Many fantasy players like to avoid starting pitchers with low strikeout rates, and rightly so. Often times, strikeout rate goes hand in hand with success as a starting pitcher. Many high strikeout pitchers also accumulate many wins and have low ERA and WHIPs. However, you don’t have to strike lots of batters out in order to be a successful pitcher at the major league level.

Baseball abounds with relatively low-risk players who are very solid pitchers but don’t get many strikeouts. Names like Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Sonnanstine, Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook, Kevin Slowey, and others don’t inspire visions of leading a fantasy team to the promised land, but they are often the best values in drafts. While they may not get that many strikeouts, these pitchers are likely to have a lot of wins, as well as low ERAs and WHIPs. Furthermore, because they are relatively low risk, they are still going to get their share of strikeouts. Over 180 innings, a pitcher who strikes out only 5.5 batters per nine innings will rack up 110 strikeouts. Sure, Joba Chamberlain might average a strikeout per inning, but if Joba only pitches 100 innings…well, you can do the math.

That’s not to say that Andy Sonnanstine is better than Joba Chamberlain; rather, it’s to say that Sonnanstine has more value than Joba, because of their respective draft positions. By drafting Sonnanstine you are sacrificing somewhat on strikeouts, but you’re enhancing your team because you are able to get Sonnanstine relatively late in the draft, allowing your team to stock up in something else (Power? Saves? Steals?) earlier.

Of course, it would be no good to come in last in your league in strikeouts, but this is unlikely even if you have several Andy Sonnanstines on your team. Remember, guy like Sonnanstine will still get a fair share of strikeouts simply because they are likely to pitch a lot of innings; furthermore, other teams are likely to experience injury and performance issues that will keep their pitchers’ strikeout totals down.

Also, there is nothing wrong with drafting some high strikeout pitchers as well. The best fantasy teams are a mix of risk and reward. Just keep in mind that while they may not be particularly sexy, there are some very valuable low strikeout pitchers who can fill out your staff for a relatively low price.

Don’t look now, but Giants GM Brian Sabean may very well be enjoying the best offseason of any GM, non-Yankees division. In addition to bringing still-nasty Randy Johnson into the fold for what figures to be a below-market deal, Sabean has added a potentially useful middle man in Bob Howry, a cheap power bat in Josh Phelps and a shortstop in Edgar Renteria who will at least abate those Brian Bocock-induced nightmares. But Sabean kicked off his solid winter by snagging southpaw Jeremy Affeldt to a shrewd two-year, $8 million deal.

A lefty who cooks with gas, Affeldt was nonetheless a perennial disappointment in Kansas City, throwing hard but indiscriminate pitches that often resulted in a free pass for the batter (that role is now dutifully filled by Kyle Farnsworth, who must have some embarrassing photos of Dayton Moore or something; how else does a replacement-level reliever snag two years and $9.25 mil? Farnsy might be able to outslug Affeldt, but outpitching him seems pretty unlikely. But I digress.)

After a solid 2003 campaign with K.C. (3.74 FIP in 18 starts and 18 relief appearances), Affeldt tossed 76.1 frames and a 4.16 FIP in 2004, again splitting time between the rotation and the ‘pen while battling a rib cage injury. He followed that up with a 2005 campaign in which he hit the DL with a groin strain on two separate occasions. After a disastrous ’06 season where he was traded to Colorado mid-season (97.1 IP, 5.65 FIP), he turned in a decent 2007 season with the Rockies, posting a 4.17 FIP in 59 innings. His control still left much to be desired, however (5.03 BB/9).

The 6-4, 225 pounder inked a 1-year, $3 million deal with the Reds last offseason. Upon reaching Cincy, Affeldt appeared to transform into a different type of pitcher. In 78.1 innings, he posted a career-best 3.66 FIP, generating nearly two ground balls for every flyball hit. One might that that Affeldt’s ’08 season was just a flash in the pan, the sort of thing that occasionally happens with relievers in a relatively small sample of innings. And perhaps that’s true. But, there are several reasons to believe that this new-and-improved Affeldt is here to stay.

Nothing in Affeldt’s stat sheet suggests that his performance in Cincy was a fluke. He upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 9.19 batters per nine innings, over two K’s per nine more than 2007. Most importantly, he shaved his walk rate by a significant margin, issuing 2.87 BB/9.

Not surprisingly, Affeldt increased his first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%). Batters found themselves behind 0-and-1 or put the ball in play 57.9% of the time in 2008, up from 55.7% in ’07 and just 49.3% in ’06. If anything, Affeldt was actually unlucky in 2008. His BABIP was .329 behind a leaky Cincinnati defense (29th in team Defense Efficiency), and his home run/flyball rate of 15% about 3-4% above the typical rate for pitchers. Using XFIP to normalize that HR/FB rate, Affeldt’s ERA drops to 3.40. For comparison, Francisco Rodriguez’s XFIP was 3.71 in 2008.

So, how did Affeldt turn his career around? The 29 year-old found an additional 2 MPH on his fastball, throwing his heater at an average velocity of 94.6 MPH (92.3 MPH in ’07). Also, his big-breaking, high-70’s curve showed a lot more bite this past season. Let’s take a look at Affeldt’s pitch f/x data from Josh Kalk’s blog:

2007

Fastball: 5.46 X, 10.05 Z
Curveball: -3.08 X, -1.25 Z
Changeup: 3.46 X, 8.29 Z

2008

Fastball: 5.87 X, 8.68 Z
Curveball: -4.87 X, -5.57 Z
Changeup: 6.48 X, 7.08 Z

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Look at the difference in depth between his ’07 curve and the nasty hammer he threw in 2008- his ’08 curve dropped over four inches more in the zone than it did the previous year. With a hopping heater and a sinister hook, Affeldt lowered his Contact% to 73.5% (down from 81.2% in ’07, ranking between Grant Balfour and Hong Chih Kuo) and baited batters into fishing for a pitch outside of the strike zone 26% of the time (22.6% in ’07).

As of right now, Affeldt is penciled in to be either the 7th or 8th-inning guy in San Francisco, but it’s possible that he rises from that position at some point. Current closer Brian Wilson also misses plenty of bats, but he’s not infallible, as his career 4.34 BB/9 suggests. If Wilson experiences some rough moments, Affeldt has the goods to close the door and pick up some saves along the way.

I don’t know about you, but stolen bases are incredibly annoying for me. There are very few players who can steal bases and help in other ways as well, and these players naturally tend to be highly valued. As such, I’ve developed a strategy for steals: try to get ‘em early, and then wait until late. Here’s why:

There aren’t many guys who can steal 30+ bases and hit for power. There are a fair amount of guys who can steal a bunch of bases and not really do much else, however. The five dimensional players like Grady Sizemore and Hanley Ramirez are among the best in the game, and are probably first round picks. Then there are the few players who can be counted on for a ton of steals, even if they won’t add too much power, like Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes. If you can get any of these guys, go for it, as they provide a tremendous amount of value. However, these types of players are almost always drafted before the third round, and it’s difficult to get one of them, let alone two.

After these types of players, there is a huge drop off among speedsters. A guy who will steal 20-30 bases with a decent batting average and nothing else just isn’t very valuable in a fantasy league, since he really only provides value in one category, and often times not even that much value. Avoid these types of players, as they are almost always overvalued. People are (rightly) concerned with the scarcity of speed, but they don’t understand that you can often find speedy players at the end of the draft.

Yes, usually these speedsters have more flaws than their fellow base stealers who are drafted earlier, but the difference in value is minimal. If you miss out on someone like Reyes or Sizemore, you still need to address steals, but you don’t particularly care if the guy also hits 2 homers or 11 homers. The difference in the amount of homers he hits is negligible – it’s all about the steals. The same goes for other categories. You don’t really care how many runs he drives in, you just want thefts. Don’t pay extra for minimal upgrades in other categories.

Be sure to add enough steals to your team, but don’t worry if you have to get the bulk of your steals late in the draft with such no-name players as Eugenio Velez, Michael Bourn, Carlos Gomez or Rajai Davis. Their thefts are just as valuable as someone like Chone Figgins’s, and the difference in other categories is not usually big enough to warrant the higher draft position of someone like Figgins.

Make sure you have enough steals on your team, but don’t worry if you have to wait until late in the draft to add that category to your team.

The very nature of pitching is unpredictable. The human arm isn’t meant to throw a baseball 90+ MPH repeatedly every fifth day. Furthermore, stats such as wins, WHIP and ERA – which are commonly used in most fantasy leagues – are often derivatives of a pitcher’s home park, teammates, and luck, rather than his individual skill. As such, pitching is extremely volatile and hard to predict.

In contrast, while nothing in baseball is easy to predict, predicting power output is a lot less difficult than predicting pitching results. Year in and year out, the same guys are on the home run leaderboard. Of course, there are many variables here too – some guys get injured, others seemingly come out of nowhere, and every now and then some team gets Pronked when Travis Hafner declines for no apparent reason. But in a general sense, you know what players are likely to hit lots of home runs each year.

Furthermore, every time a player hits a home run, he also gets a hit, drives in a run (often more) and scores a run. Therefore, each long ball helps a player in four distinct categories. A home run is the most efficient way of improving your team, and is perhaps the easiest thing to predict (of all of the fantasy baseball categories, that is). Thus, many times it will make sense for you to load up on sluggers in your draft. Don’t necessarily worry that many of them play first base – there’s nothing wrong with using your DH or utility position on a second hulking first baseman who is likely to hit 30-40 homers.

Of course, sluggers are very valuable in fantasy leagues, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t have several on your team. I see nothing wrong with taking sluggers with three or four of your first five picks. Having that many sluggers on your team gives you a huge advantage in the home run category, and these players are less likely to drastically underperform than someone like an ace starting pitcher. And remember, every homer hit helps you in four of the five fantasy categories.

This is not a fool-proof strategy – there is no such thing in fantasy baseball (that’s what makes it so much fun, right?). But one of the most important aspects of fantasy baseball is minimizing risk, and often time sluggers represent among the lowest risks out there. If you build your team around homers, everything else falls into place nicely.

It was shaping up as a disappointing season for Kelly Johnson in 2008 until a strong September. After three straight months of hitting .250 or less, Johnson posted a 22-game hitting streak in the season’s final month, which led to a .398/.429/.643 line over his final 106 plate appearances. That final surge rescued his overall numbers and his fantasy season and he finished as a top 10 second baseman.

But should a .450 BABIP in September cloud our judgment on what happened the other five months of the season?

The biggest thing about Johnson’s year was the collapse of his walk rate. Seemingly taking a page out of Jeff Francoeur’s book, Johnson swung at 7.6 percent more pitches in 2008 than the previous year and most of those were pitches outside the zone. His O-Swing % jumped from 18.4 percent to 25.6 percent. And that led to his BB% dropping from 13.2 to 8.7 percent.

So, even though Johnson added 11 points to his batting average, his on-base percentage fell 26 points – no easy task. His ISO also dropped 21 points. Interestingly, he saw his K% actually fall despite swinging at more bad pitches. But if we look at Francoeur, we notice the same pattern unfolding during his career in Atlanta.

Also like Francouer, Johnson has seen his HR/FB rates fall. The more aggressive Johnson posted a 7.6 HR/FB% in 2008, a rate which matched his IFFB%.

The saving grace for Johnson was his LD%. He finished tied for fifth in the majors with a 24.7 percent line drive rate. Not surprisingly, that helped Johnson to a .344 BABIP, the 16th-best mark in the majors.

Both Bill James and Marcel predict a rebound year for Johnson in 2009. Both projection systems see him getting his BB% back into double digits with subsequent increases in both his OBP and SLG.

There is certainly reason for optimism surrounding Johnson coming into 2009. The hot September and the season-long line drive rates are two positive markers. But the combination of the falling walk rate combined with the uptick in swinging at pitches outside the zone is just too much to ignore.

There was a big drop-off in production from second basemen after Johnson and Placido Polanco, who each returned over $11 in 2008. After those two the next most valuable at the position was Kaz Matsui, at a little over $5. Given the uncertainty over Johnson’s performance – do you really want to count on another month with a .450 BABIP? – bidding a double-digit salary seems a very risky move.

By definition, saves are incredibly scarce. There are only 30 teams in baseball, and there are only going to be so many save opportunities for each team. Furthermore, in order to be credited with a save, a pitcher must be used in a save situation. “Closers” are more a product of their usage and environment than any other player in baseball.

As such, it may be tempting to draft sure-thing closers like Jonathan Papelbon or Mariano Rivera with a high pick. These guys are almost certainly going to get their share of saves, and they should help in other categories too. Therefore, they have tremendous value.

Don’t fall victim for this line of thinking. While everything I wrote above is true, it also is misleading. Yes, closers are volatile from year to year and save totals fluctuate; however, if you know where (and how) to look, you should be able to take advantage of undervalued closers.

The key to accumulating saves is a) pitching in save situations and b) pitching decently. This may seem obvious, but remember that (a) is far more important than (b). Yes, some pitchers will lose their job as closer, but this happens more rarely than you may think. To get saves, a pitcher must be used in save situations. To maximize the value of closers in your league, you first need to identify which pitchers are most likely going to be used in save situations.

Then you should attempt to assess how likely they are to be removed from their closer’s role if they perform poorly. For example, Kerry Wood is probably not going to be demoted to mop-up duties if he blows two saves in a row. Neither is Bobby Jenks. However, someone like George Sherrill could lose his closer’s role if he struggles, simply because he doesn’t have the same established track record as the other pitchers. If a pitcher is likely to get the majority of save opportunities and is unlikely to be demoted if he struggles a little bit, then he has a lot of value in a fantasy league. Any pitcher who meets those criteria is valuable; how good a pitcher he is is FAR less important. In other words, the difference between Jonathan Papelbon and someone like Bobby Jenks – who meets the two criteria but is much worse than Papelbon – is far less than the difference in their draft position.

Therefore, it makes the most sense to draft guys who meet those two criteria but aren’t necessarily the best of the bunch. Closers exist to get you one thing and one thing only: saves. Yes, sometimes they can help in ERA, WHIP, or even strikeouts, but their help in these categories is usually minimal, due to the fact that most closers don’t pitch more than 60-70 innings per season. Simply put, an ERA of 2.00 over 60 innings doesn’t influence your team’s overall ERA that much. Sure, it helps, but it’s not worth drafting (for example) Papelbon in the 4th round when Jenks can be had in the 13th.

Bottom line: the difference between the best “closer” and the worst “closer” is far less than the difference in their value on draft day. Therefore, you should identify all players who fall onto the list of “closer” – remember, that means guys who are likely going to be used in save situations and probably aren’t going to be removed if they blow back to back outings – and aim to acquire a few of the lesser pitchers on the list. Your team will be better off for it.

Over the next week or so, I will be running a series of strategy articles to help prepare for your fantasy drafts. Please feel free to post any questions or ideas in the comments section.

Have a plan – and don’t stick to it.

To be successful in a fantasy draft, you need to have a plan. You need to have some idea of the players that you want to take, and know the approximate values of everyone, so you can spot value wherever it may be. You may even want to have a more specific strategy, such as punting a category or concentrating on stocking your team in several categories. However, as important as any plan may be, it’s just as important to know when to abandon your plan.

Let’s say that your strategy is to load up on starting pitching, because you feel that there are very few really high quality starters available, and if you can corner the market everyone else is going to have to dig through the scrap heap to fill out their roster. As such, you plan on taking three or four ace level starters in a row, starting in the second round. Well, let’s say that right after you select your first ace, the next three teams all select aces as well. Suddenly, there are very few other aces available, and if you want to stick to your strategy it would require you to draft non-ace level pitchers in the next several rounds. In other words, you’d have to overdraft pitchers to be able to carry out your plan.

In this situation (or any other similar situation), even though you had a plan, you must switch courses immediately. The best fantasy players are people with plans and the ability to adapt instantly should their plans be thwarted. If you understand the dynamic of any draft, you will be able to exploit it. In this particular example, starting pitchers are being overvalued, and there are bound to be some players who are not being valued appropriately. Rather than playing along with everyone else and drafting pitchers too soon, you should adapt your strategy to exploit whatever is now undervalued – perhaps it’s steals, power, or saves. Whatever it is, if you identify the market in your draft, you can work it to your advantage.

While it’s vitally important to know as many players as possible, it’s just as important to be flexible and adapt to whatever surprising things may happen during your draft. Drafts can be won or lost on this skill alone.

If the 2009 Major League Baseball season were to begin today, there would be a lot of uncertainty behind home plate for most of the clubs in the American League East. Aside from the New York Yankees organization, which features veterans Jorge Posada and Jose Molina behind the dish, the remaining clubs have big question marks.

The Baltimore Orioles club does not currently have a catcher on its 40-man roster, although it does feature three non-roster invitees for spring training: Chad Moeller, Jose Reyes, and Guillermo Rodriguez. The club is expected to hand the No. 1 starting role to phenom Matt Wieters, who spent 2008 in both High-A and Double-A, where he batted a combined .353/.452/.599 in 434 at-bats. Despite his inexperience, it would not be shocking to see Wieters become the most productive backstop in the AL East next season.

In Boston, barring a late return from former captain Jason Varitek, the club could end up with some very poor offensive numbers from some fringe catching prospects currently on the 40-man roster, including George Kottaras, Dusty Brown and Mark Wagner. Kottaras has the most MLB experience of the trio, but with just five at-bats, that is not saying much. He hit 22 homers in Triple-A in 2008, but managed a batting average of just .243. Brown, 26, had a nice line in Triple-A in 2008 at .290/.374/.471, but he struck out 81 times in 297 at-bats (27.3%). Wagner has the best chance of developing into a starting catcher at the Major League level, but he is also the furthest away having spent the 2008 season hitting .219/.297/.363 in 342 Double-A at-bats at the age of 24. His offensive numbers prior to 2008 were much more encouraging.

In Tampa Bay, Dioner Navarro is pretty much entrenched behind the plate, having appeared in 120 games for the club last season. But he may need more rest after also appearing in 119 games in 2007 and that job will likely go to either Shawn Riggans, or John Jaso. Riggans was the go-to reserve in 2008 before injuries ruined his season. Even when healthy, though, the 28-year-old hit just .222/.287/.407 in 135 at-bats. Jaso is the organization’s catcher of the future, but he has just 118 at-bats above Double-A, including 10 at the Major League level. He is not quite ready for a regular roster spot.

In Toronto, the Canadian dollar’s decreased value has not helped the club in its search for a capable replacement for departed free agent Gregg Zaun. The job is likely going to be handed to former second round draft pick Curtis Thigpen, who had a horrendous offensive season in 2008. He managed a line of just .222/.264/.310 in 361 Triple-A at-bats and an average of .176 in 17 big league at-bats. He has the potential to hit for a better average but he lacks power and his defence is nothing to write home about. Luckily, the 25-year-old has some competition on the way in the form of two prospects who will be splitting time behind the dish in Triple-A in 2009: J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman. Arencibia, 22, hit 27 homers and drove in 105 runs last year over two minor league levels. Jeroloman is a stellar defensive catcher who walks more than he strikes out and posted a .427 OBP in 2007 and a .396 OBP in 2008. Rod Barajas will be the main catcher for Toronto in 2009 and he is coming of one of his better offensive seasons in the last couple of years with a line of .249/.294/.410 in .349 at-bats.

There is plenty of time for the AL East clubs – especially Boston – to improve their offensive potentials behind the dish. Even New York, which appears set at catcher, could face rough times if the picture remains the same in April as it is now. Posada is coming off his worst offensive season in years, including his lowest wOBA since 1999, and can now be considered an injury risk given his age (37) and games played (just shy of 1,500).

If you’re looking for offence from a catcher for your Fantasy Baseball team in 2009, consider the projected starters from the AL East in this order: Wieters, Posada, Navarro, Barajas, Kottaras. As for the remaining catchers, Arencibia and Jaso are names to stash away for 2010 and beyond.

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Webb generates ground balls. A lot of them. In fact, the University of Kentucky product lapped the competition in terms of burning worms in 2008, with a 3.15 GB/FB ratio (second place went to free agent Derek Lowe, at a distant 2.63 to one).

With so many of Webb’s offerings being pounded into the infield dirt, the D-Backs’ co-ace will often require the services of his infielders to convert those grounders into outs. Let’s take a look at Arizona’s projected starting infield for the 2009 season, with their 2008 and career UZR/150 ratings at their respective positions:

1B Conor Jackson: 4.4 UZR/150 in ’08, -1.6 UZR/150 career
2B Felipe Lopez: -7.9 UZR/150 in ’08, -4.4 UZR/150 career
SS Stephen Drew: -14.5 UZR/150 in ’08, -13.5 UZR/150 career
3B Mark Reynolds: -2.2 UZR/150 in ’08, -4.6 UZR/150 career

Yuck. Arizona’s projected infield rated as 20.2 runs below average per 150 games last season, and the career totals are even worse: -24.1 runs below per 150 contests. If these guys continue to flash leaden leather, Webb might not be on speaking terms with his infielders by May. Granted, the 29 year-old posted a .297 BABIP with Drew and Reynolds on the left side of the infield and Jackson occasionally at first in 2008, but it’s still disconcerting that such a groundball-centric pitcher will reside in front of four below-average defenders.

Over the past few weeks, I have discussed the importance of context when evaluating pitchers. Whether it be Texas’ similarly lagging fielding prowess or Seattle’s new incredibly rangy outfield, the quality of the defenders behind a pitcher can make a noticeable impact on his performance. When a batter puts the ball in play, the pitcher is fairly dependent upon his fielders to convert that ball into an out. When those defenders struggle to do so, that pitcher is going to surrender some hits and runs that he really shouldn’t have.

Luckily with Webb, the pitcher in question here also possesses excellent controllable skills that aren’t subject to the caprices of his defense. With a 2.82 K/BB ratio and few home runs surrendered, Webb posted a 3.28 FIP this past season. Webb is undoubtedly an excellent starter deserving of a high draft pick. But, it is worth noting that the fielders behind him aren’t especially adept and might cause his stat line to look a little worse than it should.

Derrek Lee finished 21st in the MVP vote in 2008 on the heels of his .291/.361/.462 season for the NL Central-winning Chicago Cubs. But as impressive as that may be, Lee is a fringe fantasy starter in a 12-team mixed league.

In 2005, the idea that Lee would be a fringe starter just a few years later was absurd. That season he went .335-46-107 and seemingly had the world at his feet. But after signing a five-year contract in April of 2006, Lee suffered a right wrist injury that ruined his season and apparently robbed him of his power.

When he returned in 2007, Lee hit just 22 HR and his 12.6 percent HR/FB ratio was nearly half the total he posted in his big 2005 season of 23.7 percent. In 2008, many thought his power would return with him being further out from the wrist surgery. But Lee’s HR/FB ratio fell to 11.7 percent and his FB% fell to 33.7 percent, a career low.

What HR power Lee does possess at this point seems to be a Wrigley Field illusion. In the past two seasons, he’s hit 31 HR at home and just 11 in neutral road parks.

Lee enters 2009 as a 33-year old with limited power at a fantasy position that demands big HR and RBI numbers. In 2008, Lee had the 11th-best dollar value among first basemen, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Among those beneath him and ready to challenge him for a spot in the top 12 are Joey Votto, Carlos Pena, Chris Davis and Pablo Sandoval. Aubrey Huff and Jorge Cantu have first base eligibility, as well.