The Atlanta Braves had grandiose visions of contention when the club acquired switch-hitting force Mark Teixeira from the Rangers in July of 2007. Atlanta surrendered a king’s ransom of prospects (Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones), but the Braves were intent on making a playoff run and then attempting to sign the former Georgia Tech star to a long term-deal.

That pennant chase never materialized in either 2007 or 2008, and when it became apparent that Teixeira was intent on testing the free agent waters, the Braves were faced with the decision to either let Teixeira walk and collect compensatory draft picks or re-package him and hope for the best in another deadline deal. Atlanta decided to take the immediate help, shipping Teixeira to the Angels in exchange for relief prospect Stephen Marek and first baseman Casey Kotchman. Kotchman was once himself a top prospect, and will be under team control for a few more seasons. The question that will be asked today, however, is this: is a couple more seasons of Kotchman at first really a virtue?

A career .325/.407/.493 hitter in the minor leagues, Kotchman has long been noted for his sweet left-handed swing. The 13th overall pick in the 2001 draft had some questions regarding his power ceiling (.168 ISO), but his combination of contact ability (10.6 K%) and patience (12.3 BB%) was enough for Baseball America to rank him very high on its annual top prospect lists:

Kotchman’s BA Love (overall ranking on top 100 prospects list):

2002: 22nd
2003: 13th
2004: 15th
2005: 6th

The 6-3, 215 pounder would get a small amount of playing time for the Angels in 2004 and 2005:

2004: 128 PA, .224/.289/.276, 5.7 BB%, 9.5 K%, .052 ISO, 17.9 LD%, .248 BABIP
2005: 143 PA, .278/.352/.484, 10.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, .206 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .277 BABIP

Kotchman turned in a very mild season at hitter-friendly Salt Lake City in 2005 (.289/.372/.441), but his performance in the big leagues that year gave hope that he was finally starting to find his power stroke.

Instead of breaking out, however, Kotchman would find himself on the sidelines for almost the entirety of the 2006 season. After a very sluggish start (.152/.221/.215 in 88 PA), he was diagnosed with Mono and did not play in the majors again after May 8th.

Now 24 and running his organization’s patience a little thin, Kotchman was faced with competition from Dallas McPherson and Robb Quinlan for the starting first base job in 2007. Kotchman got the nod, and turned in what appeared to be a very promising campaign. He batted .296/.372/.467, showing the doubles-and-walks approach that made him so highly regarded. Kotchman’s .172 ISO was adequate for a first baseman, and he actually walked more than he struck out (10.7 BB%, 9.7 K%). Still, there were some caution signs that called into question the repeatability of his performance. Kotchman’s 16 LD% was pretty darned low, meaning that his BABIP should have been about .280 instead of his actual .308 mark. Adjusting for that difference, his line “should” have been .268/.344/.429. Also, his groundball rate was very high for a player at a power position (50.6 GB%).

Kotchman’s performance did indeed take a turn for the worse in 2008, as he hit a middle infielder-like .272/.328/.410 between the Angels and the Braves. His walk rate dipped considerably (6.4 BB%), though his K rate fell to a career-low 7.4%. Kotchman’s ISO was a paltry .137; only Daric Barton and Ryan Garko exhibited less sock from the first base position. Continuing a career-long trend, Kotchman hit groundballs at an alarming clip for a man playing a power-oriented position. His 52.7 groundball percentage was the 9th-highest among all qualified major league players.

For the sake of comparison, let’s take a look at the five guys ranked directly in front of and directly behind Kotchman in terms of GB%. In addition to their groundball rates, I included their baserunning scores from Bill James Online. The stat measures a player’s total adeptness on the basepaths: how well the player advances from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, and 1st to home compared to the league averages, as well as how much value the player brings in the stolen base department (only high-percentage base thieves receive credit).

Ryan Theriot 56.6 GB% (+10)
Delmon Young 55.2 GB% (-3)
Michael Bourn 53.9 GB% (+27)
Fred Lewis 53.9 GB% (+13)
Cristian Guzman 52.9 GB% (-4)
Casey Kotchman 52.7 GB% (-22)
Jacoby Ellsbury 51.7 GB% (+40)
Hunter Pence 51.7 GB% (-13)
Willy Taveras 51.5 GB% (+70)(!)
Russell Martin 51.1 GB% (+14)
Randy Winn 51.1 GB% (+41)

One of these things is not like the others. Okay, Young (whom we’ve covered before) and Pence don’t really belong either, but the overwhelming majority of the players who often chop the ball into the dirt have the speed and baserunning prowess to make it a viable strategy. Putting the ball on the ground isn’t a bad idea if you’re a burner, but when you’re a slow-footed first baseman who might not be able to beat the beer vendor down the base line, it’s probably not sound strategy to hit grounders at a rate commensurate to Jacoby Ellsbury.

Kotchman will turn 26 this offseason and still may have some development left, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that he will make good on the high hopes that prospect mavens had for him a few years back. He plays a slick first base (+13 in John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system), but an underpowered player at a premium offensive position just isn’t an asset. The average major league first baseman hit .271/.352/.463 this past season. Realistically, that’s about the best that one could hope for from Kotchman this upcoming season, and even that sort of line would entail significant improvement in his walk rate and a decrease in his number of groundballs hit. I think we may need to revise Ernest Thayer’s classic baseball poem:

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
But there is no joy in Mudville— mighty Casey has grounded out.

In 2008, Cliff Lee won the AL Cy Young by posting a 2.54 ERA and winning 22 games. Of course, the win total is somewhat out of his control – Roy Halladay won “only” 20 games despite pitching 23 more innings for a better team. But Lee’s 2.54 ERA came coupled with a 170/34 K/BB ratio in 223 innings. Lee’s rate of 1.37 walks per nine innings was the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball.

Furthermore, Lee didn’t benefit from a tremendous amount of good luck. His BABIP was .305, and he stranded 78.3% of the runners who reached base against him (a high number, yes, but remember: good pitchers are going to strand more runners than bad ones, simply because they have a better chance of getting any individual hitter out). However, Lee was fortunate to only give up 12 homers, as only 5.1% of his fly balls became homers, a number that will almost surely rise next year.

Lee posted an impressive 2.83 FIP this year. However, his xFIP – which regresses home run rate back to league average – was 3.69: still excellent, but much higher than his FIP.

Lee’s tRA and tRA* follow similar patterns: his tRA (which is not regressed) was 2.87, but his tRA* – which regresses things like home run rates – was 3.81. For those unfamiliar with tRA*, you subtract .40 to put it back on an ERA scale. So the ERA-equivalent of Lee’s tRA* was 3.41.

And 3.41 sounds like an appropriate approximation for what to expect from Lee next season. There’s little reason to think his newfound control will not continue next season (although he may not have the lowest walk rate of any starter), and the fact that he combines this impeccable control with an above-average amount of swinging strikes (7.9%) bodes quite well for him. He will almost certainly give up more homers, as the rate of fly balls becoming homers this year was unsustainably low.

Furthermore, while the Indians should be a good team, don’t get suckered in to thinking that Lee is going to win more games than a “normal” front-of-the-rotation pitcher. Yes, Lee should once again be good and yes the Indians should win a lot of games, but it’s a lot more likely that Lee will win 14-17 games, rather than 20+.

Cliff Lee is probably going to be one of the better pitchers in the American League once again, and should be valued as such. However, he is extremely unlikely to repeat his 2.54 ERA, and is also unlikely to even post an ERA under three. Lee is good, but be very careful about overvaluing him on draft day.

The trade winds continue to blow as the off-season begins to heat up. A number of minor league players were on the move this week as the Chicago Cubs sent promising, and hard-throwing, reliever Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for reliever Kevin Gregg.

Ceda was originally a highly-thought-of starting pitcher whose lack of command and control warranted a move to the bullpen, which took place midway through 2008. The 21-year-old Ceda spent the first half of the season in High-A ball where he allowed 41 hits in 55.1 innings over 12 starts (15 total appearances). He also posted rates of 4.64 BB/9 and 8.78 K/9. His Double-A relief numbers included 26 hits allowed in 30.1 innings, with rates of 4.15 BB/9 and 12.46 K/9. Ceda is still raw, and a long way from realizing his potential as a dominating closer, but he could see time in Florida in 2009 where he will showcase a high-90s fastball and mid-80s slider.

In a separate deal, the New York Yankees acquired slumping veteran OF/1B Nick Swisher and minor league reliever Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for MLB reserve infielder Wilson Betemit, Triple-A starting pitcher Jeff Marquez and Double-A reliever Jhonny Nunez. It’s impressive that New York managed to get Swisher for those three players, let alone have Chicago toss in a B-level minor league reliever. Texeira has average stuff but he has more than enough talent to be a middle reliever in Major League Baseball. At High-A ball, he allowed 28 hits in 38.2 innings and posted rates of 3.26 BB/9 and 8.38 K/9. At Double-A, he allowed 18 hits in 22.1 innings and posted rates of 2.82 BB/9 and 9.67 K/9/. Texeira may actually be the most talented of the three prospects that changed hands in this deal… which speaks less about his overall talent and more about the quality of prospects that Chicago received.

With that said, Marquez is an interesting player. Only 24, Marquez has the potential to fit in at the back end of the White Sox rotation or as a long reliever. He won 15 games in Double-A in 2007, but his overall numbers were no where near as impressive as the win total. Marquez struggled with injuries in 2008 and started 14 games at Triple-A. He allowed 93 hits in 80.2 innings and posted rates of 2.68 BB/9 and 3.68 K/9. Marquez has always been too hittable and doesn’t strike out many batters, but he’s had constant success in terms of FIP and ERA. He is basically a one-pitch pitcher with a sinker and a collection of below-average or average secondary pitches.

Nunez, 22, has already been the property of the Dodgers, the Nationals, the Yankees and now the White Sox. He is another one-pitch pitcher with a low- to mid-90s fastball, as well as a developing slider and change-up. If he sticks in the bullpen, Nunez can scrap the change-up. In High-A ball this season as a starter, the right-hander allowed 88 hits in 81 innings and posted rates of 2.33 BB/9 and 9.11 K/9. After moving up to Double-A, for both Washington and New York, Nunez allowed 25 hits in 27.1 innings and struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Chicago does love those hard-throwing relievers so Nunez could surface at the Major League level by the end of 2009 if his command continues to improve.

Andrew Miller may have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball in 2008.

Miller posted a 5.87 ERA in 107 innings, and eventually earned a ticket back to triple-A. However, Miller’s BABIP was .346 – fourth highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. His LOB% was 59.9% – second highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. While BABIP and LOB% are correlated – if you give up more hits on balls in play, you’re less likely to strand runners on base – it’s not an exact correlation. For example, Miller’s LOB% was lower than the three pitchers who posted a worse BABIP this year.

The combination of Miller’s awful BABIP and awful LOB% will probably make this next statement not terribly surprising, but interesting nonetheless:

Andrew Miller had the largest discrepancy between his FIP and ERA of any pitcher in baseball who pitched at least 100 innings.

Miller’s FIP was 4.00, while his ERA was 5.87. There is no logical reason why Andrew Miller’s FIP should “overrate” him – more likely, Miller simply experienced a large confluence of random variation, leading him to give up many more runs than he “should” have.

Miller’s 89/57 K/BB ratio was less than desirable, but the high amount of strikeouts does bode rather well for him. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 45.9%, to be exact – but his track record suggests that this number may go up, thereby reducing the number of homers he allows.

I am not suggesting that Andrew Miller is going to morph into a fantasy ace next season. However, his 5.87 ERA is probably going to completely scare away many people. You, the astute fantasy player, will understand that Miller suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck last year and is likely to see his ERA fall simply due to regression. A guy who strikes out 7.5 batters per nine and has an ERA around 4.20 is valuable, especially if he can be had very late in drafts. Furthermore, Miller has even more upside beyond that (although it’s rather unlikely that he’ll reach it in 09).

Andrew Miller is no ace (at least not yet), but he’s a heck of a lot better than his 2008 number suggest.

Ever since the Kansas City Royals drafted him 14th overall in the 2004 amateur entry draft, Billy Butler has been known for his prodigious hitting skills. The 6-1, 240 pounder started off his professional career as a third baseman, but his lack of lateral agility forced a move across the diamond to first base. Even over there, Butler is a charter member of the Jason Giambi close-your-eyes-and-fall School of First Basemen. But it’s his bat that we want to focus on.

Butler has essentially made a mockery out of minor league pitching, compiling a stunning .336/.416/.561 career line in five seasons. While demonstrating ample power (.225) and patience (13.3 BB%), Butler has also managed to strike out just 17.4% of the time, an impressive number for a guy with plenty of juice in his bat.

The 22 year-old spent parts of the 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Royals, and has compiled a .282/.334/.420 line in 838 PA. He hasn’t been quite as patient in the majors to this point (7.2 BB%), but he has managed to whiff in just 12.3% of his at-bats and has made contact within the strike zone 91.7% of the time (the league average from 2005-2007 was about 88%). Butler’s .137 ISO strikes one as pretty tame considering his minor league pedigree, and combined with the very low K rate seems to point to a contact-oriented approach that is sacrificing something in the power department. To this point in his big league career, Butler has been chopping the ball into the dirt regularly:

2006: 46.7 GB%
2007: 48.8 GB%

That 2008 figure was the 10th highest groundball rate among AL batters with at least 450 PA. Putting the ball on the grass that often is an okay strategy if you have ample speed (like Carl Crawford, who ranks directly behind Butler at 48.6%), but it’s certainly not advisable for a plodding DH-type.

While Butler has already shown that he can demolish southpaws (.340/.398/.585), he’s had his fair share of issues with same-side pitching (.256/.304/.345 vs. righties). He also showed a pronounced split in the minors, but that was more the product of his cartoonishly good performance versus lefties (.403/.491/.781 in 278 AB) than any particular difficulties with right-handers (.307/.374/.493 in 992 AB). Expect his numbers versus righties to improve significantly moving forward.

While Butler’s power hasn’t quite translated to the major league level yet, it’s important to remember that he was an absolute hitting machine in the minors, with the strength to drive the ball over the fence and the pure hitting ability to spray line drives all over the field. The Bill James Handbook is a fan, as Butler’s 2009 projection comes in at .295/.357/.460. That’s pretty useful, and as a guy who will just turn 23 in April, Butler has a ton of development time ahead of him. If he sacrifices some of that contact ability in order to put more of a charge into the ball (and lower that groundball rate), Butler could emerge as an elite hitter as soon as this upcoming season.

If you want a secret source of power for your NL-only 2009 fantasy teams look no further than Dallas McPherson. The former top third base prospect with the Los Angels Angels, whose career was beset by injuries, rejuvenated his career in 2008 by blasting 42 home runs for Triple-A Albuquerque. His ISO was a Ryan Howard-like at .344. His 2008 triple-slash numbers were .275/.380/.618.

McPherson, who profiles as a MLB first baseman, will be 28 in 2009 and in his prime. Florida has an opening at first base – unless they shift Dan Uggla over from second base or decide to go with rookie Gaby Sanchez. If McPherson comes into spring training in 2008-form, he should have every opportunity to do his best poor-man’s Howard impression (or worst-case scenario… Russell Branyan), which will include a low batting average, a ton of strikeouts… but also a healthy number of walks and power, power, and more power. Including his 11 September 2008 at-bats, McPherson has a career MLB line of .245/.298/.458 in 371 at-bats.

This kind of left-handed power does not grow on trees. At Triple-A in 2008, McPherson launched his 42 homers in 448 at-bats, while also posting rates of 14.5 BB% and 37.5 K%. An encouraging sign from this past season is that McPherson stole 14 bases – in 20 attempts – which suggests his back injuries truly are a thing of the past. The former second round draft pick still struggles against left-handed pitching and hit just .231/.320/.537 against southpaws in Triple-A. He also hits much better when he is ahead in the count (.400), than he does when he’s in the hole (.136)… suggesting his approach could still use a little work (grip-and-rip doesn’t work well with two strikes).

One of the biggest surprises of the 2008 season was Edinson Volquez, a pitcher with a ton of potential but one who had gone 3-11 in three previous cups of coffee in the majors. Volquez finished second in the National League in strikeouts (206), third in wins (17) and eighth in ERA (3.21). But a second half fade calls into question his prospects for 2009 and beyond.

After the All-Star break, Volquez had a 4.60 ERA and he allowed nine home runs in 78.1 innings, compared to five homers in 117.2 innings in the season’s first half. For the season, his FB% was 34.1 percent but as we can see from the graph below he allowed many, many more fly balls (the blue line of the chart) after the break in 2008.

Volquez is simply going to give up more fly balls and more homers than he did a season ago. And given that he plays his home games in Great American Ball Park, that’s a bad thing. In the last three years, 56 percent of the home runs hit in games played by the Reds happened at GABP. Volquez gave up just five home runs there in 2008, a mark he’s certain to exceed this season.

With plus pitches with both his fastball and his changeup, Volquez will post excellent strikeout numbers in 2009, but it is unrealistic to expect him to duplicate either his win total or his ERA from a season ago. Last year he had 18 outings in which he gave up two runs or less. Volquez will be lucky to reach half that total in 2009. He is still a solid bet for double-digit wins but his ERA should be closer to 4.00 this year. So, instead of a top-15 starter, Volquez is more likely top 30 in 2009.

The New York Mets are set at the front of the rotation with Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. However, with Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez both eligible for free agency, two other spots in the starting five may be up for grabs. Sure, the team from Queens could elect to fill one or both of those slots with splashy free agent or trade acquisitions, but the club could also take a long look at left-hander Jonathon Niese. A 7th-round selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft out of Defiance, Ohio (the same high school that produced Dodgers stud Chad Billingsley), Niese has steadily climbed the minor league ladder and reached New York for a brief cup of coffee last September. Though not overpowering, the 6-4, 215 pounder could prove to be a nice low-cost addition to the back end of the rotation.

Niese got his professional career off to a good start in a brief 24.2 inning stint with the GCL Mets (Rookie League) in the summer of 2005, striking out 24 batters and walking ten. The man the Mets pried away from a University of Cincinnati scholarship was ranked as the 9th-best prospect in the system by Baseball America following the season.

In 2006, Niese would be bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League, tossing 123.2 innings with Hagerstown. He posted a 3.52 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), striking out an impressive 9.61 batters per nine innings but also posting a hefty 4.51 BB/9. Still, the combination of K’s and groundballs (51.4 GB%) made for a solid debut for a teenager in a full-season league. Niese was bumped up to St. Lucie of the Florida State League (High-A) at the end of the year, tossing 10 frames with a 10/5 K/BB ratio. Following the season, BA would bump Niese up to the 7th-best prospect in the Mets system, noting the potential of his “big, looping 68-70 MPH curveball” but also mentioning that he can “get overcompetitive and try to strike everyone out.”

Niese would spend the entire 2007 campaign at St. Lucie, posting a 3.28 FIP in 134.1 IP. His strikeout rate dipped (7.37 K/9), but he sharpened his control by a considerable amount (2.08 BB), shedding almost two and a half walks per nine innings and compiling a 3.55 K/BB. Niese also continued to burn worms, generating groundballs at a 50.4% clip. Heading into 2008, BA listed Niese as the 8th-best farmhand for the Mets, noting that his curve had now become a “plus” offering and that he had “figured out how to throw his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball.” However, his fastball velocity and stamina were still something of an issue: he sat “91-92 MPH early in games”, but that figure tailed off toward the middle innings.

In 2008, Niese would pass through the Eastern and International Leagues before getting a quick glimpse of the majors at the end of the season. In 124.1 IP for Binghamton (AA), Niese compiled a 3.03 FIP ERA. He whiffed 7.26 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.18 BB/9. His sinking fastball continued to keep his infield D busy, with a 52 GB%. Niese was promoted to AAA New Orleans in the second half, where he would post a 4.11 FIP ERA and a 32/14 K/BB ratio in 39.2 innings. In dire need of starting pitching down the stretch, the Mets promoted Niese to the big leagues, where he made three September starts. He posted an 11/8 K/BB ratio in 14 innings with a 7.07 ERA.

Jonathon Niese will likely never be a front-of-the-rotation stalwart, but his combination of solid K rates and groundball tendencies makes him an interesting young arm. There’s always concern with a pitcher like Niese who generates those K’s with a big breaking ball and a tame fastball (89.4 MPH with the Mets): conventional wisdom says that while minor leaguers may not be able to lay off of that 74 MPH curve in the dirt, major league hitters will show more restraint and be less apt to chase. With the high-80’s heat, the big-breaking curveball and so-so control, Niese seems to have a Barry Zito starter kit at his disposal, with better ability to induce groundballs.

Wait! Don’t run! Before Zito lost several ticks on his fastball and became one of the most infamous free agent signings in major league history, he was a useful (if overhyped) mid-rotation starter for the A’s. Niese could enjoy a similar career arch, minus the unwarranted hardware and nine-figure contract.

Josh Beckett was essentially the same pitcher in 2008 that he was in 2007.

His walks, strikeouts, and homers were essentially exactly the same:

Beyond that, the percentage of balls and strikes he threw, as well as the percentage of swinging strikes he induced and pitches that were put in play were exactly the same:

And yet, Beckett’s ERA was 4.03 in 2008 and 3.27 in 2007. What gives?

Well, the first thing we can point to is that Beckett’s BABIP was .327 in 2008. Interestingly, it was above-average in 2007 as well, at .316. However, there’s no reason to think that this is anything except two straight seasons of bad luck – the Red Sox had fantastic defenses during both of these seasons, and Beckett’s career BABIP is .301. There’s no reason to think that Beckett will post a higher-than-usual BABIP in 2009. Still, this doesn’t explain Beckett’s higher ERA in 08 than 07.

Beckett stranded slightly less in 08 (71.3%) than he did in 07 (75.2%), but this wasn’t a huge change. He did allow a higher opponent’s OPS with runners in scoring position in 08 than 07 – in 08 it was .639, while in 07 it was .550.

In fact, with RISP in 2008, Beckett walked hitters at twice the rate that he did in 07. Beckett also allowed more extra base hits with runners in scoring position in 08 than he did in 07. However, he still struck batters out at the same rate in every situation in both years.

Beckett’s biggest problem in 2008 (as well as 2007, although to a lesser extent) was his home ballpark. Beckett posted a 5.65 ERA at home in 2008, compared to a 2.85 ERA on the road. In 2007, his home ERA was 4.17, and his road ERA was 2.18. Indeed, Fenway is a hitter’s park, and Beckett’s struggles at home shouldn’t be ignored by fantasy owners. However, Beckett is still such a good pitcher that it’s unlikely that his ERA will be over 5 at home once again. That said, Beckett has shown to be a much better fantasy bet in games outside of Fenway Park.

In short, Josh Beckett’s fundamental ability to pitch seems not to have changed, at all, from 2007 to 2008. He had approximately the same amount of walks and same amount of strikeouts. He threw the same percentage of balls and induced the same percentage of swinging strikes. He threw his fastball at the same speed, and didn’t alter his repertoire noticeably.

Rather, the main changes were in areas that were out of Beckett’s control. His BABIP was higher in 08; his LOB% was lower in 08; he allowed a great proportion of his walks and extra-base hits in situations when runners were in scoring position. There’s no reason to think that these things are anything but random variation, given that ALL of Beckett’s underlying fundamentals didn’t change.

What does this mean for 2009? Well, assuming Beckett once again pitches as he did in 2007 and 2008, his ERA is very likely to decrease. The Red Sox will once again have an excellent defense, and it’s likely that Beckett’s BABIP will regress, after having been well-above-average during both 2007 and 2008. Beckett’s FIP during the last two years was 3.08 and 3.24, respectively; there’s no reason to think that Beckett cannot post an ERA under 3.50 – and perhaps even under 3.30 – in 2009.

Beckett may struggle in Fenway, and you might consider benching him against tougher opponents at home. However, his home ERA probably won’t be over 5 again, and he’s shown the ability to absolutely dominate outside of Fenway. His low ERA, coupled with over eight strikeouts per nine innings, less than two walks per nine, as well as one of the league’s best offenses and defenses, makes Josh Beckett a true fantasy ace.

After playing most of the 2007 season with a knee injury, Jason Bay saw his average draft position fall to 112.88 in 2008, according to Sportsline.com. And then Bay turned around and put up a top-25 hitting season, similar to what he did when healthy in 2005 and 2006. One of the steals of the 2008 draft, Bay will go much sooner than the 11th or 12th round this year.

Most of Bay’s numbers last year matched his career averages. The area that stands out is his FB%, with his numbers showing a steady increase the past few seasons. In 2005, it was 40.6 percent and by 2008 he posted a 46.0 percent flyball rate. Meanwhile, his HR/FB have fluctuated between 11.4 percent in his injury-plagued 2007 season to 18.8 percent in 2006. Last year it was 15 percent, which was below his career rate of 16.4 percent.

Bay hit well after his deadline deal to Boston, as he posted an .897 OPS after the trade. He even hit more flyballs (47.8 percent after the trade) but it resulted in fewer home runs. Bay had nine homers after the deal and six of those came on the road, which suggests that perhaps he had some issues with the Green Monster. It’s more likely a sample size issue and I think fantasy players should not lower their home run projections for him in any meaningful way.

Count on a healthy Bay to provide a .290-30-100 line with 100 runs and 10 steals. And that should be easily good enough to be a top-30 hitter and one of the top 15 outfielders. And if he continues to hit more flyballs and adapts to the Green Monster, a 35-40 HR season is not out of the question.