Every league is a little different. Some have 8 teams, some have 12. Some are NL Only. Some have daily lineup updates, some weekly. Some have three day waiver periods, others have one day periods. Some have two catchers; others have four utility spots. Knowing the intricacies of your league is extremely important for success.

For example, let’s say you play in a league with daily updates. Assuming you have the time and energy, it may be possible to take advantage of this in a number of ways. First of all, you can draft players who may struggle against left-handed pitchers, because you are generally able to bench them when they face lefties and play someone else instead, thereby extracting maximum value. Or you may be able to stock up on relief pitchers, knowing that you can simply rotate the several starting pitchers on your team only when they take the hill.

Or let’s say that you play in a league with two catchers. That means that there are going to be some seriously bad catchers on peoples’ rosters – therefore, you may want to use some of your earlier round picks on two of the better catchers. Not only does this assure you of solid production from your catching position, but it somewhat corners the market on catchers, causing other teams to have to settle for very minimal production from their catching spot.

Or let’s say that your league has an unusually high amount of utility or DH slots. If this is the case, you may want to stock up on as many outstanding offensive players early in the draft, since you don’t have to worry about their position. A team with Albert Pujols, , Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez as their first four picks normally wouldn’t seem very smart, but if you have the utility spots to cover those players, it may be worthwhile.

In a 10 team league without a middle infielder position, you may want to wait to draft a second baseman or shortstop (or both), because you can get a decent player at those positions very late in the draft. But in a 12-team league with a “middle infield” position as well as SS and 2B, you may not want to wait as long, because the remaining players who qualify at those positions will be terrible.

Every league is different. Before you draft, take the time to understand the intricacies of your league, and think about what they mean for you. There is almost always a way to take advantage of small things in a league – and the best players figure them out before everyone else.

Entering the 2008 season, right-hander Brad Penny likely had free agent riches in his sights. The 30 year-old had posted a sub-four Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) for five straight seasons, including a 2007 campaign in which he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2001. With another strong showing Penny figured to snag a pretty penny, securing a long-term pact paying an annual salary in the eight-figure range.

Those hopes of a lavish multi-year deal never materialized, however, as Penny dealt with a shoulder injury that placed him on the 15-day DL three separate times: “mild tendinitis” in June, “shoulder inflammation” in August, and “shoulder soreness” in August.

In between that trio of trips to the DL, a less-than optimal Penny turned in his worst season as a professional. Tossing just 94.2 frames, the 2006 NL All-Star starter punched out less than five batters per nine innings while walking about four per nine. Combined with an elevated home run rate (1.24 per nine), Penny posted a 5.27 FIP. Penny’s fastball velocity was down a tick from 2007 (from 93.4 MPH to 92.4 MPH), and the speed of his heater jumped around quite a bit during the summer months as he tried to pitch through his shoulder ailment:

June: 94.1 MPH
(DL stint)
August: 89.6 MPH
(DL stint)
September: 92.8 MPH
(DL stint)

Take a look at these clips from the Baseball-Intellect website. One shows Penny unleashing a 97 MPH fastball in a May 13th start versus Milwaukee, while the other shows Brad more or less lobbing a 90 MPH pitch August 8th against San Francisco. Cleary, Penny’s shoulder was bothering him a great deal. It’s difficult to argue with R.J. Anderson, who suggests that it would have been in the best interests of both the free-agent-to-be and the Dodgers for Penny to have shut it down far earlier than he did.

Penny was forced to take a one-year deal following his injury-wracked season, inking a one-year, $5 million contract with the Red Sox that includes an additional $3 million in possible incentives. Let’s assume for the time being that Penny reports to spring training in good health. The 6-4, 260 pounder has never posted ace-like peripherals, but his league-average K rate (6.36 K/9), decent control (2.93 BB/9) and mild groundball tendencies (48.7 GB% in ’07, 49.1% in ’08) have allowed him to post a very useful 3.95 career FIP.

Marcel projects a 4.11 FIP out of Penny in 127 innings, meaning that Brad would surrender about 58 runs. A replacement-level starter (with a 5.50 FIP) would give up about 77.6 runs in the same number of innings. Penny’s 19.6 runs above replacement (1.96 WAR) would make him worth about $9.4 million, using a scale of $4.8 million per WAR. In other words, Brad would be well worth his salary, even if he didn’t hit the 160-inning threshold that kickstarts his incentive money. Bringing in a solid starter like Penny on a one-year deal was a shrewd move by an organization that makes plenty of intelligent decisions. If Penny makes a full season’s worth of starts, he’ll be an outright steal.

If Penny’s shoulder heals, he could be a nice bargain on draft day. Some owners might have a sour taste in their mouths from his 2008 work, but the big righty is certainly worth tracking during the offseason. If the medical reports sound promising, give some thought to picking up a Penny for your fantasy squad.

Remember when Paul Konerko was an elite hitter? It wasn’t that long ago that the White Sox first baseman hit .313/.381/.551 with 35 homers. In fact, Konerko posted that line in 2006, after eclipsing the 40 homer mark in both 2004 and 2005.

Of course, one the tenets of baseball analysis is that hitters – especially one dimensional sluggers, tend to age rather rapidly. However, Konerko is only going to be 33 years old, and has shown signs that he may not have run out of steam entirely.

Last season, Konerko had a rather mediocre line of .240/.344/.438 with 22 homers in 122 games. However, as we will see, Konerko was struck with a bout of bad luck, and also showed significant signs of life towards the end of the season.

The first thing to note about Konerko’s 2008 was his poor luck with balls in play. His BABIP was a mere .247, much lower than his career average of .285. His line drive percentage remained high, at 21.5%, right in line with his career LD% of 21.4%. Furthermore, he struck out at the same rate as he has over the last five seasons (he struck out in 18.3% of his at bats in 2008 – his K rate has remained between 18% and 19% every year dating back to 2004), and he actually had the highest walk rate of his career as well.

According to the BABIP model I introduced with Chris Dutton, Konerko’s expected BABIP was .280 this year (incidentally, Konerko is a good example of a player for whom the “old” model of predicting BABIP – namely, adding .120 to line drive percentage – is a poor indicator of true BABIP, as our “new” model has consistently predicted Konerko’s BABIP to be far lower than the “old” model). The 15% difference between Konerko’s actual BABIP and his expected BABIP was the 14th biggest difference among all full-time players in 2008 – in other words, Konerko was extremely unlucky on balls in play.

Furthermore, Konerko’s 2008 was plagued with injury woes. Konerko strained his oblique and was put on the disabled list in June – he was hitting a paltry .215/.325/.368 with 8 homers at the time, so it’s very possible that Konerko tried to play through the injury before finally being placed on the DL (in fact, in the 30 games prior to the DL, Konerko hit only .202/.281/.330).

After coming back from the injury on July 8, Konerko hit like himself again. In the final 60 games of the season, Konerko posted a line of .267/.366/.514 with 14 homers – while striking out 37 times and drawing 30 walks. He suffered a sprained knee in September but managed to play well despite it; both the knee and oblique should be fully healthy in 2009.

At age 33, Konerko will remain an injury risk, and likely will not be able to perform at the same level that he did in his peak. However, rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Konerko suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck on balls in play that should regress next season, thus raising hit batting average.

Furthermore, although he may not hit 40 homers, he still has enough power to hit 30-35 bombs, and will be helped (as always) by the fly-ball-friendly confines of US Cellular Field. As Konerko demonstrated in the last three months of 2009, when healthy he can still be an offensive force. And he can probably be had relatively late in most drafts, as less-astute owners will assume that he’s washed up.

Paul Konerko is an excellent sleeper for fantasy baseball in 2009.

Fantasy players love sluggers. And few sluggers have been more consistent than Adam Dunn, who has cleared the 40-HR mark five years in a row, with exactly 40 dongs the past four seasons. He’s also been right around the 100-RBI mark that same time span. Up until last year, he’s also been right around 100 Runs scored. But his fantasy value took a hit last year as he dropped from 101 R to 79 and saw his AVG fall from .264 to .236.

Dunn reached base via a hit or walk 239 times in 2007 and 244 times last year. But that increase of five was reached thanks to 22 extra walks. Dunn suffered a 47-point drop in BABIP, which led to a .262 mark last year. Most of that damage occurred in June, when his BABIP was .190 even after eliminating the 39 strikeouts in 87 at-bats. Interestingly, Dunn snapped out of his funk after Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi trashed him on a radio show, saying, “We’ve done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there’s a reason why we don’t want Adam Dunn.

“Do you know the guy doesn’t really like baseball that much?” Ricciardi said to the caller. “Do you know the guy doesn’t have a passion to play the game that much?”

Ricciardi’s rant occurred right before an Interleague Series between the Reds and Blue Jays. Up until the series against Toronto, Dunn was mired in a 6-75 (.080 AVG) slump. He went 4-12 versus the Blue Jays and hit .249/.387/.529 for the remainder of the season.

Because Dunn is so consistent with his HR and RBI, where he rates as a fantasy hitter depends a lot on his AVG. He provides fourth-round value if he hits in the .260s, like he did in 2004 and 2007. But when that mark drops into the .230s, like it did in 2006 and 2008, he’s only giving owners seventh-round (or later) value.

What makes Dunn so intriguing to fantasy players is that you can match him with certain players and come up with a really nice combination. He is a fine complement to Jose Reyes or Ichiro Suzuki, to name just two guys who will give you AVG and SB but who may be lacking in HR and RBI.

So, where should you draft Dunn in 2009?

A lot will depend if you (or any other owner in your league) decide to punt steals. But even ignoring that for a moment, it’s hard to think about drafting him before the end of the fourth round. There is simply too much variability in his track record to think about him in the first three rounds.

Even the fourth round is a bit of a stretch, unless you are trying to make up power and can take the AVG and SB hit. But if Dunn is still sitting there at the end of the sixth round any team, regardless of its makeup to that point, should consider adding him because he’s likely to bounce back in BABIP and AVG in 2009.

And if Dunn signs with the Cubs, he may be worthy of even a higher draft pick. He has a lifetime .664 SLG mark in Wrigley Field in 217 at-bats, the highest mark for any stadium in which he has more than 66 lifetime ABs.

One thing that fantasy players value in their picks is consistency. And for the past three seasons, Jose Reyes has been one of the most consistent players around. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Reyes has finished third, seventh and first among hitters in dollar values earned the past three seasons.

Some fantasy players shy away from Reyes because he does not hit a lot of HR or drive in a bunch of runs. But in the past four seasons, he has finished first three times and second once in the National League in SB. And he’s nearly as productive in runs, with Reyes notching two fourth-place finishes and a fifth in the NL the past three seasons.

And while Reyes will never find himself in the top 10 in HR, he does have solid pop for a leadoff hitter. He has averaged nearly 16 HR per season the past three years. Reyes is also good for an average in the .290 range.

And while it’s true that he is weak in RBIs, Reyes had 68 last year and has driven in as many as 81 in a season. So it’s nowhere near the black hole for a category that a slugger like Ryan Howard totaling one SB is.

Reyes is a top-five pick overall in any fantasy league. How high you draft him depends on personal preference in how you want to build your team. Some owners wouldn’t dream of taking him before Alex Rodriguez even though Reyes has out-performed A-Rod in two of the past three years and is eight years younger.

Steals is a category that gives lots of fantasy players trouble as many of the top base stealers are killers in other categories. Reyes brings a broad base of skills along with his speed and can single-handedly solve a team’s SB problems. Don’t worry about the power categories when you draft Reyes with your first pick. You can draw even with other teams in the next two rounds while still maintaining your SB edge.

The Braves are loaded with outfield prospects. Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game. Gorkys Hernandez could be an everyday center fielder. And Jordan Schafer may be a future star. Of these three, Schafer is the closest to the majors, and bears watching in fantasy leagues in 2009.

Jordan Schafer’s 2008 season didn’t exactly start well. In fact, it was put on hold after 11 at bats: Schafer was suspended for 50 games for use of HGH. Schafer returned in June and played well in June and July for the Braves’s double-A affiliate in Mississippi, but he really turned it on in August. In 100 at bats in August, Schafer hit .320/.409/.630 with 6 homers and 7 doubles. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it also would make sense that Schafer may need a month or two to get himself back into the game, physically and mentally.

Overall, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals, which is extremely impressive for a 21-year old in double-A. He showed solid plate discipline, striking out 88 times but walking 49. And if we look closer, we can see that Schafer’s season was even more impressive.

Mississippi is generally a pitcher’s park, and it depressed homers by 18% in 2007. Schafer’s home/road splits reflect the difficult hitting environment in Mississippi: at home, Schafer hit .239/.378/.373, but on the road he hit .293/.376/.549. Schafer also hit nine of his ten homers on the road. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that Schafer’s numbers would have been even better if he played half of his games in a more neutral environment.

On the flip side, Schafer really struggled against left handed pitching, hitting only .196/.306/.299 against southpaws, while crushing righties to the tune of .309/.416/.565. Schafer is still quite young and has plenty of time to improve against lefties – whether he is able to improve against them could be the difference between whether he becomes an above-average player or a star.

Jordan Schafer’s career thus far looks quite similar to another center fielder: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s performance at double-A was eerily similar to Schafer’s (minus the suspension), as Sizemore hit .304/.373/.480 with 13 homers and 10 steals (and a 73/49 K/BB ratio) –remember, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals (and a 88/49 K/BB ratio). Sizemore’s line was more impressive – Sizemore was only 20 at the time, while Schafer was 21, and Sizemore’s strikeout rate was much better than Schafer’s. However, Sizemore – like Schafer – struggled mightily against lefties, and Sizemore – like Schafer – had a well-rounded game and scouts could easily project power in the future.

Obviously, Jordan Schafer is unlikely to become Grady Sizemore. Sizemore developed nearly perfectly, Sizemore’s season at double-A was slightly better than Schafer’s, and Sizemore was a year younger at the time (which makes a huge difference). However, the similarities between the two are not to be taken lightly, and even if Schafer doesn’t become as good as Sizemore, Schafer can still be a star.

Atlanta has never been hesitant to promote young players to the majors, and there are no major roadblocks to prevent Schafer from ascending to the big leagues. He offers a unique blend of speed and power, and has enough plate discipline that he should be an asset even without a high batting average. Schafer’s strikeout rate wasn’t terrible, but it was high enough to suggest that he could have a rather low batting average, at least in his first year or two in the majors, but he offers enough additional skills that he could be useful to you anyway.

Schafer is still young and may struggle in his first taste of the big leagues. Don’t expect him to storm into the majors like Jay Bruce did last year. However, if Schafer gets 300 at bats, he could hit 10 homers and steal 10 bases, while scoring and driving in a fair amount of runs and hitting .250 or so. There is some value in a player like that, especially a mid-season waiver-wire pickup. Schafer’s long-term star is very, very bright, but his 2009 may be somewhat of a disappointment.

This may be the single most important piece of fantasy advice I could give anyone: everything about your draft depends on the other owners – how they value players. Therefore, you should try to enter your draft with as much knowledge of how everyone else is thinking as possible.

How do you do that? Well, it depends on the league. Some of you are probably playing in leagues with people you’ve known for a long time. You know that your friend is huge Red Sox fan, and is probably going to overvalue Kevin Youkilis. You know that another friend absolutely hates the Red Sox, and would rather lose the league than have Josh Beckett on his team. Another person has a thing for no-name starters, and someone else always likes to punt saves.

The more information you have on your leaguemates’ tendencies, the better you will be able to draft. You’ll know that you’re probably not going to get Kevin Youkilis; you’ll know that one person is unlikely to steal any closers from you; you’ll know that the no-name starter you’ve had your eye on may get taken sooner than you think. All of this knowledge will help you get the most value from your draft.

But for most of you, you’ll be playing in a league with people you barely know or have never met. In these leagues, the best way to gauge what other people are thinking is to read up on fantasy baseball as much as you can. Imagine that everyone else is reading similar things as you – and forming their opinions based off of what they read. Everyone else is seeing the same list of “sleepers” and “busts,” and forming their opinions accordingly. Everyone else is reading mock drafts to see what players tend to be taken where, and they are making judgments about whom to take in what round.

Okay, now you know what everyone else is thinking. The key is then to find out how to exploit it. How does your own opinion differ from “conventional wisdom?” Do you agree about all of the potential sleepers or potential busts? Do you have a source for information – like, say, RotoGraphs – that you particularly trust? Do you have a source that you think many of your less statistically inclined leaguemates avoid? If so, use this information to find out how to extract maximum value from the “conventional wisdom.”

As with everything else in fantasy baseball, this is not a fool-proof plan. There is inevitably going to be an owner who doesn’t think along the same lines as conventional wisdom – perhaps there’s even a player or two who has read this article and is taking the same tact. However, the best way to gauge how other people value players is to see how they are being valued in general, and then adjust your own strategy accordingly.

The shortstop position is so weak in fantasy right now that Rafael Furcal, a player who has had his last two seasons marred by injury and one who enters the season carrying some seriously bad karma, is a top five player at the position.

Furcal missed most of last season with a back injury but when he was healthy he played extremely well. He had a .357/.439/.573 line in 164 plate appearances. Back injuries can be chronic but with at least four teams – A’s, Braves, Dodgers and Giants – actively pursuing Furcal in the off-season, one has to assume the medical reports are good.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Furcal notched a .300-15-63 line with 113 Runs and 37 SB. Neither Bill James nor Marcel project him to come anywhere close to that line in 2009. And in addition to a decline in his rate stats, they both see a player with serious playing time issues – not surprising for either system.

To properly value Furcal, first each fantasy player is going to have to decide how much playing time they feel comfortable assigning to him. In his nine seasons in the majors, he has topped the 150-game plateau just four times. So even if you are bullish on Furcal coming into the year, it’s just not realistic to assume 150 games.

Furcal benefited greatly from a high BABIP and HR/FB rate in his abbreviated 2008. But the rest of his batted ball profile was right around his career average. Also, his plate discipline showed marked improvement in his limited playing time last year. Furcal had his highest BB% since his rookie season and his K% was less than his BB% for the first time in his career.

There is risk surrounding Furcal but a fantasy team without risk is unlikely to be a challenger for the top spot. In a top-heavy position, Furcal offers owners their best chance to acquire high-end production at a lower cost. Last year Michael Young and Derek Jeter each delivered approximately $14 of value. I would rather have Furcal than either of those players in 2009.

Jarrod Washburn is not a guy I’ve wanted on my fantasy teams over the last few years. But this year, that could change.

Let’s be clear: Washburn is not a particularly good pitcher. However, Washburn has been remarkably consistent in his time with the Mariners: since 2006, he’s posted FIPs of 4.78, 4.77 and 4.72. His fastball averages less than 88 MPH, and he only managed to strike out 5.3 batters per nine innings last year. So why am I writing about him?

Because Washburn could have some value this year, thanks to the defense behind him.

Washburn is a fly ball pitcher who allows a lot of balls in play. He doesn’t strike many batters out, and he relies on his defense to turn batted balls into outs. Washburn’s career BABIP is .282, lower than many pitchers’ BABIPs. However, in his career Washburn has allowed 43.7% of his balls in play to be fly balls, as compared to only 36.3% grounders. By their nature, fly balls become outs more often than grounders, perhaps explaining Washburn’s relative success on balls in play.

Last year, however, Washburn’s BABIP was .309 – the highest BABIP in Washburn’s career. In fact, 2008 was the only year in his 11-year career in which his BABIP has been over .300. That’s amazing. Thing is, the high BABIP appears to be a fluke – related more to the Mariners’s poor defense last year, rather than a decline in Washburn’s skills. Washburn’s strikeout rate was actually higher last year than it was in 2005 and 2006, and was only slightly lower than his 2007 rate. He also managed to lower his walk rate from 2007, and batters made contact approximately as often as they had in the past. In other words, Washburn may not be particularly good, but he’s not getting much worse, either.

And he has reason to be optimistic for 2009. Earlier this offseason, the Mariners completed a three-way trade in which they acquired Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez – two of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Gutierrez will likely be the starting center fielder, with Ichiro in right. Left field is undecided at the moment, but the Mariners have shown a dedication to improving their defense. Washburn should benefit from regression to the mean, as his .309 BABIP from last year was an outlier in his career. But he should benefit further from an improved Mariners defense – especially outfield defense – that turns more balls in play into outs. If the Mariners defense allows Washburn to improve upon his career BABIP by 20 points, he’d have a .262 BABIP, which would lead to an ERA probably around 4.00 or 4.20.

Even with a strikeout rate around five batters per nine and a woeful offense preventing him from getting many wins, Jarrod Washburn could have some value in large mixed leagues or AL Only leagues thanks to a potentially stellar ERA and WHIP. He’s certainly no fantasy ace, but as a late round pickup in a deep league, you could do a lot worse than Jarrod Washburn.

Before your draft, you should understand what players you think are going to be undervalued by others. These are the guys you want to target. For example, if you think Jonathan Sanchez is going to be valued as approximately an 11th round pick*, and you think his talent is worthy of a 7th round pick, it’d be a mistake to draft him in the 7th round. Most likely, no one else is going to be thinking about taking him for another three or four rounds. Therefore, to get the most value out of Sanchez, you should take him in the 10th round (or 9th, if you’re worried). By doing this, you are in essence getting two 7th round picks – the one you actually choose in the 7th round, and Sanchez, who you believe was worthy of a 7th-rounder but you didn’t take until the 10th round.

This strategy also works particularly well for position players, although it’s a little more complicated. Let’s say that you think Rickie Weeks is going to be undervalued, and you’d be perfectly fine with having him as your starting second baseman. Let’s also say that for your first round pick, you are debating between Chase Utley and Jose Reyes. Who should you take? There’s not a huge difference between Utley and Reyes in overall value. But you think that Weeks is going to be undervalued, and that you can “steal” him very late in the draft. If that’s the case, it makes sense to draft Reyes in the first round, rather than Utley. If you drafted Utley, you’d be getting a fantastic player, but you’d also be negating a competitive advantage – namely, your belief in Rickie Weeks being undervalued. By drafting Reyes and saving second base for Weeks later in the draft, you have extracted maximum value.

This strategy is not without risks – it only takes one other person to value Weeks as highly as you for him to be snatched from under your fingertips. Thus, you need a backup plan, a “worst case scenario” plan. If you lose Weeks in the 12th round, are there any other second baseman who are going to be available that late that you think are somewhat undervalued? If so, then they are your backup plan. Or perhaps you’re willing to “punt” second base, and essentially hope to trade for someone or find someone on the waiver wire.

If you can’t possibly think of a backup plan, then you need to be wary of putting all of your eggs in Weeks’s basket. Yes, he may be undervalued, but if you miss out on him your team may be in deep trouble. This is something to keep in mind when thinking about sleepers. However, it’s very rare that your team won’t be able to overcome something like missing out on Rickie Weeks. The advantage of getting a player who is much better than where he is drafted almost always outweighs the risk of missing out on that player and ending up with a scrub instead.

*Note: I am not necessarily endorsing Sanchez as an 11th round pick, or a 7th round pick. I am merely using Sanchez and these numbers as an example, to demonstrate a point.