If you like your baseball careers unpredictable, than you will love Jose Guillen. The Pirates made him a full-time starter at the age of 21 and he looked overmatched. And then he regressed. After several years of irrelevance, Guillen bounced back with one of the most improbable years ever in 2003 when he put up an OPS+ of 142. Since then he’s posted three fairly productive seasons, one injury-marred campaign and last year’s mediocre effort.

In 2008, Guillen had three months where he batted .308 or better and three months where he hit .212 or worse. He had a 42-game stretch where he batted .176/.234/.294 but then rebounded to post an .865 OPS in his final 108 plate appearances.

The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is Guillen’s refusal to take many walks. Last year his BB% was a dismal 3.7 percent, which amazingly only tied him for the seventh-lowest mark in the majors. It was the lowest rate in his career since his age 22 season in 1998. Not surprisingly, Guillen ranked sixth in MLB in F-Strike% (63.8%) and 24th in O-Swing % (31.6%).

But despite all those flaws, Guillen is still someone to keep tabs on during your draft. Even with last year’s disappointing numbers, he still put up 20 home runs and 97 RBIs. In his last five full seasons, Guillen has averaged 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Those numbers alone make him a bottom-of-your-roster type guy.

The key for Guillen is his batting average. Last year his fantasy value was dragged down by his .264 average. But in 2007 he hit .290 and when you recall that he rarely walks, that becomes an AB-heavy .290, which helped make him a $20 player.

The perception is that Guillen is old and that he’s a malcontent. But while he’s been around forever, next year will be his age 33 season. And while he has worn out his welcome in several cities, managers will keep writing him in the lineup as long as he’s productive.

Guillen is an ideal late round pick. If his average rebounds (last year he had a 38-point BABIP drop) he is a plus player in three categories and an easy guy to ride during one of his frequent hot streaks. And if it doesn’t, he becomes an easy guy to cut when the 2009 Cliff Lee presents himself.

Amid considerably less fanfare than some other recent Japanese stars coming stateside, Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda delivered just what was expected of him in 2008. Inked to a three-year, $35.3 million contract last offseason, the longtime Hiroshima Toyo Carp ace translated his excellent control and groundball tendencies to the big leagues rather seamlessly.

Prior to the 2008 season, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system churned Kuroda’s Japanese numbers and spit out the following projection: a 4.12 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. The 33 year-old slightly surpassed that forecast, posting a 3.73 ERA, 5.69 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9. In addition to limiting the walks, Kuroda was a worm-killer, generating grounders at a 51.3% clip (11th-highest among starting pitchers).

His 7.6 Home Run/Flyball rate (HR/FB%) was pretty low and figures to regress (HR FB% tends to hover around 11-12% for starters), so the 0.64 HR/9 figure will likely increase in 2009. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from the Hardball Times, we can adjust for Kuroda’s home run luck on flyballs. XFIP uses strikeouts walks and an average HR/FB% (thus eliminating fluky home run performances) to find what a pitcher’s ERA “should” have been, given his controllable skills. Kuroda’s XFIP was 4.02: still pretty solid.

Kuroda came to the Dodgers with the reputation of possessing a deep repertoire. He showcased it in 2008, featuring a 92 MPH fastball (thrown 59.3% of the time), 83.7 MPH slider (26.3%) and an 87.2 MPH splitter (12.2%). The 6-1, 210 pounder also sprinkled in a very light serving of 88.6 MPH cutters (2%) and 78.2 MPH curveballs (0.2%). Kuroda is not an overpowering pitcher. Instead of blowing hitters away, he tries to bait them into making weak contact, beating the ball into the dirt. He had plenty of success in that regard, as batters swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 30.6% of the time versus Kuroda. That tied for the 10th-highest mark in the majors, with Javier Vazquez. While he held his own versus lefties (.260/.306/.399), Kuroda stifled right-handers to the tune of .246/.292/.319.

While Kuroda’s debut was certainly a success, there was one odd aspect of his season worth discussing. One would ordinarily expect that a veteran pitcher with Kuroda’s sort of skill set (low walks, groundball tendencies) would be pretty consistent. However, that was not the case. Baseball Prospectus keeps track of a stat called “FLAKE“, which measures the standard deviation of per-start performance for pitchers. In other words, it measures how consistent a pitcher is from start to start; a lower FLAKE number means that the pitcher is consistent, while a higher FLAKE number indicates that the pitcher is all over the place in terms of the quality of his starts. Kuroda had a FLAKE of .281, third-highest among all starters throwing at least 150 innings. Only Mark Buehrle and Matt Garza had more variance in the quality of their starts. It’s difficult to say whether or not this portends to anything in 2009, but it is worth keeping in mind that Kuroda tossed some gems and some stinkers this past season. His overall numbers scream “consistent”, but his performance might vary more than most.

Kuroda looks like a solid bet to post similar overall numbers in 2009. Marcel projects him to post a 3.94 Fielding Independent ERA, punching out slightly more batters (6.04 K/9) while also issuing a few more free passes (2.55 BB/9). If Kuroda can continue to get batters to chase his diverse arsenal out of the zone, he should be worthy of a middle-round draft pick.

Felix Hernandez’s ERA has improved in every season he’s been in the majors. But don’t let that fool you: he’s not showing signs of improvement and 2008 was perhaps his worst season yet.

Hernandez had a 175/80 K/BB ratio in 200 innings this year, while allowing 17 homers and posting a 3.45 ERA. However, his walk rate was higher than it has ever been before: he allowed 3.59 walks per nine innings, well higher than the 2.51 and 2.83 rates he posted over the last two years. Furthermore, while his strikeout rate remains high, it doesn’t seem to be improving: he struck out 7.85 batters per nine this year, while striking out 7.80 last year and 8.29 in 2006.

Additionally, Hernandez induced fewer swinging strikes than he had in the past. In 2006, batters swung and missed at 8.6% of his pitches, after swinging and missing at 9.7%, 9.0%, and 10.0% over his first three years. This isn’t a significant decrease, but it’s certainly worth noting, especially considering the accompanying rise in his walk rate. He also received fewer called strikes than in the past: 17.1% of his pitches were taken for strikes this year, as compared to 18.9%, 18.3%, and 19.6% over the past three years. This could further attest to diminished control.

Also, Hernandez’s homer rate had been abnormally high over the previous two seasons: in 2006 and 2007, 16.4% and 15.0% of his fly balls had become homers. In 2008 this rate regressed to the mean, and only 9.9% of his fly balls became homers. However, another rather disturbing thing happened: Felix stopped inducing nearly as many ground balls as he had in the past.

In 2008, Hernandez induced grounders on 52.1% of the balls in play against him; in 2007, that was 60.8%, in 2006 it was 57.7%, and in 84 innings in 2005 it was a whopping 67.1%. While 52.1% is still a lot of ground balls, one of Felix’s biggest strengths in the past was his ability to induce as many grounders as, well…just about anyone. Thus, while his HR/FB rate fell almost 7% from 2007, he only allowed three fewer homers in 2008 than he did in 2007 (granted, he also pitched 10 more inning in 2008), thanks to the fact that he allowed 39 more fly balls in 2008.

Finally, it’s well worth noting that while Hernandez’s velocity remained constant, his pitch selection was different in 2008 than in the past. After throwing fastballs 57% of the time in 2006 and 2007, he threw a fastball 65.9% of the time this year. However, after using his slider 20.7% of the time in 2007, he used it only 12.3% of the time in 2008. He also used his curveball less frequently than in the past, throwing it only 8.5% of the time, as compared to 12.4% in 2007 and 20.6% in 2006.

There’s no denying that Felix Hernandez has absolutely filthy stuff. Furthermore, he’s still only 22 years old, and thus has plenty of time to improve. And when that improvement does come, it’s quite possible that it will happen fairly quickly: unlike hitters, pitchers tend to reach new levels rather suddenly, rather than gradually. A good example of this is CC Sabathia – if you look at his stats, you’ll see that he was incredibly consistent from age 20 through age 24, before kicking it into a whole new gear.

Hernandez may find that new level next year, or in five years, and there’s a chance that he may never find that new level at all. However, Hernandez does not appear to be improving so far. In 2008, his walk rate was up, his ground ball rate was down, and he induced fewer swinging strikes. This does not mean that he won’t “figure it out” next season, but it does mean that unless he shows significant improvement next season, his ERA is very likely to rise. Don’t be fooled by the apparent “progress” he’s made by lowering his ERA for three straight seasons: 2008 was perhaps Hernandez’s worst season in the majors. He has ample upside, but be wary of him in 2009.

There’s no denying Joba Chamberlain’s ability.

He posted tremendous numbers this season: in 100 innings (65 as a starter), he struck out 118, walked 39, and allowed only 5 homers, good for an ERA of 2.60 (and a FIP of 2.65). Of course, next season the Yankees plan on using him as a starter. What should you expect?

Well, in his 65 innings as a starter, Joba had a K/BB ratio of 74/25, and allowed only four homers. He has tremendous stuff and has shown the ability to maintain his stuff deep into games, suggesting that the numbers he posted during his starts this year could be indicative of his true ability. In other words: yeah, he’s this good.

Given 200 healthy innings, Joba is a decent bet to have the highest strikeout rate of any AL starter. He will probably walk a fair amount too, but will get so many strikeouts that he will limit the balls put in play, and thus limit the amount of hits he allows. Furthermore, Joba has shown the ability to induce a lot of ground balls – 52% of his balls in play were grounders this year – thereby helping him limit the amount of homers he allows. In fact, Joba’s combination of a high number of strikeouts and a high number of ground balls suggests that he may not allow more than 10-15 homers over 200 innings.
Thus, over 200 healthy innings, it’s fair to say that Joba could be one of the best pitchers in the American Leaugue – and one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball as well. Of course, the real question is: can Joba stay healthy for 200 innings?

And the simplest answer is: probably not.

Joba pitched in 100 innings this year and 112 in 2007. He has battled numerous issues during his short professional career, and the Yankees have handled him with great care. I expect that to ease up somewhat next season. While the Yankees are unlikely to be reckless with their star righty, I think that they are going to let him loose on the AL, and basically hope he holds up. They are likely to put him in the starting rotation on opening day and keep him there fore the whole season. They will certainly monitor his health and his innings count closely, but they probably won’t be sending him to the bullpen any time soon.

It’s quite possible that Joba ends up on the DL at some point during the year – the Yankees will surely take precautionary measures if Joba feels a twinge anywhere, and a stint on the DL could also help keep his innings total under control.

Whether you should draft Joba is going to depend almost entirely on how other people value him. It’s possible that people will get enamored with his upside and ignore the significant risk, causing them to take Joba too early in drafts, or pay too much money for him. But it’s equally possible (and perhaps more likely) that the opposite happens: people think he’s simply too risky, and he slides to the middle/middle-late rounds of the draft. If this happens, you should snatch him.

You probably don’t want your pitching staff hinging on Joba Chamberlain. If you do decide to draft him, you’ll probably want to couple him with some very-low-risk, medium reward pitchers such as Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, or even a guy like Andy Sonnanstine. You want to hedge the inevitable risk associated with Joba, so that if he does get hurt you don’t have the worst pitching staff in the league. However, a pitching staff with a few low risk guys who only offer medium reward, coupled with one or two high-risk high-reward guys like Chamberlain makes a lot of sense.

I’m usually extremely wary of pitchers who are injury risks. The thing is, there are very, very few pitchers who can be as good as Joba Chamberlain is when he’s healthy. Even if Joba only pitches 120 or 140 innings this year, those innings are likely going to be so dominant as to make him quite valuable. And if he is able to approach 180 innings (or more), he could be the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. That’s a risk worth taking.

Chad Billingsley is very good.

In 200 innings in 2008, Billingsley posted a K/BB ratio of 201/80 and had a 3.14 ERA. His 3.35 FIP was 11th lowest of all starters in baseball. And he managed such a low ERA while allowing a BABIP of .313. Billingsley did have a somewhat-low HR/FB, as only 8.4% of his fly balls became homers, but this is not much lower than league average.

In addition to notching a strikeout per inning, Billingsley also managed to induce ground balls in 49% of his balls in play. This is quite a rise from 2007, when 41% of his balls in play were grounders. However, in 2006 his groundball rate was 48.2%, and it’s likely that he will be able to maintain a high GB rate in the future, even if it comes down somewhat from 49%.

Billingsley induced swinging strikes on 10.2% of his pitches, and earned called strikes on 19.3%. Billingsley’s swinging strike percentage is probably for real – he has absolutely filthy stuff. However, his high called strike percentage is somewhat surprising – league average for called strikes is 17.1%, and only ten pitchers had a higher called strike percentage than Billingsley. This is somewhat surprising, as Billingsley didn’t have good control this season, walking 80 hitters.

Thus, it’s questionable whether Billingsley can get as many called strikes next year as he did in 2008. If he gets fewer called strikes, he’s probably going to get fewer strikeouts, too.

However, even though Billingsley walked a high amount of hitters this year, he actually threw a league average amount of balls (36.3%). Thus, the high walk total is somewhat surprising, and seems likely to come down next season.

Finally, it’s worth noting that Billingsley’s innings total increased by a lot last season. In 2007 he threw 147 innings, while in 2008 he threw 212 (between the regular season and post-season). This puts him at risk for the so-called “Verducci Effect,”, named after Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci who found that young pitchers who have a big increase in innings pitched from one season to the next are at risk of injury or performance decline in the following season. Billingsley certainly fits the bill: only 23 years old, Billingsley threw 65 more innings than he did last year.

However, I believe that Billingsley may be less risky than other young pitchers. In addition to not having any injury history, Billingsley has also demonstrated the ability to withstand large – but not too large – workloads over the last few years. Thus, while Billingsley is certainly at risk of being effected by the Verducci Effect, I think his risk may not be too pronounced.

Next season, Billingsley may strike out a few less batters than he did this year, but he should be able to maintain one of the highest strikeout rates for starting pitchers. It’s reasonable to expect his walk rate to also go down, as he didn’t throw that many balls this year, despite his high amount of walks; however, his walk rate will probably remain rather high. He could give up a few less hits next year, as his .313 BABIP is likely to regress to the mean, thus helping his WHIP. Overall, Chad Billingsley has some risk of falling victim to the Verducci Effect, but has among the highest ceilings of any pitcher in fantasy baseball. He may not have the same name-recognition as some other similarly-talented pitchers, and thus has the potential to be somewhat underrated on draft day.

Heading into the 2004 amateur entry draft, Florida State star Stephen Drew was considered to be the top talent available. A lefty-hitting shortstop with power and enough leather to stick at a premium position, Baseball America labeled Drew a “five-tool player.” However, Scott Boras-induced bonus demands caused Drew to slip a bit on draft day, before the Arizona Diamondbacks anted up at pick #15 and delivered a considerable bounty. Though negotiations were contentious, the D-Backs eventually got their man for a cool $4 million, which tied Jered Weaver (also a Boras client who slipped to the Angels at pick #12) for the highest bonus among 2004 draftees.

It didn’t take long for J.D. and Tim’s little brother to make it to the big leagues, as Stephen reached Arizona during the second half of the 2006 season. A college-trained hitter with a high pedigree, Drew predictably beat up on lower level pitching, but posted solid-if-unspectacular numbers in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League. The 6-1, 195 pounder was highly impressive in his first major league stint, however, posting a .316/.357/.517 line in 226 PA. His plate discipline was pretty rough (6.3 BB%, 23.9 K%), but Drew posted a .201 Isolated Power (ISO) number and a healthy 23.8 line drive rate (LD%). His .396 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was still extremely high, as his line drive rate suggested that his BABIP should have come in around .358. All things considered, a 23 year-old player at an up-the-middle position raking right from the get-go is pretty rare.

However, instead of building upon his early-career success, Drew crawled to a .238/.313/.370 line in 2007, with a -1.12 WPA/LI. That figure put Drew in the company of a sordid group at his position, including on-base ciphers Omar Vizquel, Tony Pena Jr. and Juan Uribe. Some of his regression can be chalked up to bad luck, as his sky-high BABIP sank to a lowly .271. However, Drew’s LD% also dipped, down to 16.5%. His expected BABIP was .285, so if we adjust for some bad bounces, Drew’s line “improves” to .252/.327/.384. That still represented a troubling drop in production, particularly in the power department (Drew’s ISO slipped nearly 70 points, down to .133). If you want to look for a silver lining, Drew’s walk rate climbed to 10% and he struck out only 18.4% of the time.

In 2008, Drew essentially replicated his 2006 season, showcasing an aggressive approach that led to 21 home runs and 11 triples (fun fact: according to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, Chase Field increased triples production 76 percent more than the average park from 2006-2008). Drew’s walk rate was identical to his ’06 mark (6.3%), but he lowered his K rate again (17.8%), posted a career-high .211 ISO and hit line drives at a 22.6% clip. His WPA/LI climbed to 0.83, ranking 6th among all shortstops.

In his three years in the big leagues, Drew has produced two stellar campaigns where he took aggressive hacks and experienced a high degree of success. In 2007, when he actively took more pitches, his line drive rate and power fell by a considerable margin. During his solid 2006 and 2008 seasons, Drew had an O-Swing%’s of 30.6% and 28.2%, respectively. Drew’s O-Swing% fell to 21.8% during his more passive 2007 season, but he failed to sting the ball. It seems as though Drew is at his best when he’s looking to swing early in the count, looking for a pitch to drive into Chase Field’s spacious outfield gaps. He has also become more proficient in making contact with pitches thrown out of the strike zone, and has increased his overall Contact% each year:

Drew’s O-Contact% and Contact%, 2006-2008:

2006: 51.2 O-Contact%, 74.3 Contact%
2007: 57.5 O-Contact%, 82 Contact%
2008: 61.8 O-Contact%, 82.6 Contact%

Conventional wisdom says that hitters are best off utilizing a patient approach at the plate, and for many players, that sort of style works wonders. However, in Drew’s case, a “grip-it-and-rip-it” philosophy just may be more effective than a “take-and-rake” design.

It’s rare for Major League Baseball teams to trade prospects straight up for one another, but that is exactly what happened this past week while clubs were finalizing 40-man rosters for the winter in advance of the Rule 5 draft in early December.

The Philadelphia Phillies, in need of a replacement for departing free agent Pat Burrell, traded Double-A outfielder Greg Golson, who appeared in six games with the big club, to the Texas Rangers for John Mayberry Jr., who had spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Golson, 23, was the 21st overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft out of a Texas high school. Mayberry was the 19th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft out of Stanford University.

Both players have very different skill sets. Golson is a raw, athletic player with speed and power potential. Mayberry has limited speed and athleticism, but a ton of power. Neither player currently projects to hit for a high average. In 2008, Golson hit .282/.335/.434 with 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 426 at-bats. He posted rates of 7.4 BB% and a scary 30.5 K%. His ISO was .153.

Mayberry hit .268/.302/.512 in 21 Double-A games before moving up to Triple-A. At the higher level, he had a line of .263/.310/.474 with an ISO of .211 in 437 at-bats. Mayberry, 25, whose father John Sr., had a long Major League career, posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 19.5 K% at Triple-A.

Both players obviously have their strengths and weaknesses. And both players are likely to spend time at the Major League level in 2009 making the league minimum salary. Mayberry is currently in line to help fill the void left by Burrell, who hit .250/.367/.507 with an ISO of .257 in 2008. Mayberry could probably come close to Burrell’s production in terms of power – and average – but he’s not likely to walk over 100 times.

Golson, on the other hand, has a chance to open the season as the Rangers’ center fielder, which would allow Josh Hamilton, the incumbent, to slid to one of the corners. Golson, though, must keep looking over his shoulder with top prospect Julio Borbon – also a center fielder, coming off a breakout season, which was split between High-A and Double-A. Borbon is also quite possibly more advanced as a player at this point, which makes the trade a little perplexing from Texas’ standpoint. Golson’s 2009 MLB numbers will likely be little or no help to a fantasy baseball team – unless you’re looking for stolen base potential in an AL-only league.

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto created quite a stir last spring. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2004 for just $3,500, Cueto tore through the minors in short order before making a lasting first impression in the majors, punching out 18 batters in his first two starts. The 5-10, 185 pounder alternated between dominant and flammable the rest of the year, showcasing plenty of talent while also making apparent his need for a more refined approach.

After signing for .001 percent of what 2004 first-round pick Homer Bailey received, Cueto got his professional career started for the rookie-level GCL Reds in 2005. In 43 innings, Cueto posted solid peripherals (7.95 K/9, 1.67 BB/9), but his ERA was an inflated 5.02 thanks to an unusually high hit rate (10.26/9). Impressed with his work, the Reds had Cueto make one start for Sarasota of the High-A Florida State League, where he would strike out six and walk two in six frames. The Dominican was still largely unknown at this point, as the 2006 Baseball America Prospect Handbook did not rank Cueto as one of Cincinnati’s top 30 prospects and did not include him in the team’s depth chart.

In 2006, Cueto would go a long way toward making himself known to the scouting community, dominating between stops at Low-A Dayton (Midwest League) and Sarasota. In 76.1 frames at Dayton, Cueto would whiff an impressive 9.67 batters per nine innings, while allowing just 1.77 BB/9. His Nintendo-level 5.47 K/BB ratio translated to a 2.65 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). Feeling that Low-A hitters were no match for his low-90’s heat and power slider, Cincinnati promoted Cueto to Sarasota for the second half of the season. His strikeout rate declined somewhat (8.9 K/9) and he walked more batters (3.36 BB/9), but those are still dominant numbers for a 20 year-old in advanced A-Ball, and translated to a solid 3.90 FIP ERA in 61.2 IP. Upon reaching Sarasota, Cueto began generating far more flyballs than he previously had in his career. His GB% was 54% at Dayton, but fell to 39% at Sarasota. Cueto’s flyball-centric approach would continue in the coming years, but we’ll discuss that in more depth later on.

Following the season, BA took note of Cueto’s performance in a big way, as he surged from unranked to rating as the 4th-best prospect in the Reds system. While cautioning that “Cueto’s size doesn’t lend itself to durability”, BA praised his “free and easy three-quarters delivery” that pumped fastballs reaching 96 MPH.

Cueto’s 2007 campaign would make his breakout 2006 season look downright tame by comparison, as he sprinted though three different leagues and terrorized batters at every stop. Cueto opened the season back at Sarasota, where he posted rates of 8.27 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9. His 3.43 K/BB ratio bested his 2.65 showing at High-A in 2006, and translated to a tidy 2.86 FIP ERA in 78.1 IP. Upon being bumped up to AA Chattanooga of the Southern League, Cueto would go bonkers. In 61 frames, he posted a 2.89 FIP ERA and punched out a stunning 11.36 batters per nine innings, issuing just 1.62 BB/9. Cueto’s home run rate climbed from an extremely low 0.34/9 at Sarasota to a more reasonable 0.89/9 at AA, but his 7.00 K/BB ratio made him look like the Southern League’s version of Pedro Martinez. Promoted yet again, Cueto would throw 22 innings for AAA Louisville of the International League. In his first and only taste of the IL, Cueto posted a 21/2 K/BB ratio and a 3.02 FIP ERA.

Now firmly entrenched on prospect lists everywhere, Cueto once again ranked as Cincinnati’s 4th-best farm product following the 2007 season. BA also rated him as the 34th-best overall prospect in the minors, commending Cueto for pitching “like a 10-year major league veteran, not a fresh-faced 21 year-old.” Noting his work with former Reds star Mario Soto, BA commented that Cueto’s changeup had come a long way under the tutelage of the three-time all-star. In addition, Cueto also featured a “93-94 MPH fastball that touches 96” and a “tight 83-88 MPH slider.”

Following his eye-opening, three-affiliate tour-de-force, Cueto impressed Cincinnati brass enough to win himself a rotation spot in the big leagues this past season. The 22 year-old showed the ability to miss plenty of bats, striking out 8.17 hitters per nine frames. However, his control came and went (3.52 BB/9), and he had serious trouble with the long ball, surrendering 1.5 HR/9. Cueto’s K rate was the 14th-best among all major league starters, but his home run rate was the 5th-worst in the game. Only Brandon Backe, teammate Aaron Harang, Paul Byrd and Jeff Suppan were burned by the big fly more often than Cueto.

Cueto has established himself as an extreme flyball pitcher, having generated groundballs just 38.6% of the time in Cincinnati. Unfortunately, his home ball ballpark severely punishes such tendencies. Courtesy of the 2009 Bill James Handbook, we find that Great American Ballpark had a HR Park factor of 128 between 2006 and 2008. GABP increased home run production 28% over the past three years. Suffice it to say, that does not bode well for a guy who puts the ball in the air so often.

Johnny Cueto remains an extremely talented young pitcher. His 93 MPH fastball and mid-80’s power slider can be nearly impossible to hit at times, as evidenced by his minuscule 76.9 Contact% (9th-best in baseball, sandwiched between Cole Hamels and Johan Santana). However, he may want to utilize his changeup more often in 2009, as he threw his slider over 32% of the time (the 5th-highest rate in the big leagues) while using the change just 6.7%. When he threw it, Cueto’s change was a nasty looking pitch, with horizontal movement that was identical to his fastball and a whopping 7 inches of vertical drop compared to his heater.

Cueto has the tools necessary to establish himself as one of the best starters in the big leagues. However, fantasy owners might need to experience some of his growing pains first, as he learns to use his full repertoire and limit the long-ball damage.

For years now, the Houston Astros rotation has seemingly consisted of ace right-hander Roy Oswalt and a bushel of reclamation projects. Sure, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens passed through the neighborhood, but their presence was short-lived. For the most part, Houston has filled out spots two through five with forgettable names such as Brian Moehler, Chris Sampson, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams and Shawn Chacon. I mean, the club gave four starts to Runelvys Hernandez (nearly a win below average in only 19.1 innings), for goodness sakes. Oswalt (3.80 Fielding Independent ERA in 2008) is still going strong, but believe it or not, he was probably Houston’s second-best starter this past season. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez took a major step forward in 2008, pitching brilliantly in between two DL stints for groin and oblique injuries.

A few years back, Rodriguez looked like another Astros pitcher who could be thrown into the pile labeled “not Roy Oswalt.” Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1999, Rodriguez compiled solid minor league numbers (3.72 ERA, 7.21 K/9, 3.07 BB/9), but his high-80’s heat and big-breaking curve were often launched into orbit during his first few seasons in the big leagues. Rodriguez posted a -2.25 WPA/LI in 2005 and “improved” to -2.00 in 2006. He struck out about six batters and walked near four per nine innings, uninspiring peripherals that led to a FIP ERA in the neighborhood of five. Wandy seemed to establish himself as a guy who would be about a half run better than a replacement-level starter, and at 28, he didn’t figure to improve all that much in the coming years.

However, instead of posting Moehler-ish numbers again in 2007, Rodriguez improved across the board. His strikeout rate jumped to 7.78 per nine innings, and he issued 3.05 BB/9, a slight drop from his minor league walk rate. In addition to sharpening his controllable skills, Rodriguez fared a little better in the capricious departments of the stat sheet. His BABIP dropped from an unlucky .325 in 2006 to .305 in ’07, and his 10.1 HR/FB% was much lower than his 11.9% mark in 2006 and whopping 14.8% figure in 2005. Wandy’s K/BB rate jumped from 1.56 in ’06 to 2.55 in ’07, and his FIP ERA lowered to 4.18.

Rodriguez did deal with a couple of medical issues in 2008, but when he took the mound, he was nothing short of excellent. His K rate climbed yet again, all the way up to 8.58 per nine innings. Wandy also showed slightly better control, with 2.88 BB/9. His FIP ERA was cut to 3.62, besting Oswalt. To give you an idea of where Rodriguez placed among his fellow starters, here are his ranks in several important categories (minimum 130 IP):

K/9: 13th
K/BB: 24th
FIP ERA: 24th

In the 25 starts that he made, Rodriguez pitched like one of the best 30 starters in the game. In other words, he pitched like an ace.

So, how has Rodriguez gone from back-of-the-rotation fodder to one of the more productive starters in the NL? The answer appears to lie in his curveball, a mid-70’s breaker with a ton of movement. Rodriguez has increased his usage of the curve from 21.4% of his total pitches in 2006 to 29.9% in 2008, and for good reason. By looking at Wandy’s pitch F/X data from Josh Kalk’s blog, we see that his curve has a dastardly combination of horizontal movement (5.65 inches) and vertical drop (7.41 inches). The pitch essentially drops in the zone as much as a 12-to-6 curveball, while also breaking away from a lefty (in to a righty) more than most sliders do.

By looking at Rodriguez’s pitch data from Stat Corner, it also becomes apparent that hitters are finding Wandy’s pitches more difficult to handle. Each year in the big leagues, Rodriguez has lowered his percentage of balls thrown and increased his percentage of swinging strikes:

2005: 38.4 Ball%, 7 Swinging Strike%
2006: 37.7 Ball%, 7.7 Swinging Strike%
2007: 37.2 Ball%, 8.1 Swinging Strike%
2008: 35.5 Ball%, 8.7 Swinging Strike%

Rodriguez’s Contact% has also decreased each year, from 83.4% in 2005 down to 79.9% in 2008. If there’s a negative to point out here, it’s that Wandy has increasingly become more of a flyball-oriented hurler, not always the best idea in a park where right-handers hit some cheap home runs (according to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, Minute Maid Park increased righty home runs by 15% between 2006-2008).

Will Rodriguez continue to post such impressive numbers in the future? Marcel has Rodriguez retaining most of the gains that he has made over the past two seasons, forecasting a 4.08 FIP ERA with 7.83 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9. Given his increased usage of his plus curveball, more swings and misses from batters and fewer free passes being issued, Wandy could be a magical selection once the top-tier pitchers have been snatched up.

Scott Baker is a slightly better version of Kevin Slowey. And, as you know, Slowey is pretty good.

The similarities between these two Twins righties are striking. Take a look:

If you recall from my article about Slowey, I think that his overall numbers may underrate his actual abilities, as he appeared to show substantial improvement during the season. Still, Baker appears to be a bit better than Slowey: a few more strikeouts (although, again, I think that Slowey’s strikeout rate could rise next year), and fewer balls, even though he walked more batters.

The fact that Baker induced swinging strikes in over 10% of his pitches is an excellent sign – league average for starters is around 7.5%. Baker, like Slowey, is a fly ball pitcher, and therefore will be prone to homers. However, Baker should strike out enough batters to reduce the overall number of fly balls he allows, and he walks few enough so that he minimizes the damage when the he allows a homer.

In 2008, Baker posted a 3.45 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. His BABIP was completely normal (.290), although considering that the Twins were well-below-average defensively (they ranked 27th in Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency), perhaps Baker was a little lucky on balls in play. Baker posted a rather high LOB% of 78.7% – this should regress in the future, but it probably won’t fall more than a few percentage points. His homer rate could rise a few percentage points as well (8.5% of his fly balls left the park), but it shouldn’t rise too much.

Overall, the Scott Baker from 2008 is a very reasonable facsimile of what we should expect in the future. He should post an ERA under 4, a WHIP under 1.20, and strike out around 7 or 7.5 batters per nine innings (over 200 innings, that’s 140-150 strikeouts). Furthermore, Baker is pretty low-risk, as far as pitchers go. The injury he sustained in 2008 had nothing to do with his arm/elbow/shoulder (he strained a groin), and is unlikely to recur.

Scott Baker is the exact type of pitcher that can he had in the middle of most drafts, and is probably better than many other pitchers taken around the same time. Like Slowey, Baker is very low-risk, and the reward is fairly high.