One of the game’s top closers in 2005 and 2006, B.J. Ryan came down with an elbow injury in 2007 that required Tommy John surgery. Ryan was back pitching in 2008 and after a month regained his closer’s job. He posted a solid season in his first year back but was not quite the pitcher he was before the surgery.

None of Ryan’s ratios matched what he did in the two years prior to the operation. The most significant drop came in his BB/9. Command was a problem for him since entering the majors in 1999. But Ryan nevertheless saw his BB/9 fall four consecutive years, bottoming out at a nifty 2.49 in 2006. But that number was 4.34 last year.

His Zone% fell from 56.9 percent to in 2006 to 52.1 percent and his F-Strike% dropped from 67.8 percent to 59.0 percent. Those numbers were far from elite for relievers in 2006 and fell to poor levels last year.

Ryan had a nearly two-mph drop in velocity to go along with his command problems, but batters were unable to take advantage. His BABIP was .285 despite a 19.4 percent line drive rate. And while he did give up a fair amount of fly balls (41.9%), batters hit only 6.2 percent of those for home runs. This good fortune resulted in an ERA (2.95) noticeably lower than his FIP (3.68).

The positives are that Ryan was able to come back so soon after surgery and pitch so well with diminished stuff. His velocity was the same in September that it was in April. But if Ryan is going to improve in 2009, he is going to have to reduce his walk rate as it is unlikely that he will be as lucky on batted balls next year as he was in 2008.

Ryan faces no serious competition for the team’s closer role and the $20 million owed him over the next two seasons makes it unlikely he would be dealt to a team and converted into a setup man. He is a safe bet for 30-plus saves and he remains a top strikeout artist, as his 58 strikeouts in 58 innings last year showed.

But ultimately his value will be determined via his WHIP and ERA. Ryan is a high-end number-two closer in a 12-team league, with the potential to do more if he can get his walks under control. But expecting him to be an elite closer again on draft day is a risky move.

When All-Star catcher Victor Martinez went down due to injury, the Cleveland Indians figured to suffer a significant loss of production behind the plate. Instead, a former trade throw-in stepped to the fore and bashed 21 home runs, third-most among all backstops. Kelly Shoppach, a long-time Red Sox prospect picked up in the Andy Marte/Coco Crisp deal in January of 2006, made the most of his first opportunity at substantial major league playing time. While Marte continued to play his way into oblivion (-1.81 WPA/LI), Shoppach emerged as an important cog in Cleveland’s offense.

The former Baylor star batted .261/.348/.517, good for a 1.24 WPA/LI that ranked 7th among catchers. Shoppach’s .256 Isolated Power (ISO) topped his position by a healthy margin, besting Colorado’s Chris Ianetta by 16 points, and ranked 14th among all hitters with at least 400 PA.

While Shoppach has clearly proven that he possesses as much power as any player behind the dish, there are several reasons to expect a downturn in his performance, should he again see significant playing time in Cleveland or elsewhere.

Shoppach whiffs. A lot. In fact, only Three True Outcomes hero Jack Cust went down via strike three more often than Shoppach, who tied D-Backs third baseman Mark Reynolds with an ignoble 37.8 K%. As one would expect from such a high strikeout rate, Shoppach has significant issues making contact. His 64% contact rate ranked ahead of only Reynolds among all batters with at least 400 PA. Shoppach made contact with just 73.4% of pitches swung at within the strike zone, 3rd-worst among hitters (you guessed it, Reynolds and Cust rank 1st and 2nd). It’s not as though he’s a hacking mess at the plate (Shoppach drew walks at a 9.3% clip in 2008 and his O-Swing% was an average 25.6%), but chances are, he’ll either hit the ball across state lines or miss it entirely.

With a player like Shoppach who strike out so frequently, the ball is being put in play less often than it would be for a hitter with a more average contact rate. As such, hitters with high K rates are more prone to fluctuation in their Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Fewer opportunities for the ball to be put in play means a higher degree of variability, due to the smaller sample size.

Given Shoppach’s 18.6 Line Drive rate (LD%), we would expect his BABIP to come in around .306 (expected BABIP is LD% + .120, so .186 + .120 = .306). Shoppach’s actual BABIP? .359. That number is likely to tumble considerably in 2009. Players who strike out nearly 40% of the time just don’t hit .261 for any sustained length of time.

There’s no doubt that Kelly Shoppach can mash with the best of them behind the plate. However, his colossal K rate makes him a target for plenty of regression this upcoming season. If we adjust for his line drive rate and subtract those extra 53 points of average (the difference between his .359 BABIP and his .306 expected BABIP), Shoppach’s batting line is pared down to .208/.295/.464. The 28 year-old is a valuable player when he hits .260, but that’s just not going to continue. Barring huge gains in the contact department, Shoppach could be appealing to Pedro Cerrano’s shrine on a regular basis, deploring the existence of those darned curveballs.

Would you believe that 2008 was Dave Bush’s worst season?

On the surface, this might not seem so. After all, Bush posted the best ERA of his career – 4.18 in 185 innings – along with a nice 1.18 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. Certainly not the numbers of a fantasy ace, but well worth having on your team (considering that you probably got him for free from the waiver wire).

However, Bush was worse last year than he had been in the past, even though he had posted higher ERAs in the past. Let me explain.

Before 2008, Bush posted ERAs of 4.49, 4.41, and 5.12 from 2005-2007. However, his FIP was better than his ERA in 2006 and 2007, and Bush looked like the type of player who was primed for a breakout – although he didn’t punch many batters out, he limited his walks and got a fair share of grounders. Bush was hampered by a high HR/FB rate, a high BABIP (.327 in 2007) and a low LOB%.

And then, in 2008, the breakout came. Of course, it wasn’t really a “breakout” in the sense of Bush becoming a frontline starter, but rather Bush becoming a decent starter – a breakout for him. But even though Bush posted solid numbers in 2008, it appears that his “breakout” is actually more luck – just good luck, this time.

Dave Bush’s .245 BABIP was the lowest of any pitcher who pitched at least 150 innings this year. For those of you who are still skeptical of a pitcher’s inability to control BABIP, Bush is a perfect example: his BABIP was .327 just a year ago, and he had some people wondering whether he was simply more “hittable” because he didn’t have great stuff. And yet this year, he had the lowest BABIP of any starter in the game.

Needless to say, this BABIP will almost certainly regress in 2009, and Bush will allow more hits as a result.

However, the other factors that caused optimism about Bush – namely, his ground ball rate and his walk rate – got worse in 2008. Bush allowed more than 40% of his balls in play to be fly balls for the first time in his career (excluding his short stint in 2004). Fly balls left the yard at approximately a league average rate (12% of his fly balls became homers), but Bush allowed a whopping 23 homers in only 168 innings due to the sheer number of fly balls that he surrendered.

Furthermore, his control, which had been one of his biggest strengths, declined. After walking 1.91, 1.63, and 2.13 hitters per nine innings from 2005 through 2007, Bush allowed 2.38 walks in 2008. This may not seem like a big increase, but it’s a big deal for a guy like Bush, who doesn’t get many strikeouts and relies on his defense. The more free passes a low-strikeout pitcher allows, the worse he is going to be.

Finally, using some of the handy stats over at Stat Corner, we can see that Bush induced fewer swinging strikes in 2008 (7.5%) than he did in 06 and 07 (8.7% and 9.1%, respectively). This is not a good sign in and of itself, but it’s even worse when coupled with a rise in his walks. Additionally, Bush threw far more balls in 2008 (36.2% of his pitches were out of the strike zone) than he did in 06 and 07 (33.4% and 34.1%, respectively). That doesn’t bode well at all.

Dave Bush is likely to be worse – perhaps a lot worse – next season than he was in 2008. Let someone else make the mistake of overvaluing him on draft day.

Asdrubal Cabrera got the chance to play every day for the Indians down the stretch in 2007 and showed enough to merit the full-time second base job for the club in 2008. And then he was terrible. Before being sent to Triple-A in early June, Cabrera posted a .184/.282/.247 line in 185 plate appearances.

But he found his stroke at Buffalo, where he hit for both average and power, and soon found himself back in the majors. Cabrera continued to hit after his recall, posting a .320/.398/.464 line in his final 233 plate appearances. In September alone, he had 15 runs, 22 RBIs and a .416 average, thanks to a .448 BABIP.

So, should fantasy owners expect Cabrera to more closely resemble the player who struggled mightily in the first half or the one who outperformed Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler and Brian Roberts in the second half?

Upon his recall, Cabrera made more contact and hit the ball with more authority. His K% was 25.3 percent before being sent down and was 19.1 percent in his second stint in the majors in 2008. His isolated slugging was .063 before the demotion and .144 after the recall. How do these numbers compare with Cabrera’s minor league stats?

Since being acquired from the Mariners via trade in mid 2006, here are Cabrera’s minor league numbers:

	AB	BA	BABIP	SLG	ISO	K%
AA	368	.310	.333	.454	.144	11.4
AAA	369	.293	.353	.396	.103	19.5

If we break down the numbers even further, we see Cabrera struggled in his first exposure to Triple-A (.263/.293/.337) as a 20-year old, but did quite well there last season (.326/.375/.475).

It should come as no surprise that Cabrera struggled in the majors as a 22-year old in the beginning of last season. The encouraging thing is that he got straightened out in the minors and came back to Cleveland and did very well.

Even though Cabrera’s minor league BABIPs are very good, it’s unrealistic to expect him to post the .365 BABIP that he did in the second half of 2008. That figure would have placed him fifth in the majors in the category. However, his other numbers are not out of line with what he has done in the minors and are reasonable numbers to maintain in the majors.

From the small samples that we have, Cabrera is more likely to post a K% under 20 percent than he is to be above 25 percent. And an isolated slugging mark in the vicinity of .140 is not out of the question. He did that in Double-A in 2007 and in Triple-A (.149) in 2008.

The Bill James projection (.277-10-62 with 84 runs and 11 steals) seems very reasonable, although I might go for a little higher average and a few less steals. Either way, that’s a very similar, although slightly superior, season to what Tampa Bay’s Akinori Iwamura put up in 2008.

Cabrera will be an afterthought on Draft Day in most mixed leagues next season. But by the end of the season he will be on an active roster in most leagues. He is definitely someone to consider in the final rounds of your draft.

In a season rife with unexpected twists and turns, Ryan Dempster’s transformation from sufficient reliever to rotation stalwart might have been the biggest surprise. Prior to 2008, Dempster had not made more than twenty starts since his last season in Cincinnati (2003), and the results were disastrous back then: A 6.54 ERA, 134 hits and 14 home runs surrendered in 115.2 innings pitched. Dempster’s lowest Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) as a starter was 4.35, all the way back in 2000 as a member of the Florida Marlins. And, to top it all off, Dempster had posted a FIP ERA over four as a reliever for the Cubs over the 2006 and 2007 seasons combined, and failed to crack a 2/1 K/BB ratio in any of his four seasons in the Chicago bullpen between 2004 and 2007.

Despite the laundry list of reasons as to why “Dempster the starter” seemed like a dubious proposition, the Cubs went ahead with the plan, and were rewarded with one of the better pitching performances in the National League. In 206.2 innings, Dempster struck out 8.14 batters per nine innings, and kept his walks at an adequate level (3.31 BB/9), something he has struggled to do in the past (career BB/9 of 4.47). Dempster’s 2.46 K/BB ratio was the highest of his career, and was actually only the second time that he has surpassed that 2/1 mark (2000 being the other year).

However, his 2.96 ERA overstates his case by about a half a run, as Dempster’s FIP ERA was 3.41. That dichotomy is the product of a low home run/flyball rate (HR/FB%) of 7.7%. HR/FB rates tend to stabilize around 11-12% for pitchers, so expect that number to regress going forward. As that HR/FB rate ticks up, so will Dempster’s 0.61 HR/9.

Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we can get a more accurate read on Dempster’s performance. XFIP is perhaps the best way to gauge of a pitcher’s controllable skills, as it uses strikeouts, walks and an average HR/FB rate to calculate ERA. By doing so, XFIP eliminates lucky or unlucky performances on flyballs. So, Dempster’s auspicious HR/FB rate is regressed, giving us a better indication of his actual performance. If we adjust for the home run luck, Dempster’s XFIP ERA comes in at 3.94. That figure ranked 11th among NL starters.

Is Dempster’s 2008 showing a sign of things to come, or just an aberrant, blip-on-the-radar season? As we have seen, Dempster’s performance was quite good, but not sub-three ERA good. But can Dempster be expected to keep an ERA in the high three’s to low four’s during the course of his new four-year, $52 million contract?

Ordinarily, one would have every reason to be highly skeptical of a 31 year-old with a mild track record of success, a pitcher who last performed well in the rotation at the advent of the new millennium. However, Dempster does have some things working for him on a scouting level, as his repertoire played differently in the starting five than it did out of the bullpen.

Using Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X blog, we can compare Dempster’s stuff out of the ‘pen in 2007 to what he threw as a starter in 2008.

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

2007

Fastball: -7.21 X, 8.15 Z
Slider: 0.16 X, 0.81 Z
Changeup: -7.13 X, 5.71 Z

Dempster’s fastball had a good deal of tailing movement in on right-handers (-7.21 X), but his slider and changeup weren’t especially reliable. His slider did not register much horizontal break away from righties. His changeup did a nice job of mirroring his fastball in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical movement between the two pitches was just 2.44 inches. That’s not a whole lot, especially considering that his fastball (92 MPH) and change (83.1) had less than a 9 MPH dichotomy in velocity.

2008

Fastball: -6.72 X, 8.26 Z
Slider: 1.23 X, 0.08 Z
Changeup: -6.95 X, 3.75 Z

Dempster’s fastball registered similar horizontal and vertical break, but the quality of his secondary pitches increased. Dempster’s slider broke over an inch more away from righties this past season, while also showing a little more dropping action in the zone. Dempster’s changeup continued to mirror his heater in terms of horizontal movement, but the difference in vertical break between the two pitches improved. Dempster’s change dropped in the zone 4.51 inches more than his fastball did, almost doubling the difference from 2007. When commentators talk about a pitcher “pulling the string” on a changeup, this is what they are referring to. With similar horizontal break but a pronounced drop in vertical movement, hitters gear up for the fastball, get the changeup, and swing over top of the pitch.

Will Dempster’s improved secondary stuff allow him to keep most of the gains that he made during the 2008 season? The Marcel projection system seems to think so, forecasting Dempster for a 3.70 ERA, 7.77 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9 in 2009. It’s important to keep in mind that Dempster outperformed his peripherals this past season, and we would expect some regression in his ERA even if he repeated his strikeout and walk levels. If Dempster keeps his walk rate in check and continues to display a nasty slider/changeup combo, he could meet Marcel’s projection.

Outfielder Jeremy Hermida was the object of scouting and sabermetric admiration as his climbed up the Florida Marlins’ farm system. With a silky-smooth left-handed swing and tremendous plate discipline, Hermida frequently adorned top prospect lists from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. In fact, BA ranked the 6-3, 210 pounder as the 4th-best prospect in the minors in 2006, with BP valuing him as the 2nd-best talent down on the farm. His .284/.398/.436 career minor league line left something to be desired in the power department, but Hermida appeared to answer those questions with a monster .293/.457/.518 showing at AA Carolina in 2005.

Fresh off of smoking the Southern League, Hermida would have a scalding cup of coffee with the Marlins to end the ’05 season, batting .293/.383/.634 in 47 PA. Baseball Prospectus 2006 was smitten, writing that “if he stops he is he’s going to be a fine player, but if he develops along the normal curve he could be Bondsian.” Talk about high praise.

Despite the hype, 2006 would actually turn out to be something of a lost season for Hermida. He battled a hip flexor injury and never seemed fully healthy, batting just .251/.332/.368 in 348 PA. Hermida drew walks at a 9.7% clip, but without power (.117 Isolated Power) and with a rather high strikeout rate (22.8 K%). Still, he was just 22 years of age, and figured to improve significantly once he was healed up.

Hermida’s 2007 campaign went far more smoothly, as he hit a robust .296/.369/.501. His ISO jumped all the way up to .205, and he retained a solid walk rate, drawing a free pass 9.9% of the time. However, Hermida’s K rate did climb to 24.5%, and his .356 BABIP was pretty high. Given Hermida’s line drive rate (20.7%), we would have expected his BABIP to come in around .327 (the formula for expected BABIP is LD% + .120; .207 + .120= .327). If we take that into account, his line “should” have been about .267/.340/.472. That took some of the air out of Hermida’s season, but that still served as a significant improvement over the previous year’s work.

As a 24 year old in 2008, Hermida figured to build upon his ’07 showing, perhaps making good on the promise that his former top prospect status entailed. Instead, he took a step backward. Hermida wasn’t terrible, mind you, but his .249/.323/.406 line was roundly mediocre. The drop in his batting average was expected (when you whiff that often, you’re not going to hit .300 for an extended period of time), but his walk rate dipped to 8.7% and his ISO fell down to .157, basically splitting the difference between his punchless 2006 and powerful 2007. His already-high strikeout rate climbed to 27.5% as well.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of Hermida’s down year was the continued erosion of his once-pristine strike-zone judgment. Noted for his take-and-rake style in the minors, Hermida has progressively become more liberal in terms of chasing bad balls out of the strike zone:

Hermida’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008

2006: 19%
2007: 22.2%
2008: 27.8%

In addition to chasing more pitches out of the zone, Hermida also swung at fewer strikes this past season. His Z-Swing% dipped from 64.2% in 2007 to 59.6% in 2008. As he is getting older, Hermida is swinging at more balls and taking more strikes. That’s an inauspicious combination.

So, just what sort of player is Jeremy Hermida? Is he the Brian Giles clone that his minor league dossier suggests, or is he going to continue to disappoint? Baseball Prospectus 2008 offered an interesting (and insidious) possible career path for Hermida. Per PECOTA, Hermida’s most comparable player is Ben Grieve. For those of you who don’t remember, Grieve was a another big, left-handed batter who received plenty of prospect love for his patient approach. However, Grieve’s career quickly faded to black after he won the 1998 AL Rookie of the Year Award, as prohibitively high strikeout rates and mid-range power got the best of him. There are a number of similarities between Hermida and Grieve:

Jeremy Hermida

HT: 6-3 WT: 210
Career Minor League Line: .284/.398/.436, 18.5 BB%, 22K%, .152 ISO
Major League Line: .267/.342/.436, 9.5 BB%, 25.4 K%, .170 ISO

Ben Grieve

HT: 6-4 WT: 230
Career Minor League Line: .302/.407/.484, 16.9BB%, 19.8K%, .182 ISO
Major League Line: .269/.367/.442, 12.7 BB%, 24.4K%, .173 ISO

I know that it’s probably a little unfair to compare Hermida (25 in January) and his major league line thus far to Grieve’s entire line of work in the big leagues, but Grieve’s career was essentially over by the time he was 26.

None of this is to say that Hermida’s career is doomed; this is just one possible path for his development. Still, there are a lot of striking similarities between the two players, and the Marcel projection system does not foresee much of any improvement, forecasting a mild .271/.348/.440 line for 2009. Fantasy owners will want to use caution regarding Hermida, lest they suffer a Griev(e)ous fate as another top prospect falls short of expectations.

It was a tale of two halves for Roy Oswalt in 2008. Before the All-Star break, Oswalt suffered from injuries (strained abductor muscle, hip injury) and a bad case of gopheritis. But in the second half he was one of the top pitchers in baseball. Oswalt was 7-8 with a 4.56 ERA with 18 HRs in 116.1 IP in the first half. But he was 10-2 with a 2.24 ERA with five HRs in 92.1 IP after the break.

Oswalt reversed a three-year trend of declining K/9 rates, posting a 7.12 rate. Additionally, his BB/9 and WHIP rates were nearly identical to his career rates. On the flip side, Oswalt posted the second-highest HR/FB rate of his career at 12.7 percent. The only thing that saved him was that he allowed the fewest fly balls of his career. Oswalt’s 29.2 percent FB% ranked 14th in the majors last season.

What can we expect in 2009? Oswalt’s Marcel projection, which regresses to the mean and uses an age factor, has him failing to reach 200 innings for the first time since his injury-plagued 2003, a 3.65 ERA, which would be the highest mark of his career, and the fewest strikeouts of the last five seasons. This seems a tad pessimistic.

Once Oswalt got over his injury problems, he was a completely different pitcher. The only way his Marcel projection makes sense is if Oswalt battles injuries again throughout the year, certainly a possibility given his injury history. He has endured wrist, groin, foot and hip injuries (among others) throughout his career. But he has also topped 30 starts in six of his seven full seasons in the majors.

His velocity has been unchanged the past few years and he is one of the top groundball pitchers in the majors. Oswalt’s 2008 HR rate seems like an injury-related thing, especially since he allowed 0.49 HR/9 when he was healthy after the break. Oswalt’s upside is as a top-10 pitcher. Because of his injury history, one should downgrade him somewhat. But nowhere near where his Marcel projection rates him.

The 2008 Toronto Blue Jays just might have been the strongest fourth-place team in major league history. Toiling in the brutally competitive AL East, Toronto compiled a +104 run differential due to the club’s outstanding run prevention. While strong defense deserves some of the credit (the Jays ranked 3rd in the majors in Defensive Efficiency), the Blue Jays starters were plenty effective, compiling a league-best 3.72 ERA as a staff. However, that group will look drastically different in 2009, with Shaun Marcum falling victim to Tommy John Surgery, Dustin McGowan recovering from a shoulder operation and A.J. Burnett likely headed greener pastures courtesy of a lavish free agent payday.

One of the guys who will be back (along with that Halladay fellow) is right-hander Jesse Litsch. A 24th-round draft pick out of South Florida Community College in 2004, Litsch quickly ascended to the majors following a minor league career that showcased polish, if not power (3.41 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 1.58 BB/9).

Reaching Toronto at the age of 22 in 2007, Litsch made 20 starts for the Jays. In 111 innings pitched, Litsch posted a 3.81 ERA. However, that number overstated his performance. Litsch’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA) was a more tame 5.14. He displayed relatively good command (2.92 BB/9) and kept the ball on the ground (48.1 GB%), but Litsch just didn’t miss any bats, with only 4.05 K/9. That strikeout rate was the 11th-lowest among starters throwing at least 100 innings. A quick look at the other names near the bottom of the whiff list (including Steve Trachsel and Livan Hernandez) shows that it doesn’t pay to garner so few swings and misses.

In 2008, Litsch would once again outperform his peripherals, compiling a 3.58 ERA in 176 innings. The 6-1, 175 pounder benefitted from a combination of good luck and stellar defensive play behind him, posting a below-average .285 BABIP. While Litsch was fortunate to post such a low ERA, his rates did improve. His abhorrent strikeout rate crept up to 5.06 per nine innings (still quite low, but it’s something) and he issued just 1.99 BB/9. With the slightly improved K rate, sharp command and more work for his infield D (48.5 GB%), Litsch’s FIP ERA was a legitimately useful 4.29.

What makes Litsch so interesting is his “kitchen sink” approach to pitching. You name a pitch, and odds are, he throws it. Litsch used a traditional fastball less than any other pitcher in baseball this past season, save for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Litsch’s 89.9 MPH heater was utilized just 23.9% of the time, and that was actually up from his 18.9% fastball usage in 2007. His bread-and-butter offering is an 86 MPH cutter, used 43.4% of the time. Litsch also feeds batters a steady serving of 82 MPH sliders (11.4%), 77 MPH curves (11.9%) and 81 MPH changeups (9.4%). None of those pitches are dominating, but facing a pitcher with such a diversified repertoire has to be challenging.

Batters appeared to find Litsch’s stuff a little harder to hit in 2008. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from a below-average 19.6% in ’07 to 25.5% in 2008. That bodes well for his long-term prospects. As Eric Seidman discovered, there is a statistically significant relationship between O-Swing% and BB/9, WHIP, ERA, and FIP ERA.

Both the Bill James and Marcel projection systems see some regression coming to Litsch’s ERA in 2009, with James predicting a 4.06 mark and Marcel forecasting a 3.87 showing. Both systems have Litsch’s projected FIP ERA at 4.43.

Jesse Litsch will never be a dominant starter, as his low strikeout rate will often keep him at the caprices of the defense behind him. Luckily, the leather behind Litsch is solid right now. That, coupled with groundball tendencies and strong control, should be enough for the 24 year-old to post another season worthy of fantasy consideration.

Padres prospect Chase Headley made his major league debut in 2008, hitting .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at bats. What can we expect in 2009?

Headley struck out in 31% of his at bats with the Padres – a lofty number for a guy who only hit nine homers. In the minor leagues Headley struck out a lot as well – he Ked in 25% of his at bats in triple-A this year, and 26% of his at bats in double-A in 2007. Furthermore, Headley will be 25 years old in May; he’s young, but he’s not that young. Thus, while it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Headley in the strikeout department, all signs suggest that he will strike out a lot next year, too.

All of those strikeouts will keep his batting average down, but at least Headley hits the ball hard when he does make contact. His 24.7% line drive percentage supports his .369 BABIP; furthermore, his minor league track record suggests that Headley will continue to his a lot of line drives and have a high BABIP: his LD% in triple-A this year was 21.9%, and in double-A last year it was 23.8%.

Thus, while the high amount of strikeouts prevent Headley from having a high batting average, his line-drive percentage should keep his BA from falling too low. The .269 average he posted in 2008 seems like a reasonable approximation of what to expect going forward – perhaps Headley will strike out a little less often in the future, but this may be negated by a (somewhat small) drop in his LD%, as few hitters can sustain an LD% over 24%.

Headley displayed tremendous power over the last two seasons in the minors, slugging .576 in double-A in 2007 and following it up with a .556 SLG in triple-A in 2008. However, Headley’s isolated power was not as impressive as you might expect (.249 and .251); rather, it seems that while Headley did indeed hit for a lot of power, much of his high SLG was inflated by a high batting average – and remember, that high batting average is unlikely to continue in the majors.

Thus, while Headley does possess power, his minor league track record may overstate just how much power he has. Furthermore, Headley plays for the San Diego Padres, which means that he has to play half of his home games in PETCO Park. PETCO, as you probably know, absolutely kills homers, hurts doubles, is relatively neutral on singles, and inflates triples. Judging from what we know about Headley, PETCO seems like it will hurt him even more than it might hurt another player – Headley won’t put too many balls in play, and will lose a tremendous amount of homers (and doubles, not that fantasy players care too much about them) thanks to his home park.

Sure enough, in his half-season with the Padres in 2008, Headley hit .301/.361/.470 with five homers on the road, but only .230/.307/.358 with four homers at home. Headley might be worth platooning if you are able to couple him with another decent 3B; however, that may be a waste of a valuable roster spot that would be better served by simply playing Headley’s platoon partner full-time.

If there’s one area in which Headley could improve, it’s by hitting more fly balls. Only 37% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008 – if he can up this number, he should be able to hit more homers. However, in the minors his fly ball rate fluctuated between 39% and 44%, suggesting that while Headley may be able to improve somewhat, it will take a dramatic improvement to get his fly ball rate up to 50% or so.

Finally, it looks like Headley is entrenched in left field, unless the Padres move Kevin Kouzmanoff. In fantasy baseball, Chase Headley the outfielder is even less valuable than Chase Headley the third baseman. If Headley regains (or retains) third base eligibility in your league, he will have slightly more value.

Chase Headley is a solid player, but don’t get too excited about him. He doesn’t appear to have that much power in the first place, and what power he does have is going to be sapped by PETCO Park. He’s worth drafting, but only a late-round flier. Let someone else overvalue him.

According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, David Wright is one of five hitters to be among the top 12 batters in both 2007 and 2008. Wright finished fourth in dollar value both seasons. The only player better is Hanley Ramirez, who finished second in both years. Should Wright be the second player picked in your fantasy draft next season?

In 2007, Wright had a .362 BABIP. He was able to retain his elite status in 2008 despite a 34-point drop in BABIP. He accomplished this because no one had a monster year like Alex Rodriguez did in 2007 and because there was an across the board drop in fantasy numbers. According to RotoTimes, each one of the top 12 fantasy batters had a lower dollar value in 2008 than their counterparts did in 2007.

Wright was crucified because of his lack of “clutch” hitting in 2008. And a quick review of the numbers shows he did not produce the same stats with men on base or runners in scoring position. Last year with men on base, Wright had a .906 OPS compared to a 1.064 mark the year before. And with RISP Wright’s OPS was .703 last year compared to .976 in 2007.

But Wright compensated for that drop by having more opportunities in both categories. In 2007 he had 204 plate appearances with RISP and 328 with men on base. In 2008, those numbers were 229 and 375, respectively. Rate wise, he was less efficient but in raw numbers, which is what fantasy players crave, he was more productive. He had a 17-point jump in RBIs from 2007 to 2008. Wright posted 18 more RBIs with men on base in 2008 than in 2007.

What does this mean for 2009? Last year, none of Wright’s peripherals changed in any meaningful way. He showed a slight increase in slugging due to tiny increases in both FB% (37.5 to 38.2) and HR/FB (16.1 to 16.7). And his BB% and K% were nearly identical. Which means Wright is one of the safest picks around.

The top half of the first round of any fantasy draft is about minimizing risk. That’s why no smart players took Albert Pujols in the first six picks last year. Not because there were doubts about Pujols and his skills, but because there were rumors that he was not going to play a full season. There simply was too much risk to take Pujols that high when equally productive players with no injury concerns were available.

That Pujols played the whole season and was the top fantasy player in 2008 is virtually irrelevant. The risk was too great. With David Wright, we have a player whose risk is extremely low. He has no health concerns, he has been both remarkably productive and consistent all while playing a key position. And Wright is entering the prime of his career.

Any draft where he is not one of the top four picks taken is not a league with serious players. Personal preference can dictate the order of the top four players but Wright’s name simply has to be there. The second overall pick is a safe spot for Wright and you could even justify taking him first if you are concerned about Hanley Ramiez losing steals if/when he drops lower in the batting order.