap, LaPorta possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to become one of the most prolific hitters in the National League. The University of Florida alum entered his junior season as one of the most highly regarded prospects in the college game, but an injury caused his performance to drop, and his name wasn’t called until the 14th round of the 2006 amateur draft by the Boston Red Sox. LaPorta declined to sign, returned to Florida for his senior year and proceeded to rake. The following year, the Brewers came calling much earlier, selecting the 6-1, 220 pounder with the 7th overall pick in the draft.

At the time, LaPorta was viewed as something of an overdraft, and others questioned why the Brew Crew would take a defensively-challenged player like LaPorta when the club already had Prince Fielder in the fold. LaPorta is a terrific example of why major league organizations just plain don’t draft based on the composition of the major league roster. Milwaukee took the player whom they felt had the best chance of becoming an impact player in the big leagues, regardless of position or fit. And for that, they were rewarded with the necessary munitions to acquire a hired gun the caliber of Sabathia for the stretch run last season.

While LaPorta struggled a bit in a very small 60 PA sample after Cleveland acquired him, he put together a tremendous season for Milwaukee’s AA Huntsville affiliate. He’s no great shakes in the outfield (no surprise for a converted first baseman), but a guy who posts a .402 OBP and a .288 ISO can play anywhere. Check out LaPorta’s major league equivalent line: it suggests that he’s not very far away from contributing in Cleveland.

3. Jordan Schafer, Braves: .386 wOBA (.269/.378/.471)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Mississippi): Runs (0.97), Hits (1.00), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (0.83)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .272/.380/.483
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .221/.331/.372
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 13th overall (7th hitter)

Schafer’s 2008 season got off to an inauspicious start as he drew a 50-game suspension for alleged use of Human Growth Hormone, but the rangy center fielder impressed once he did take the field. Schafer, who posted a .307 wOBA and a 6.8 BB% in 2006, continued his offensive improvement, working a walk 14.2% of the time while smacking 10 HR with a .202 ISO in a park that suppresses power. On the negative side, Schafer’s K rate jumped to 29.6%, and he managed a feeble .196/.306/.299 line against fellow southpaws in 107 AB. The lackluster performance against lefties was a continuation of a career-long trend: Schafer has batted .281/.349/.487 against righties, but just .236/.310/.331 versus same-side pitching.

4. Alcides Escobar, Brewers: .369 wOBA (.328/.363/.434)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .336/.370/.440
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .281/.318/.361
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 5th overall (3rd hitter)

Escobar has long been known as a premium defensive shortstop, but he showed some signs of life at the dish in 2008 as well. Sure, his year was certainly batting average-fueled, but the fleet-of-foot Venezuelan has the sort of speed (34 SB, 8 CS) that allows one to project a higher BABIP- he’s more likely to beat out some of those grounders than a plodding type. He’ll never be confused with a great hitter, but Alcides’ combination of contact, speed and excellent defense should be enough to make him a pretty valuable player.

5. Mathew Gamel, Brewers: .409 wOBA (.329/.395/.537)
Age: 22
Position: “3B” (corner outfield?)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .333/.399/.537
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .275/.345/.424
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 7th overall (4th hitter)

At first glance, Gamel and the Brewers appear to be a perfect match. After all, what could the righty-leaning Brewers use more than a lefty-batting third baseman? Bill Hall has followed up a very nice 2006 season with an adequate 2007 (.317 wOBA) and a putrid 2008 (.297 wOBA). Gamel to the rescue, right?

While the Chipola Junior College product displayed a good deal of pop (though his overall line was aided by a .392 BABIP), Gamel very likely lacks the defensive chops to remain at the hot corner. In fact, some scouting reports peg him as downright Braun-y at third. While errors are a poor barometer of defensive skill, Gamel’s totals are pretty astounding. At High-A Brevard County in 2007, Gamel committed 53 errors in just 113 games. In 2008, he “improved” to 30 miscues in 126 games. Gamel probably isn’t all that far away from contributing offensively, but in all likelihood he will have to find a new position, lest the constant “E-5” ‘s on the scoreboard give Milwaukee fans “Hebrew Hammer” flashbacks.