From the moment that Ian Snell (then named Ian Oquendo) was selected as a 26th-round afterthought in the 2000 amateur draft, he has had to fight an uphill battle to prove himself a capable major league starter. The Delaware native always possessed a live arm, but his diminutive stature (5-11, 198) gave scouts pause, and led many to predict that he would reside in the bullpen long-term. As Baseball America’s 2004 prospect handbook summed it up, “with his slight stature and two above-average pitches, he could wind up as a closer in the big leagues.”

As he breezed through the Pittsburgh farm system, however, Snell’s performance as a starter was too good to ignore. With 8.6 K’s per nine innings and 2.3 BB/9, Snell established himself as one of the most promising arms in the organization at the same time that high-pedigreed hurlers such as Bobby Bradley, John Van Benschoten and Sean Burnett fell by the wayside.

After a fairly promising 2006 season (4.58 FIP, 2.28 K/BB), Snell appeared to break through in 2007. His strikeout rate fell somewhat (from 8.18 in ’06 to 7.66 in ’07), but he trimmed his walks from 3.58 per nine innings to 2.94. He also made better use of his full arsenal of pitches, as worked in an 84 MPH changeup 10.2% of the time to supplement his 92 MPH fastball (52.5%) and 84 MPH slider (37.3%). With his HR/FB rate regressing from an astronomical 14.9% to 9.6%, Snell’s HR/9 figure dropped from 1.4 in 2006 to 0.95 in 2007. His FIP came in at a tidy 4.01.

After crossing the 200-inning threshold in ’07 and seemingly solidifying himself as the club’s ace, Snell did not fare near as well in 2008, as his ERA ballooned from 3.76 to 5.42.

While there some concerns that we’ll get to later, let’s focus on the positives first. Snell’s ERA was cringe-worthy, but it certainly overstated the extent of his struggles. His K rate remained relatively stable (7.39) and his FIP was a little worse than league-average, at 4.57. As Peter chronicled earlier, Snell was one of many Pittsburgh hurlers who suffered in front of an iron-gloved Bucco defense (19th in UZR at -17.8, 28th in Defensive Efficiency). Snell’s .358 BABIP was the second-highest mark among all qualified starters- only Kevin Millwood (.366) fared worse on balls put in play.

So, Snell wasn’t near as bad as his ERA or won-loss record would have you believe. Still, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t some negatives to take out of his season. His walk rate jumped significantly, up to 4.87 per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Snell’s first-pitch strike percentage fell from 63.7% in 2007 to 56.5% in 2008; that put him in the same range as Livan Hernandez and Daniel Cabrera.

Generally speaking, a shoulder injury for a pitcher may materialize in decreased velocity, while an elbow malady is characterized by loss of control. Snell appears to fit that line of thought, as he hit the DL in late June with a strained right elbow. I’m not going to attempt to predict Snell’s health going forward, but it seems plausible that he could cut his free passes to a more tolerable level if the elbow is healed up.

Snell’s pitch selection also shifted in ’08, and not necessarily for the better . He increased his fastball usage nearly ten percent (from 52.5% to 62.2%), while still relying heavily on his slider (32.7%). Snell cut the use of his changeup in half, using the pitch only 5.1% of the time this past season.

One criticism that Snell faced as he climbed the ladder was his lack of a third offering. The 27 year-old uses his changeup reluctantly, instead preferring to focus on his fastball/slider mix against both lefties and righties. Without a pitch that reliably moves away from opposite-handed batters, Snell as had his share of problems with left-handed hitters. They hit him relatively hard in 2007 (.284/.353/.447), but 2008 was much worse: southpaws facing Snell transformed into Joe Mauer, scorching him to the tune of .314/.415/.498. Snell’s change doesn’t look like a bad pitch, dropping about four inches more in the zone than his fastball (the league average is about 2.9). Perhaps Snell doesn’t trust his changeup, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to mix a few more in there against the lefties.

Going forward, Snell will almost certainly post a much lower ERA in 2009. Even if he were to continue walking a bunch of batters, his peripherals suggest he would be a league-average starter. If his elbow is mended and his control improves, he could compile another FIP in the low fours. That’s not headline-grabbing, but it’s certainly useful. However, if Snell is going to take the next step, he’s going to have to find a way to keep those pesky southpaws at bay.

It seems like Lastings Milledge has been around forever, but in fact the Nationals outfielder is only 23 years old, and may be on the cusp of breaking out.

Milledge hit an underwhelming .268/.330/.402 in a 138 games this year, with 14 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts). He also struck out 18.4% of the time and walked only 6.8% of the time. However, Milledge appears to have improved during the season. On July 31, Milledge was hitting only .237/.300/.351 with 7 homers and 13 steals. However, from August 1 on, Milledge hit an impressive .318/.378/.485 with 7 homers and 11 steals in only 52 games.

Of course, it is certainly possible that Milledge’s impressive August and September can be attributed to a small sample size fluke. But it is also possible that Milledge has begun to refine his game. Many people forget about how young Lastings is – most 23 year olds are not playing every day in the majors. Milledge’s minor league numbers suggest that he could be successful in the majors, and that he could develop power to go along with his speed.

Next season, Milledge will once again be a starting outfielder for the Nationals. It will be interesting to see if he can build on his excellent finish to the 2008 campaign, but Milledge may be a guy worth taking a risk on for your fantasy team. The upside is enormous, as Lastings has the chance to post an excellent batting average, steal somewhere around 25-35 bases, and even hit 20+ homers. There is a lot of risk involved, as Milledge stunk for the majority of the 2008 season. However, few young players have the fantasy potential of Milledge, making that risk easier to stomach.

You shouldn’t be relying on Milledge for guaranteed production, but he’d make an excellent late-round flier thanks to his large amount of upside.

The Rays cashed in some of their starting pitching depth by trading Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for Matt Joyce. What can we expect from Joyce in 2009?

It looks as if Joyce will be the primary right fielder for the Rays in 2009. And if there’s one thing that Joyce has consistently shown throughout his career, it’s that he can rake against righties.

Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 in 277 plate appearances with the Tigers this year – including a .255/.333/.509 line against righties. His splits in the minors are even more dramatic: this season Joyce hit .270/.352/.550 in triple-A, but crushed righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610. These trends are visible throughout Joyce’s minor league career, except for his stint in double-A, where he hit lefties and righties approximately equally.

Joyce has shown the propensity to strike out quite often in his career, and looks like he may be a “Three True Outcome” player – although probably not to the same extent as someone like Adam Dunn. However, it’s unlikely that Joyce will hit for a particularly high batting average, even though his BABIP in the majors (.293) was lower than his BABIP in the minors from this year (.328) or last year (.319). Marcel projects his batting average to be .266, which seems reasonable, if a touch optimistic.

Joyce’s power, however, seems to be real. He hits a lot of fly balls – 47.5% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and appears to be strong enough to muscle a lot of them out of the park. In fact, 14.1% of Joyce’s fly balls left the park this year, and he hit 25 homers in only 442 at bats between triple-A and the majors.

The Rays are certainly aware of Joyce’s limitations against lefties, and are likely to pair him with another outfielder who can hit lefties better. Therefore, Joyce is unlikely to be an everyday player; however, that doesn’t mean he’s not valuable. This year he crushed 25 homers despite getting less than 500 at bats – there’s no reason why he can’t homer at that pace again next year. Joyce will be particularly valuable in leagues with daily updates, since you can bench him whenever the Rays face a lefty. However, Joyce will still be very valuable in weekly update leagues as well, since when he does face righties he’s likely to be very, very good.

Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.

Last season, John Maine started out well: through his first 18 innings, he posted a 3.99 ERA and 93/49 K/BB ratio in 103 innings. Not amazing, but certainly solid, and well within the realm of expectations for Maine.

But then things went south. In his last six starts, he had a 4.83 ERA and 29/18 K/BB ratio in 31 innings. But Maine had a legitimate excuse: he was diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff. The Mets placed him on the DL retroactive to July 29, and although he did return at the end of the season, his velocity was notably down.

In fact, Maine’s velocity was going down even before he was placed on the DL. In his start on July 5, Maine’s fastball averaged 93.58 MPH. It then averaged 91.97 MPH and 92.71 MPH in his next two starts. However, on July 23 his fastball averaged 91.83 MPH and on July 28, it averaged only 90.84 MPH. Maine clearly was pitching through problems – problems that affected his performance and his statistics.

Maine underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his shoulder after the season, and is expected to be fully healthy for spring training. If so, Maine may be underrated this year. Yes, everyone knows that he was hurt last year, but others in your league may not realize that he was pitching hurt for some of the season, making his overall numbers look worse than they otherwise would.

Marcel predicts Maine’s ERA to be 3.96, and this seems reasonable, although somewhat pessimistic. Maine is a fly ball pitcher who will allow his share of homers, but plays in a park that favors fly ball pitchers and has Carlos Beltran patrolling center field. He will get a solid amount of strikeouts (his career K rate is 7.71 per nine) and should get a decent amount of wins, thanks to an above-average offense and (supposedly) improved bullpen. Maine isn’t a fantasy ace, but he could be a solid – and undervalued – member of your pitching staff.

Chien-Ming Wang may not get many strikeouts, but could be a nice addition to your fantasy team.

Wang was limited to 95 innings last year thanks to an injury he sustained running the bases in 2008. The good news for the future is that Wang’s injury had nothing to do with pitching, making it less likely that Wang will experience injury issues in 2009. And, when healthy, Wang is an excellent pitcher.

Wang relies on a devastating 92 MPH sinker that allows him to induce ground balls on 60% of his balls in play in his career. Wang relies on his often-suspect infield defense (having Jeter and Cano fielding so many grounders can’t be good for your health, let alone your ERA), but keeps the ball in the ballpark: he’s allowed only 34 homers in 628 career innings.

Additionally, Wang has slowly increased the number of swinging strikes he’s induced. In his injury-shortened 2008 season, batters swung and missed at 7.2% of his pitches. In 2007 that number was 6.9%, and was 6.6% and 5.2% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. Wang’s strikeout rate has slowly increased as well: last year he struck out 5.12 batters per nine, after getting 4.70 Ks per nine in 2006 and less than 4 per nine in 2006 and 2005. This is not a high rate, but Wang induces so many grounders that he doesn’t need to strike many hitters out.

And although strikeouts are a category in fantasy, Wang still may not be appropriately valued in your fantasy league. Subjectively, it appears that Wang’s secondary pitches – especially his slider – have improved, and the numbers back this up, as Wang has consistently struck out more batters. If he pitches 200 innings with 5.5 strikeouts per nine next year, he’ll accumulate 122 strikeouts. Wang is likely to keep his ERA under four – perhaps even 3.50 or under – and should rack up the wins thanks to a solid (if somewhat overrated) offense. There’s a lot of fantasy value in a pitcher like that – especially a rather low-risk pitcher like Wang – even if he doesn’t strike out a batter every inning.

Wang is not a fantasy ace, but should an excellent member of your team, especially if you can draft him in the late middle rounds.

As an ardent Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I have to admit that discussing B.J. Upton is something of an exercise in masochism. A wonderfully talented player, Upton nonetheless is a constant, sharp, prodding reminder of years of aimless drafting by the Bucs, motivated by frugality more than future upside. Add in the fact that Bryan Bullington (the Pirates’ ill-fated, 1st overall selection) is now in his third organization and a cornucopia of other ’02 first-rounders have borne fruit for their respective teams, and it’s enough to send this writer curling up into a ball playing Sister Sledge’s “We Are Family” until the unpleasant memories subside.

But enough of that. Today, I come to discuss Upton’s seemingly unlimited variety of skills. Expectations have certainly been high for the Norfolk, Virginia native ever since the Rays gladly snatched him up with the 2nd overall pick after the Pirates shot themselves in the foot, and Upton has more than held his own to this point. A career .277/.367/.426 hitter who made his debut in 2004, Upton is still just 24 years of age. He has displayed every tool that you could possibly desire in a major league player at some point during his time with the Rays. Let’s take a look at Upton’s multi-faceted game…

Plate Discipline: Upton has displayed an extremely selective eye for such a young player, drawing walks at a 12.4% clip during the course of his career. He posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (15.4%), and swung at just 15% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That figure tied Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus for the lowest mark among all qualified batters. With such a judicious approach, Upton fell behind 0-and-1 in the count or put the ball in play on the first pitch rarely, with a first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%) of 55.2%.

Power: Sure, Upton’s power output in ’08 was not extraordinary (.401 SLG%, .128 ISO), but the man was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder that sapped his pop for most of the year. Improved health during the postseason brought with it a surge in power, as Upton crushed nearly as many long balls (seven) in the playoffs as he did during the regular season (nine). B.J. slugged .508 with a .209 ISO in 2007, showing that he can hammer the ball as well as work the count.

Speed: While Upton’s shoulder precluded him from jogging around the bases with regularity, there was nothing wrong with his legs in 2008. The 6-3, 185 pounder swiped 44 bags, doubling his 2007 total. He could stand to be a little more selective (he got caught 16 times for a 73.3% success rate), but his base thievery still resulted in a positive 3.6 run contribution for the Rays (.22 for a SB, -.38 for a CS).

Contact Ability: This one is a little trickier to predict. Upton’s contact rate rose from 72.8% in 2007 to 80.5% this past season, and consequently his K rate dipped from 32.5% to 25.2%. We know that his power was down during the regular season. Did Upton, perhaps aware that he wasn’t as likely to slam a pitch over the fence, cut down on his swing in an effort to make more contact? And will those contact gains fade as he shows more extra-base pop and presumably swings for the bleachers with more frequency?

You name the skill, and Upton has shown it as some point during his big league tenure. Via Baseball-Reference, I found a very intriguing name among Upton’s most comparable players through age 23: Carlos Beltran.

Like Upton, Beltran is a center fielder who comes equipped with a tool set that would make Home Depot swoon: a very selective eye, solid power and excellent speed. It remains to be seen whether or not Upton’s raw athleticism will translate as well afield as it has for Beltran (per UZR, Upton was 4.6 runs above average in ’08), but the offensive comparison appears apt. Still a very young man and brimming with ability, Upton has future MVP written all over him.

It’s once again time to play one of our favorite games around these parts: Name That Pitcher! Here are our mystery hurlers…

Pitcher A: 69.1 IP, 11.94 K/9, 4.54 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 82.9 LOB%

Pitcher B: 67 IP, 11.82 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, .308 BABIP, 78.3 LOB%

As you can see, our mystery pitchers are strikingly similar. Both racked up huge strikeout numbers and walked a fair amount of batters. Neither guy experienced terrible luck on balls in play, though Pitcher A fared worse in that category. Pitcher A was also a little better in stranding runners on base. Overall, though, these two stat lines are near reflections of one another.

However, the perception of the two diverges pretty dramatically. Pitcher A was a perfect 41-for-41 in save opportunities and was considered to have perhaps the best relief season in the game. On the other hand, Pitcher B was considered a pretty large disappointment, so much so that he was shipped out of town for a middle reliever, a lukewarm third base prospect and a center fielder who posted a mind-numbing .276 wOBA (22.1 runs below average) in 2008.

So, who are these guys? As you’ve probably already guessed, Pitcher A is Brad Lidge. Pitcher B is…also Brad Lidge, in 2007.

While Lidge was somewhat better in 2008, this comparison serves to show how there really wasn’t that wide of a difference between “head case” Lidge in ’07 and “World Series champ” Lidge in ’08. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times (which evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate), we find that ’07 Lidge (3.42) was a little worse than ’08 Lidge (3.06), but not by as much as one might initially think. What led to the big gap in perception?

Home runs. In 2007, Lidge gave up 9 long balls in 67 innings, or 1.21 per nine innings. His Home/Flyball rate was pretty lofty, at 13.2% (and that was actually an improvement from an inauspicious 16.4% mark in ’06). In 2008, Lidge served up only 2 home runs in 69.1 innings, or a measly 0.26 per nine innings.

Nothing changed dramatically in the Notre Dame product’s batted ball data- rather, his HR/FB rate sank to an absurdly low 3.9%. To put that into context, pitchers typically give up two and a half to three times as many homers per flyball hit, and Lidge’s career HR/FB is 10%. Couple regression to the mean with a homer happy ballpark (Citizens Bank’s three-year HR park factor is 122), and it seems very likely that Lidge’s HR rate will quadruple next season.

This is the challenge faced when evaluating reliever performance. We’re dealing with inherently small sample sizes, and a few fortunate or unlucky bounces here or there can dramatically change the perception and quality of a player’s season. By most measures, Brad Lidge circa 2007 was a doppelganger of the relief ace that helped the Phillies win a world championship. But because a few extra flyballs found their way into the stands in ’07 and virtually none did in ’08, the two seasons are viewed as different as night and day.

The purpose of this exercise is not to diminish Brad Lidge’s accomplishments this past season. He enjoyed an excellent ’08 campaign, racking up a league-leading 5.37 WPA. However, his minuscule HR/FB rate does figure to rise in 2009. With some extra souvenirs likely finding their way to the paying customers, Lidge might revert back to the 2007 version of himself next season. And you know what? That’s not really a bad thing.

At first glance, one might think that Jonathan Broxton just got lost on his way to a San Diego Chargers game. The 6-4, 290 pound behemoth wouldn’t at all look out of place in the huddle (and, in fact, he’s bigger than defensive end Luis Castillo). But Broxton is very much a pitcher, and as one might expect from such a frame, he is capable of tossing scorching fastballs that wear out radar guns everywhere.

Selected out of a Georgia high school in the second round of the 2002 draft, Broxton began his career as a starting pitcher. Fifty of his 87 career minor league appearances were of the starting variety, and he fared quite well in the role. In the High-A Florida State League in 2004, he punched out 144 batters in 128.1 innings, walking 43 and surrendering just 110 hits. Despite the success, Broxton was always seen as a reliever-in-the-making, with his premium heat, sharp slider, ample size and lagging changeup.

Suffice it to say, Broxton took to the bullpen well, and has posted three consecutive high-octane seasons for the Dodgers. His career Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is 2.72, with a gargantuan 11.43 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. Equipped with mid-to-high 90’s gas (which has actually increased in speed each year of his big league career) and an upper-80’s slider, Broxton has been extremely difficult to make contact with. His career Contact% is 72.4%, including a 71.2 mark in 2008 that ranked 10th among all qualified relievers.

Broxton was used in plenty of critical situations in ’08 (his LI was 1.7), but he didn’t perform as well as he had the previous two seasons. While he stranded runners at an 82.2% clip in ’06 and 75.1% in ’07, his LOB% fell to 67.7% in 2008. Broxton’s WPA was -0.14. With a low strand rate and a high BABIP (.328), however, he figures to improve going forward. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Broxton’s ’08 performance (2.91) fit right in with his 2006 (3.33) and 2007 (2.75) showings.

Though he didn’t fare especially well in high-leverage moments in 2008, Broxton still possesses all the skills necessary to become one of the best relievers in the NL. He’ll more than likely get the chance to prove his closer worthiness, as Takashi Saito was recently non-tendered due to concerns over the condition of his elbow. With the ability to miss bats by the bushel, Broxton figures to tackle hitters in the late innings in 2009.

Casey Blake will decline…eventually.

Casey Blake has been remarkably consistent, and has had a nice career for someone who didn’t establish himself in the majors until age 29. Blake hit .274/.345/.463 last year between the Dodgers and Indians, slightly better than his career line of .264/.334/.447. Blake also managed 21 homers and 81 RBI. Blake’s season was right in line with his seasons over the past couple of years, and he virtually no signs of declining whatsoever.

However, next season Blake will be 36, and at some point he will certainly begin to decline. If he manages to have another normal Casey Blake season next year (.260-270 average, 20-25 homers, 70-80 RBI), he will have a fair amount of value in fantasy leagues. However, even a slight decline – especially in power – will put a huge dent in his fantasy value. While he has defied expectations at nearly every stage of his career thus far, age eventually catches up with everyone.

Furthermore, although he will be facing easier pitching in the National League than he faced while with the Indians, Dodger Stadium is not likely to give Blake any breaks. In his admittedly-short time with the Dodgers in 2008, Blake hit .251/.313/.460, which seems like a reasonable facsimile of what to expect in the future. It’s likely that his OBP will be somewhat higher, but Dodger Stadium is a difficult place to hit. The stadium may not hurt Blake’s power, but it will probably sap some of his batting average, perhaps dropping it dangerously low. Furthermore, while Blake will get to hit in Coors Field and Chase Field, he will also have to hit in PETCO Park and AT&T Park, very difficult offensive environments.

Blake could stave off decline for yet another year, but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s a decent fallback option, but if Blake is your starting third baseman, it should be because you’ve loaded your team up in every other area and are forced to take Blake very late.

Casey Blake has had a nice career to this point, but eventually his age is going to catch up with him, and that could very well begin to happen in 2009.

Over the past few years, Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci has compiled a list of starting pitchers that he considers to be particularly risky heading into the next season. Verducci’s list is based on the concept that a young starter (age 25 or below) is at an increased risk of injury if he surpasses his innings pitched total from the previous season by 30 frames or more. As he so often does, Verducci summed up his reasoning in a very articulate manner:

“Why can’t they throw 200 innings? Simply put, they’re not conditioned for it yet. It’s like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It’s a general rule of thumb, and one I’ve been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it’s amazing how often they pay for it.”

Just as a runner must build up strength and endurance over a gradual period of time, a hurler must incrementally boost his workload, lest his arm suffer the pitching equivalent of a cold-turkey 26.2 mile run. The list of talented youngsters who have seemingly fallen victim to the “Verducci Effect” is both sizable and significant. Among those who crossed the 30+ threshold in 2005 and 2006 were Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibal Sanchez. Here’s a look at the list of seven guys that Verducci identified as high-risk entering 2008:

Ian Kennedy, +61 IP

5.45 FIP, 26 BB in 39.2 major league innings, DL stint for a strained right lat.

Fausto Carmona, +56.1 IP

0.83 K/BB ratio in 120.2 IP, DL stint for a left hip strain.

Ubaldo Jimenez, +41.2 IP

No problems here– Jimenez posted a very nice 3.83 FIP.

Tom Gorzelanny, +40.1 IP

Gorzelanny was an absolute mess this past season, with a 6.35 FIP, a demotion to the minors and a DL stint for a left middle finger injury.

Dustin McGowan, +38.2 IP

McGowan’s ascent was curtailed by a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery.

Chad Gaudin, +36 IP

Gaudin posted a pretty solid 4.14 FIP, but he did take a trip to the DL in the spring for a nagging hip injury.

Yovani Gallardo, +33 IP

Gallardo also suffered a serious injury in ’08, but his was of the traumatic sort, as he tore his ACL covering first base at Wrigley Field. It’s hard to pin that on anything but bad luck.

So, out of the seven identified, five served DL stints that seem related to the increased workload, and Kennedy, Carmona and Gorzelanny endured nightmarish seasons. Jimenez was really the only one to come out unscathed, though Gallardo’s health issues certainly seem unrelated.

With the rule of 30 in mind, let’s take a look at a preliminary list of young starters who fall under the “Verducci Effect” for 2009. For the purposes of this list, I excluded pitchers who missed all of 2007 due to injury (such as Liriano), and included only those pitchers who will be 25 or younger on opening day 2009. I wanted to compile a list of guys pitching both seasons, who saw a big jump in IP from ’07 to ’08.

There is also some debate as to how much minor league innings should be “weighed” in the equation. There are some who feel that minor league frames are not as high stress as major league innings, but I have decided to count them as equal here.

Dana Eveland (age 25), +151.1 IP

Eveland tossed just 37.2 innings in 2007 while in the D-Backs’ minor league system, as he dealt with a finger injury. The hefty lefty appeared to tire down the stretch, as he surrendered a .311/.379/.468 line after the all-star break.

Gregory Reynolds
(23), +74.2 IP

Also known as “the guy picked before Evan Longoria“, this Stanford product already hit the minor league DL with a shoulder impingement in July.

Gregory Smith (24, soon 25), +74.1 IP

There are already plenty of reasons to expect this LSU product to trend downward next season, and the big increase in innings won’t help.

Charlie Morton (25), +74 IP

Jon Lester (25), +74 IP

Lester is admittedly a unique case, and it’s hard to say whether or not he faces the same injury risk as some of these other guys or not. For what it’s worth, Lester was sitting 90-91 MPH with his fastball in the early months of the season, but was firing 94 MPH bullets by the time September rolled around.

Cole Hamels (24), +72.1 IP

Hamels was no stranger to injury coming up through the Phillies’ farm system, and a whopping 35 postseason innings gave him a combined 262.1 frames tossed during the 2008 season. He’s incredibly gifted, but his health does bear watching.

Chad Billingsley (24), +65.1 IP

Chad beat the rule of 30 to the punch, as he unfortunately slipped on some ice and broke his leg outside of his Pennsylvania home (which begs the question, if you work in LA, why live in Pennsylvania?)

John Danks (23), +62.2 IP

Danks took some huge strides forward in 2008, but he’ll have to combat a big innings increase to maintain his status as one of the better starters in the American League.

Matt Harrison (23), +51 IP

Tim Lincecum (24), +49.2 IP

Giants manager Bruce Bochy did not seem to use much discretion with Lincecum in ’08, bringing him back into a game after a lengthy rain delay and allowing him to toss at least 110 pitches in 18 of his 33 starts. We’ve all heard the arguments of Lincecum’s “rubber arm” and freakishness, but Tim racked up the highest Pitcher Abuse Points score by a wide margin, and accumulated such a lofty workload for a cellar-dweller. From a cost/benefit standpoint, was it really worth pushing the guy so hard?

Mike Pelfrey (24, soon 25), +48 IP

Pelfrey improved his control in ’08 (2.87 BB/9), though the 6-7 righty continued to post finesse-type strikeout numbers (4.93 per nine innings). Is a fastball-centric pitcher like Pelfrey (81.2% usage), who rarely snaps off a slider or a curve, less likely to feel the effects of a big increase in innings? Thoughts?

Peter will have more on Pelfrey in the coming days.

Clayton Kershaw (20, soon 21), +47 IP

The Dodgers have tried to be careful with their big southpaw who comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a devastating slow curve, but Kershaw still crossed the innings threshold by a decent margin. Considering his age and enormous importance to the franchise, expect Kershaw to be kept on a pretty strict innings limit in 2009.

Jair Jurrjens (22, soon 23), +45 IP

Jurrjens was solid for Atlanta this past season. He did have some shoulder issues in the minors, however, and tossed nearly 190 frames in 2008.

Matt Garza (25), +38.1 IP

Garza’s 25 postseason innings pushed him into Verducci territory.

Brandon Morrow (24), +32 IP

Because he was strangely pigeonholed in the bullpen for the better part of two seasons, this 2006 first-rounder has not been given the opportunity to gradually build up his arm strength in the minors. The Mariners began to transition Morrow into a starter last season, and new management seems to be going ahead with the plan. If Morrow begins the season in the rotation, he is going to soar past the 95.1 innings he threw in 2008. This situation calls to mind the Joba Chamberlain conundrum from last season. Of course, none of this would be an issue had Morrow been given the development time and innings necessary to incrementally increase his workload.

That’s the list: 15 in all. It’s important to point out that this is just one piece of evidence to take into account when evaluating a starter’s expected level of performance in the coming season. This is not a hard and fast rule; there are exceptions. However, it is an interesting and useful tool, as the risk of injury does seem to climb as a young starter gets beyond that 30 inning rule. By no means should you shy away from some of the top-tier performers on this list. Just keep in mind that their respective workloads did increase greatly, and it wouldn’t be unprecedented if injury or attrition set in for some of these guys in 2009.