It may not be as glamorous or as lucrative as being a starting pitcher in the Majors, but taking a stroll to the bullpen can save your career… just ask Joel Hanrahan and Steven Shell, both of whom pitch for the Washington Nationals.

Hanrahan, 27, was a second round draft pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2000 after a distinguished high school pitching career. The right-hander looked primed for an excellent Major League career after a solid 2003 season in Double-A, but that was not to be – for a few years, anyway.

Hanrahan became far more hittable at Triple-A in 2004 (9.7 H/9) and his control regressed (3.6 BB/9 in 2003 to 5.7 BB/9 in 2004). During the next two seasons, he cut back on the hits allowed, but his control continued to be an issue.

After seven seasons in the LA organization, Hanrahan signed with Washington as a minor league free agent prior to the 2007 season. He remained in the starting rotation for Triple-A Columbus and pitched well for the first half of the season, earning a promotion to the Majors for the first time. In 12 appearances for the Nationals, Hanrahan posted a 6.08 FIP and allowed 59 hits in 51 innings. He also posted rates of 6.71 BB/9 and 7.59 K/9. Obviously that walk rate won’t get it done at the Major League level.

Hanrahan showed enough potential to earn another shot at a big league gig – but this time as a reliever. He shifted to the bullpen full-time in 2008 and his career was resurrected. In 69 games, Hanrahan allowed 73 hits in 84.1 innings of work. He posted significantly-improved rates of 4.48 BB/9 and 9.92 K/9. His groundball rate jumped from 30.6 percent to 42.6 percent.

One of the biggest reasons for Hanrahan’s success – at least on the surface – was a significant improvement in his “stuff.” The fastball jumped from an average of 91.7 mph in 2007 to 95.2 mph in 2008, which is a huge increase for any pitcher. Hanrahan’s slider went from 82.4 mph to 85.3 mph. The move also allowed him to focus on those two pitches and his change-up usage dropped from 11.5 percent to 1.9 percent.

Shell was selected out of high school in the third round of the 2001 draft by the Los Angeles Angels. Like Hanrahan, Shell began his pro career as a highly-regarded starting pitcher. In 2004, in High-A ball, the right-hander fanned 190 batters in 165.1 innings and allowed just 151 hits while playing his home games in a hitter’s park.

During the next two seasons, in Double-A and Triple-A, he became much more hittable and posted hit rates of 9.9 H/9 in 2005 and 11.7 H/9 in 2006. Unlike Harahan, though, Shell’s control remained very good, including a rate of 2.3 BB/9 in 2006 at Triple-A.

The Angels moved Shell to the bullpen in 2007 – although he also made seven starts at Triple-A – with mixed results. He posted a 5.39 FIP and allowed 83 hits in 70.1 innings of work. After the season he was allowed to leave the organization as a minor league free agent. Shell, now 25, signed with Washington.

He began 2008 in the Triple-A bullpen. The right-hander posted a 3.34 FIP and posted rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 8.33 K/9, earning himself a promotion to the Major Leagues for the very first time. Shell allowed just 34 hits in 50 innings for the Nationals, and he posted rates of 3.60 BB/9 and 7.38 K/9. His ERA was 2.16, but his FIP was 4.11.

While Hanrahan has better pure stuff than Shell, the latter gets by with better command and control, as well as a good mix of pitches. His repertoire includes an 89 mph fastball, a curveball (which he uses almost 28% of the time), a slider and a change-up.

The closer gig in Washington is wide open for 2009, although Hanrahan may have the inside track after saving nine games in 2008. Shell’s diverse repertoire invokes similarities to Angels’ super-set-up man Scot Shields (although he throws about 3 mph faster on average than Shell). With questionable starting pitching and a less-than-threatening offence, the Nationals may end up winning a lot of close games (not to say they’ll win a lot of games – just that the games they win will not be blowouts), which could create quite a few save opportunities.

The 2008 Seattle Mariners were, in many ways, difficult to watch. With a payroll in excess of $100 million, the M’s managed to lose 101 ballgames. Richie Sexson and Jose Vidro were compensated handsomely to do their best Mario Mendoza impressions, and shaky fielding behind some, ahem, questionable free agent starters only made matters worse. The M’s checked in at -32.8 UZR in ’08, ranking 24th in the majors. Combine mediocre hitting, pitching and fielding, and you have a high-priced disaster.

However, those grim days may very well be in the rear view mirror. The M’s unceremoniously dumped Bill Bavasi and company, bringing in well-regarded talent procurer Jack Zduriencik, who helped draft and develop Milwaukee’s extensive list of gifted youngsters. Jack Z has wasted little time altering his roster, signing a cheap and potentially useful first base platoon (Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton) and then pulling off a mind-bending 12-player trade that netted him seven players. Among those seven are Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez, two of the rangiest outfielders in the game today.

The current Mariner’s depth chart features Chavez in left field, Gutierrez in center and Ichiro Suzuki in right. Suffice it to say, that group would go a long way toward improving Seattle’s lackluster defensive showing. Let’s see how the outfield fared in ’08 using UZR/150 (the number of runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games) and John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system:

2008

Raul Ibanez (LF): -11 UZR/150, -18 Plus/Minus
Ichiro Suzuki (CF): 3.3 UZR/150, -9 Plus/Minus
Suzuki (RF): -0.2 UZR/150, +12 Plus/Minus
Wladimir Balentien (CF): -1.7 UZR/150, -2 Plus/Minus
Balentien (RF): -17.4 UZR, -3 Plus/Minus

I just listed the players seeing the most time in the outfield. As a team , The M’s outfield compiled:

LF: -14.9 UZR (-14.9 runs), -21 +/- (-16.8 runs)
CF: -3.4 UZR (-3.4 runs), -12 +/- (-9.6 runs)
RF: -7.2 UZR (-7.2 runs), +14 +/- (+11.2 runs)

As a whole, the M’s outfield was -25.5 runs below average by UZR and -15.2 runs by the Plus/Minus system (the big difference in RF is due to Dewan’s system liking Ichiro’s work there and UZR rating it as slightly below average).

Now, take a gander at the new-look Seattle D. For the sake of making this comparison easier, let’s assume that:
1. Chavez, Gutierrez and Suzuki all make 150 starts and play 1350 innings apiece.
2. The fielding metrics compiled by Gutierrez are docked 15% (it’s far from perfect, but it’s an attempt to account for the added difficulty of playing center), and Chavez and Suzuki play to the levels that they have shown in the corner spots during their respective careers. For Chavez, I added his equally stellar work in RF to his projection to make the sample size larger (the majority of his career has been spent in center).

LF Chavez: 20.3 UZR/150
CF Gutierrez: 18.3 UZR/150
RF Suzuki: 7.3 UZR/150

If this trio plays 150 games, they project to be nearly 46 runs above average with the leather. Compare that with the embarrassing work done by last year’s Ibanez-fueled, molasses-covered group: if the M’s get league-average defense from their extra outfielders (filling out the additional 12 game gap), that’s a swing of over 70 runs in outfield defense, or seven wins (!)

Keep Seattle’s insanely rangy outfield in mind on draft day, particularly when it comes to flyball-centric hurler Brandon Morrow (career 34.2 GB%). Great defense can make pitchers look a whole lot better, and the M’s new outfield projects to have a Tampa Bay-type turnaround in quality with three legitimate center fielders covering the gaps.

In terms of flashy major league debuts, no one can top Edwin Jackson. On his 20th birthday, the fireballing Dodgers rookie defeated Randy Johnson, punching out four batters in six scoreless innings. A 6th round pick in the 2001 draft, Jackson came equipped with an ideal pitcher’s frame (6-3, 190) and a fastball that crept up near triple digits at times. Considered one of the brightest prospects in a fertile Dodgers farm system, Jackson figured to play a prominent role in LA’s future.

That plan never came to fruition, however, as the German-born right-hander spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons sipping sour cups of coffee with the Dodgers (62 H, 42 R in 53.1 IP) and getting clobbered at hitter-friendly AAA Las Vegas (126 R in 145.1 IP). He found some measure of success upon a demotion to the AA Southern League in ’05 (6.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9), but on the whole those two seasons were brutal. Los Angeles eventually grew tired of Jackson’s lack of progress and jettisoned him (along with lefty Chuck Tiffany) to Tampa Bay for Danys Baez and Lance Carter prior to the 2006 season.

Jackson more or less trudged along the same disappointing career path in 2006 (5.45 ERA) and 2007 (5.76) as well, before posting a mark below the league average for the first time in his career this past season. Still just 25 and coming off a campaign in which he shaved his ERA down to 4.42, Jackson only figures to get better, right?

Well, the Tigers certainly think so. The club shipped rangy, cost-controlled outfielder Matthew Joyce to the Rays to acquire Jackson’s services a few days ago in what Dave Cameron called a “ridiculously bad trade.” While Detroit’s starting staff ranked just 21st in WPA/LI and could use some external help, there just isn’t much evidence to suggest that their newest arm actually made significant progress in 2008.

In 2007, Jackson posted a 4.90 FIP. In 2008, despite the huge difference in ERA, that FIP figure remained static (4.88 FIP). While he knocked off over a walk per nine innings from his line (from 4.92 BB/9 in ’07 to 3.78 BB/9 in ’08), his strikeout rate dipped considerably, down from 7.16 per nine in 2007 to just 5.3 in 2008.

It wasn’t really Jackson that improved, but rather the defense around him. The dramatic shift in the quality of Tampa’s D has been well chronicled. After posting a gruesome -54.2 UZR in 2007, the Rays skyrocketed to +70.6 in ’08 (for those of you scoring at home, that’s about a twelve-and-a-half win swing). Jackson’s BABIP was .351 in 2007, but with the best defensive squad in the majors flanking him in 2008, that number dropped to .301. He also benefitted from stranding 76.1% of runners on base, well above his 69.7% career average.

Jackson is a great example of velocity not being everything for a pitcher. Despite routinely popping the catcher’s mitt at 94 MPH, Jackson’s swinging strike percentage was just 7.7% in 2008, slightly below the 7.8% average for starters. For comparison, former teammate Andy Sonnanstine (he of 87 MPH heat and four offspeed pitches) generated swinging strikes at a 7.3% clip and bested Jackson with 5.77 K/9. So, despite Jackson’s “stuff” advantage, he missed about the same number of bats as Sonny while walking over two times as many hitters (which, I guess, gives you an idea of why Andy is sticking around and Jackson is not).

While Jackson is still relatively young and it’s conceivable that he could improve, he’s no more than an adequate fifth starter at this point in time. Don’t be fooled by the superficial gains in his 2008 numbers: the only thing that changed about Jackson this past year was the quality of the defenders around him.

Any way that you want to slice and dice the numbers, the Rangers’ starting pitching staff was a Texas-sized embarrassment in 2008. The club bashed its way to a major league-best .278 Equivalent Average, scoring a whopping 902 runs along the way. Unfortunately, as good as the offense was, the team’s run prevention was poor enough to nullify all of those crooked numbers posted by Hamilton, Kinsler et al.

Name a Texas pitcher that took the hill, and odds are that his ERA resembled something that you’d see on the side of a Boeing jet. As a team, the Rangers’ starters authored an abhorrent 5.51 ERA, tying the Baltimore Orioles for the highest mark in the bigs (if Texas and Baltimore switched staffs, would anyone notice?) Even using WPA/LI to adjust for the hitter-happy tendencies of Arlington, the Rangers ranked just 25th in the bigs. In a clear sign of the Apocalypse, Sidney Ponson (released in June) “led” the staff in WPA/LI at 0.23. When Sir Sidney leads your staff in anything but surliness, you have a problem.

So, the vast majority of Texas’ starters were crappy, regardless of dimensions of their home ballpark. That’s not breaking news. However, the Rangers’ fielders did those starters no favors in 2008. While Texas featured some heavy hitters, several prominent players were lethargic with the leather.

David Appelman recently added yet another great feature to this site: Ultimate Zone Rating. Using a fielding model developed by Mitchel Lichtman, UZR allows us to calculate how many runs above or below average a fielder is per 150 games played (for further details and discussion, look here). Perusing the Texas team page, it becomes apparent that while the Rangers’ offense is strong up the middle, some of those runs are punted back on defense (and, in Young’s case, on offense as well):

CF Hamilton: -12.6 UZR/150
2B Kinsler: -4.4 UZR/150
SS Young: -3.7 UZR/150

Ramon Vazquez’s work at third base was enough to make Brooks Robinson weep (-19.2 UZR/150), but the free agent is unlikely to return to Texas. UZR isn’t the only fielding system that disapproves of this troika either, as John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system had Kinsler (-15 plays) Hamilton (-13) and Young (-7) all in the red as well. That combined -35 showing translates to about 28 runs below average. Another slugger, Chris Davis, will likely see action at the hot corner next season. It’s too small of a sample to mean much, but the 6-4, 235 pounder was -3 plays in 404 innings at first base, -9 in 276 innings at third and comes with spotty defensive scouting reports.

You might be asking yourself, why does this matter? Texas’ starters are hazardous to being with, so who cares if the defense makes things worse? While it’s true that many of the club’s starters have been downright repugnant over the past few seasons, the Rangers do have a considerable wave of young arms emerging. Eric Hurley, Tommy Hunter and Matt Harrison have already made their debuts. Higher-tier hurlers like Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz reached AA in ’08, and are blazing a trail to the majors that could place them in Arlington sometime during the 2009 season.

While these prospects should still be kept on the radar screen, it is important to keep in mind the context in which they will be placed: pitching in a bandbox (Rangers Ballpark in Arlington increased run production by seven percent from 2006-2008) in front of iron-gloved defenders.

Dave covered the signing of CC Sabathia on the front page, but what about CC’s fantasy value?

Wins: Sabathia went 6-8 with the Indians and 11-2 after the trade to Milwaukee. Sabathia’s early season woes have something to do with the mediocre Indians record (remember how he allowed 27 earned runs in his first 18 innings? Neither do most people) Sabathia did have a few tough losses though, two with Cleveland in which he allowed two runs or less, and one with Milwaukee. The 2008 Yankees offense scored less runs than the Indians, despite seemingly have more offensive talent, they did outscore the Brewers. In 2009, without Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu, but with Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano regressing towards being good again, and a few probable free agent additions, the offense should maintain decent run support for Sabathia.

ERA: Don’t go out of the way to get your hands on Sabathia expecting a 2.70 ERA again. It’s rough to estimate, but Marcels has him at 3.22. That’s a pretty reliable projection, and we should expect a slight bump in moving back to the American League.

Innings: Same story as ERA, it’s likely that 2008 was the absolute peak for Sabathia’s workload unless the Yankees get a little too frivolous with their new toy. He’s still CC Sabathia, and he’s still going to get a few complete games, but again, don’t expect a complete game one-third of the time.

Strikeouts and Walks: Sabathia struck out a career high per nine. Sabathia’s strikeout percentage of total batters faced increased a smidge, from 24.3% with Cleveland to 24.8% with Milwaukee. It’s possible for a bit of regression here, Sabathia’s been up trending for three straight seasons. Here’s a graphical look at Sabathia’s strikeout rates:

WHIP: With walk rates covered, let’s look at hit rates. Sabathia’s had a pretty average BABIP the past few seasons. As a team, Yankees pitchers had a collective .323 BABIP against last season good for third highest in the league last season. The Brewers and Indians were quite a bit better, which is to be expected, given both of those teams likely have better defense, suggesting it’s probable to see Sabathia’s batting average against raise.

Conclusion: It’s possible that Sabathia becomes less valuable despite potentially earning more wins. Expect his ERA and WHIP to increase while his strikeout rate and innings load dip.

Although their repertoires and approaches vary, Canadian hurlers Shawn Hill and Rich Harden share a common theme: their susceptibility to injury. Both players are also 27 years of age and both were selected in the 2000 draft – Hill in the sixth round and Harden in the 17th round.

Hill has never pitched more than 16 Major League games in one season thanks to his ongoing injury woes, which have included Tommy John surgery. In 206.1 career innings, the right-hander has a 4.93 ERA and has allowed 234 hits. In 2008, Hill never looked completely healthy for the Washington Nationals and he allowed 88 hits in 63.1 innings. He posted rates of 3.27 BB/9 and 5.54 K/9. Hill does a respectable job of keeping batted balls on the ground and he posted a HR/9 rate of 0.71 last season.

Hill averages right around 90 mph with his fastball and he has been fairly consistent with that pitch over the past three seasons. His curveball was thrown about three miles per hour harder in 2008 than in the previous two seasons, although his usage dropped about four percent – in part due to the emergence of a slider, which he used 5.5 percent of the time. Hill also uses a change-up just under seven percent of the time.

Harden, now with the Chicago Cubs, appeared in just 16 games between 2006 and 2007 thanks to numerous injuries to his arm and shoulder. When healthy, though, he has been dominating. He has a 3.23 career ERA in 612.2 innings. Harden, 27, has also allowed just 7.1 hits per nine innings during that span of time. Last season, he made 25 starts between Oakland and Chicago, which was his highest number of appearances at the Major League level since 2004.

Combined, Harden pitched 148 innings and allowed just 96 hits. He posted rates of 3.71 BB/9 and 11.01 K/9. The flyball pitcher did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park with a HR/9 rate of 0.67. Harden’s average fastball has lost about two miles per hour from where it sat in 2005. Perhaps in an effort to protect his arm, Harden has changed his repertoire and approach. He has all but eliminated his splitter in favor of his change-up, which he threw almost 30 percent of the time in 2008, compared to nine percent in 2005. Harden has also cut back on using his slider – which has regressed from a usage of 10.7 percent in 2005 to just under three percent in 2008.

Both players enter 2009 with question marks. Harden pitched the second highest number of Major League innings in his career, but he was absolutely dominating in both the American and National Leagues. He has the potential to be a top-tiered starter, but with a history of shoulder problems – including the rotator cuff – caution must be used when acquired him in a Fantasy draft. In other words, don’t overpay or spend too early of a pick on the hurler. Expect to get 120-140 above-average innings out of him, and be thankful for anything beyond that.

Hill, who missed significant time in 2008 with forearm tightness, had bone spurs removed from his elbow in September and is expected to be “healthy” when spring training rolls around. If the medical reports are indeed good as the regular season begins, he is a name you should remember in NL-only Fantasy Baseball Leagues. Hill has the potential to provide a number of quality starts, but his ceiling is significantly below that of Harden.

That’s what Moneyball said, but in 2008 that doesn’t appear to be reality. While doing some precursory research on Rajai Davis I stumbled upon his 35 stolen base attempts. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but Davis reached base only 61 times in 2008. That works out to Rajai attempting a steal 57% of his time on base. That doesn’t tell us how many times Davis was used as a pinch runner nor how many of those steals were with Oakland, but a quick glance at his gamelogs does.

31 of his attempts came with the A’s and only 10 attempts as a pinch runner. I took away those 10 pinch running attempts, and yet Davis still attempted a steal 41% of the time he got himself on base. That’s a lot, in fact, that’s the second highest percentage in baseball for those in the top 100 of stolen bases. Fluke, right?

Well, not too far below Davis name sat Eric Patterson, who attempted steals in 26% of his times on base. Eight of Patterson’s 11 steal attempts came with the Athletics, and three as a pinch runner. Impressively Patterson wasn’t caught in his eight Oakland tries. Even a little further down the list was Matt Holliday (12%), putting three somewhat recent Athletics acquisitions in the top 60.

After looking merely at team attempts, the legendary conservative Athletics ranked 19th in stolen base attempts, higher than “more athletic” (no pun intended) teams like Cleveland, Texas, Florida, and even Arizona. It’s worth noting the Athletics boasted the second best success rate just behind the Philadelphia Phillies. Not only did they run about as much an average team, but they chose their spots to maximize success.

Come draft day, keep this in mind. Just because Holliday is an Athletic, doesn’t mean his baserunning value is going to waste.

When Kosuke Fukudome came stateside last offseason, expectations were fairly high. After all, the longtime Chunichi Dragons stud compiled a .305/.397/.543 career line in Japan, winning the league’s Central League MVP as well as taking home gold in the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006. Intrigued by his broad base of skills, the Chicago Cubs inked Fukudome to a four-year, $48 million deal.

While Fukudome’s power numbers figured to take a hit upon transitioning to Major League Baseball, his translated numbers still figured to be pretty lofty. Baseball Prospectus 2008 called the 31 year-old “someone who can get on base at a .390 or .400 clip while contributing in all facets of the game.” PECOTA called for a .289/.401/.504 line, and Fukudome’s most comparable players were promising: J.D. Drew, Jim Edmonds and Fred Lynn ranked prominently on the list.

Fukudomania swept the Windy City last spring, as the lefty batter got off to a searing start. He batted .327/.436/.480 in March and April, drawing a Bondsian 19 walks in 117 PA. May was also productive, if less powerful, as he hit .293/.388/.404 with 16 free passes in the same number of plate appearances. As the Cubs entered summer, Fukudome continued to contribute by posting a .264/.387/.402 line in June.

It was at that point, however, that the wheels fell off. July was a tough month (.236/.306/.382), but we hadn’t seen anything yet: August brought forth a sickly .193/.293/.253 showing that would make Tony Pena Jr. blush, and Fukudome’s descent continued into September and early October (.178/.288/.289).

So, what the heck caused Fukudome to transform him from an on-base fiend to an offensive drag who ended up plastered to the Cubs bench down the stretch? To try and answer that question, I examined Fukudome’s pitch data over the course of the season. I figured that as opposing pitchers became more familiar with Fukudome, they might have discovered a weakness in his game that would present itself in an increase (or decrease) in certain pitches thrown.

As it turns out, essentially nothing changed in terms of pitch selection as the 6-0, 187 pounder shifted from Fukudomania to Fukufourthoutfielder. And as I dug deeper into his tale of two seasons, it became apparent that lady luck had an effect on the proceedings. Here’s a look at some of Fukudome’s key indicators over his red-hot start and ice-cold finish:

March through June

340 PA 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP

July through October

250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP

Sure, there are some differences between the two stretches, but nothing that comes close to explaining the gargantuan shift in performance. Rather, it seems that Fukudome had some pretty awful luck on balls in play from July onward. With each passing month, fewer and fewer ducksnorts fell in for hits:

Fukudome’s BABIP by month:

April/March: .392
May: .325
June: .317
July: .306
August: .217
September/Oct.: .194

While Lou Pinella seemed to lose confidence in his new right fielder as the season progressed, it doesn’t appear as though Fukudome’s true talent level changed all that much. In all probability, Fukudome is neither the star of April nor the scrub of September.

On the whole, Fukudome batted .257/.359/.379 with a refined approach at the plate (13.9 BB%, 20 O-Swing%). His strikeout rate was a little high (20.8%) and his .122 ISO was very tame for a corner outfielder. Luckily for Fukudome and the Cubs, his stellar defensive work (13.4 UZR per 150 games in RF) might mean that he could shift to center, putting less of an onus on his modest pop.

Of course, that won’t change Fukudome’s value in the vast majority of leagues, but he is still someone to consider taking a flyer on. Most people will focus on his finish, where he endured a see-a-black-cat, walk-under-a-dozen-ladders unlucky BABIP stretch, but Fukudome could be a good source of OBP in the later rounds.

The Dodgers are coming off a season in which they won their division and finished second in the National League. Yet, it’s possible they could lose two-fifths of their rotation, their starting left fielder, and non-tender their closer. Whether the Dodgers decide to invest money towards CC Sabathia, Manny Ramirez, or whomever else is up to be decided, but one thing that should be a given is the placement of James McDonald in the starting rotation.

Despite making a cameo in the Dodgers playoff run late last season, McDonald is still a relative unknown. A low-90’s fastball and mid-70’s breaking stuff doesn’t do much for the imagination, but McDonald has shown the ability to excel without any pitch that “grades out” and commands a strong minor league track record. Drafted as a pitcher, McDonald spent 2003 in rookie ball, throwing 49 innings and showing little concern for the opposing lineup’s collective confidence levels. In 2004, the Dodgers would shift McDonald to the outfield and give him a bat. He’d struggle in 125 at-bats, recording only three extra base hits, and having a 12:44 walk-to-strikeout ratio. That would’ve been excellent, if only he were still pitching.

Los Angeles would correct their error in 2006, and McDonald would return to dominating in 2007; breezing through High-A and Double-A with K/BB ratios over four and FIPs of 2.88 and 3.03. McDonald spent most of 2008 in Double-A, encountering a few hiccups; the most prevalent being a decreased strikeout ratio and increased walk ratio. A 22 innings stint in Las Vegas capped off McDonald’s minor league season, as he soon joined the major league club.

Since 2007, McDonald faced 1,047 batters in the minors. Of those, 281 struck out, or 27%. That’s pretty impressive for someone without “plus stuff”. The one downfall for McDonald could be his fly ball tendencies leading to potentially high homerun totals. McDonald didn’t show too many concerns about this in the minors, with HR/9 ratios usually clocking in just under one per, and pitching within the homerun suppressant Dodger Stadium should help, but the out-via-air patterns are worth noting.

Marcels isn’t much help with McDonald’s non-existent major league profile, but it’s easy to see McDonald lapping Brad Penny’s 2008, and being a bit of a sleeper in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP categories.

When Carlos Zambrano broke into the major leagues in 2001, he was the epitome of power pitching. The burly 6-5, 255 pounder pumped mid-90’s gas, and though he didn’t always know where it was headed, he racked up big strikeout totals. Zambrano punched out over 7 batters per nine innings between 2002 and 2003, before graduating into 8 K/9 territory. He whiffed 8.07 per nine in 2004 and 8.14/9 in 2006, before culminating at 8.83 K/9 in 2006.

However, as Big Z was racking up the K’s, his control was suffering. After walking about three-and-a-half batters per nine innings in ’04 and ’05, his BB/9 rocketed to 4.84 in 2006. Despite the higher strikeout rates, Zambrano’s controllable skills were headed in the wrong direction:

Zambrano’s Fielding Independent ERA’s, 2003-2006:

2003: 3.47
2004: 3.57
2005: 3.70
2006: 4.14

In 2007, Zambrano’s control took a (relative) step in the right direction, as he cut his walk rate to 4.20 batters per nine innings. However, that improvement seemed to come with a cost, as Zambrano’s K rate fell to 7.36/9. That shift produced further slippage in his FIP, as Big Z posted a career-high 4.58 mark.

Zambrano’s halted his rapidly ascending FIP in 2008, posting a 4.23 figure. He showed further improvement with the free passes (his 3.43 BB/9 was the lowest mark of his career), but Zambrano’s refined control came at the further expense of his strikeout rate. Big Z struck out a downright pedestrian 6.2 batters per nine innings, a far cry from his work just a few seasons prior.

While some might still categorize Zambrano as a power arm, he doesn’t really seem to fit the description anymore. Big Z once lit up the radar guns, but his fastball velocity has dipped in each of the past four seasons:

Zambrano’s fastball velocity, 2005-2008:

2005: 92.8 MPH
2006: 92.2 MPH
2007: 91.6 MPH
2008: 91.3 MPH

The 2008 version of Zambrano was at least more economical with his pitches. He posted his lowest pitches per plate appearance (3.80) and pitches/IP (16.0) since 2003. Big Z has also become more adept at getting batters to chase his offerings outside of the strike zone. His O-Swing% during his high-K 2006 season was 19.8%, but that figure climbed to 25.3% in 2007 and 25.7% this past season. With more pitches being thrown around the strike zone, batters seem less apt to lay off in hopes of coaxing a walk.

The combination of decreased velocity, K’s and walks leads one to believe that Zambrano is making an effort to show better control and put the ball around the plate more often. However, that improved command has significantly cut into his number of swings and misses generated. Once one of the more difficult starting pitchers to make contact with, Zambrano now ranks in the middle of the pack:

Zambrano’s Contact%, 2005-2008

2005: 77.9%
2006: 78.1%
2007: 78.8%
2008: 82.5%

It’s difficult to be very enthusiastic about the new, lower-octane Zambrano. Sure, his control is better. But he’s not going to be confused with Curt Schilling or Mike Mussina any time soon, and his whiff rate has dipped to the point where he’s actually below the NL league average of 6.99 in that department.

A pitcher can certainly be successful with a moderate K rate and worm-burning skills, but typically that sort of profile also requires the ability to paint the corners. Zambrano has improved in that regard, but his gains in the walk department still leave his control rating as just ordinary. When you combine a league-average K rate with a league-average walk rate, you get…a league average pitcher.

Still just 27, Zambrano has already accumulated nearly 1,400 innings on his right arm. That’s a Herculean workload, one that appears to be taken some bite off of his pitches. Courtesy of Baseball-Reference, we find that Zambrano’s most comparable player through age 27 is Ramon Martinez.

Like Zambrano, Martinez routinely crossed the 200-inning mark in his early 20’s, compiling plenty of strikeouts and walks along the way. However, such a massive workload at such a young age cut Martinez’s career short. Martinez’s major league career was effectively over by the age of 30 when his shoulder gave out, though he trudged on a little longer before calling it quits at 33. Perhaps Big Z finds his fastball zip this offseason, but all signs point to his days as a certifiable ace being over. As Martinez can attest, few youthful pitchers overcome such arduous innings totals to enjoy a lengthy career.