The Kansas City Royals and GM Dayton Moore ostensibly filled a hole this past week, picking up slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins in exchange for string-bean righty Leo Nunez. I suppose that when your everyday first baseman has been Ross Gload (-1.27 WPA/LI), just about anyone starts looking like an attractive alternative. And, superficially, Jacobs looks like quite an upgrade. 32 home runs…93 RBI..what’s not too like? Well, quite a bit, when you get right down to it. Here are some of the reasons to avoid Mike Jacobs on draft day:

He’s allergic to walks: Here are Jacobs’ OBP’s in his three years as a regular: .325, .319, .299. A sub-.300 OBP is terrible for anyone, but it’s downright criminal from a first baseman whose entire value is derived from his bat. Already 28, Jacobs’ discipline does not figure to improve much. In fact, he’s actually becoming more of a hacker as he ages. Here are his outside swing percentages (O-Swing%) over the past three seasons:

2006: 25%
2007: 29.98%
2008: 33.99%

While some guys with a high-contact skill set can get away with chasing bad balls (think Vladimir Guerrero), Jacobs is not one of those players. Which brings us to our second point..

Increasing K rate, lowering contact rate: Jacob’s strikeout rates from ’06 to ’08: 22.4%, 23.7%, 24.9%. His contact rate is also on a three-year decline:

2006: 75.81%
2007: 75.36%
2008: 73.88%

That 2008 contact number rates as the 10th-worst in the majors among qualified batters. While many of the players toward the bottom of that list have been productive (for example, Adam Dunn and Jack Cust), Jacobs does not have the walk rate to make up for the low batting average like Dunn and Cust do.

He needs to be platooned: While Jacobs has at least managed a decent .269/.329/.521 line versus righties, he has had all sorts of issues with lefties. Southpaws have silenced him to the tune of .235/.275/.414 in his career. How many fantasy teams can afford a platoon first baseman?

While Jacobs may seem like an upgrade for the Royals at first glance, he has plenty of blemishes in his game that put a significant dent in his value. Add in the fact that Jacobs is due for a pay hike through arbitration, and this deal looks downright odd for Kansas City.

Perhaps the biggest loser in this deal is fellow Royals first baseman Kila Kaaihue. The lefty batter clubbed 37 home runs and drew 104 walks between AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha in 2008, but his role now figures to be minimal. Which I guess begs the question, did they really need to go outside of the organization to find Gload’s replacement?

Mike Jacobs: walk-averse, strikeout-prone, and helpless versus left-handers. Don’t be like Dayton: avoid Mike Jacobs on draft day (I’m David Golebiewski, and I approve this message).

14 wins, a 4.42 ERA and 108 strikeouts. Not bad for a late-round flier, right?

Indeed, Edwin Jackson may have been the best fifth starter in baseball this year, and was a big reason why the Tampa Bay Rays won 97 games. However, much of Jackson’s success this year is unsustainable, and you should be very wary of him in 2009.

Let’s start simply: in 183 innings, Jackson posted a K/BB ratio of 108/77. If you’re going to strike out 5.3 batters per nine innings, you’d better do something else well – namely, you’d better limit your walks and/or get a lot of ground balls.

Unfortunately, Jackson doesn’t limit his walks, and doesn’t get a tremendous amount of grounders, either (he actually allowed slightly more fly balls than grounders this year). So what does he do well? Jackson was exceptional in “clutch” situations this year.

In fact, according to our handy “clutch” stat here at Fangraphs, Edwin Jackson was the third-most “clutch” pitcher in baseball. Of course, the better a pitcher is, the more likely is to be clutch – a good pitcher is more likely to retire a hitter in any situation than a bad pitcher.

Therefore, it’s of little surprise to see John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, and Jon Lester among the top 11 “clutchiest” pitchers in baseball this year. However, Edwin Jackson’s clutchiness is a big surprise: Jackson was far better in important situations than he was overall.

In fact, Jackson allowed an .830 OPS against him with no one on base, but a .752 OPS with runners on. With runners in scoring position and two outs, he allowed a .682 OPS. With men on first and second, opposing batters got a hit only five times in 40 at bats. They were 4-for-17 with runner at third, and hit only .262 with runners in scoring position, as opposed to .281 overall.

Perhaps it’s possible that Jackson simply focuses better in important situations, allowing him to pitch better with runners on base. I am skeptical of this proposition in general, but I allow that it’s possible. If this were the case, we’d expect Edwin to exhibit similar splits in 2007 (when, incidentally, his K/BB ratio was a very-similar 128/88).

In 2007, his OPS against with none on was .847; whereas his OPS with runners on was 821. However, with runners in scoring position, his OPS against was .857. Batters hit .305 with runners in scoring position, as compared to .299 overall.

In short, Edwin Jackson displayed no ability to pitch well in the clutch in 2007. And he showed very little, if any, actual improvement in his overall game from 2007 to 2008. Rather, his “improvement” is tied directly to his splits with runners on base, leading him to give up far fewer runs than he “should” have. Unless you think that this is actual improvement in his “clutch” pitching – which is extremely rare and not backed up by the numbers – look for Jackson’s ERA to rise, perhaps significantly, in 2009.

Very rarely do teams consummate a prospect-for-prospect swap. It seems as though GMs favor the “devil you know” over the “devil you don’t” approach, preferring to keep the young players whom they have invested time, energy and money developing.

However, the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers made just such a deal in December of 2006. In a pitching prospect challenge trade, the Rangers sent former 1st rounder John Danks to the South Side as part of a deal that shipped Brandon McCarthy to Arlington. While the move was viewed as relatively even at the time, Danks has emerged as an ace-quality starter, while McCarthy has battled finger and shoulder maladies. After an inconsistent rookie season, Danks made tremendous strides in 2008:

2007: -1.62 WPA/LI, 5.50 ERA
2008: 2.99 WPA/LI, 3.32 ERA

Danks lowered his ERA by well over 2 runs this past season. Will that dramatic improvement hold? In a word, yes.

Danks upped his K rate slightly, from 7.06 in ’07 to 7.34 in ’08. He also slashed his walk rate significantly, from 3.5 BB/9 to 2.63 BB/9. However, the biggest difference in Danks’ numbers came in the home run department:

2007: 1.81 HR/9, 13.8 HR/FB, 34.8 GB%
2008: 0.69 HR/9, 7.4 HR/FB, 42.8 GB%

An extreme flyball pitcher in ’07, Danks generated grounders at a much higher clip in 2008. Consequently, his home run rate dropped from untenably high to comfortably below average. He may give some of that gain back next season (his HR/FB rate was pretty low; it tends to stick around 11% for pitchers) but he should be able to limit the longball damage and avoid another 2007 fireworks spectacle, given his more even GB/FB distribution. Given the homer-happy tendencies of U.S. Cellular Field, this is no small consideration.

With a few more strikeouts, as well as significantly less walks and homers, Danks cut his FIP ERA from 5.54 in 2007 all the way down to 3.44 in 2008. To what can we attribute this dramatic turnaround? A look at Danks’ pitch data reveals the addition of a new weapon:

(FB=fastball, SL=Slider, CT=Cutter, CB=Curveball, CH=Changeup XX= unidentified. The first number is the % that the pitch was thrown, the number in parentheses is the velocity)

2007: FB 61%(89.5), SL 0.6%(81), CB 17.4%(76.9), CH 21%(81.7), XX 2.7%
2008: FB 52.2%(91.3), SL 4.7%(83.9), CT 16.4%(87.1), CB 6.4%(77) CH 20.3%(82.8), XX 4.7%

In addition to gaining nearly 2 MPH on his fastball, Danks added a cutter to his repertoire. A look at Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X data reveals why this offering is so important to Danks’ development: the cutter gives him a pitch to work away from lefties and in on the hands of right-handers. Essentially, the offering opens up a whole new quadrant of the strike zone previously unavailable to him.

Danks is no flash in the pan. Every statistical and scouting measure available points to his breakout 2008 campaign as legitimate. Don’t hesitate to invest heavily in this southpaw: he’s here to stay among the elite arms in the American League.

Oakland A’s submariner Brad Ziegler took a rather circuitous route to major league success. Originally a 20th round selection by Philadelphia Phillies in the 2003 amateur entry draft, Ziegler was considered a finesse righty with little shot of ever reaching the major leagues, much less setting records once he got there. After tossing only 6 innings for the Phillies organization in 2003, Ziegler was released. A 23 year-old not considered worthy of a High-A roster spot, Ziegler toiled in the Independent League in 2004 before the Oakland Athletics (who drafted him in 2002 but didn’t sign him) offered him a minor league contract.

Ziegler would slowly work his way up the major league ladder, showing good peripherals (7.44 K/9, 1.84 BB/9) but also displaying the hittability of his ordinary stuff (9.29 H/9). Following a 2006 season in which he performed adequately at AA but was lit up at AAA, Ziegler was approached by A’s management about a career change: they wanted to know if he would drop down and become a submarine-style pitcher. As a 26 year-old with long odds of making it as a conventional hurler, Ziegler accepted the challenge and has posted Nintendo-level numbers ever since:

2007 (AA): 23.2 IP, 1.14 ERA, 4.50 K/BB, 60 GB%
2007 (AAA): 54.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.14 K/BB, 63 GB%

The silly numbers continued at Sacramento in 2008. He posted a microscopic 0.37 ERA in 24.1 IP, generating a grounder 66% of the time. And, upon a promotion to the big leagues, Ziegler would set a major league record for scoreless innings to start a career, passing George McQuillan’s previous mark of 25. Brad’s streak would run all the way up to 39 innings before it was finally broken. In 59.2 major league frames, Ziegler posted a 1.06 ERA while generating grounders at a 64.7% clip. So, will Ziegler’s knuckle-scraping goodness continue in 2009, or is he due to fall back down to earth?

Not to use a cop-out, but the answer is some of both. Ziegler had some legitimately good things going for him, such as the very high rate of worm-killers and a subsequently low home run rate (0.3 per nine innings). However, as you dig a little deeper into his numbers, it becomes apparent that the man who had to fight tooth-and-nail to make it to the majors and suffered a fractured skull in the process was actually quite lucky in 2008.

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that a guy posting a 1.06 ERA had some bounces go his way, but Ziegler’s 3.72 FIP ERA was leaps and bounds above his actual ERA. In fact, the difference between his Fielding Independent ERA and actual ERA (2.66 runs) was by far the largest gap among relievers throwing at least 40 innings (ironically, the guy with the second biggest split is fellow submariner and former Athletic Chad Bradford). Ziegler also benefitted from an extremely low BABIP (.246). While the A’s flashed the leather in 2008 (ranking 4th in team Defensive Efficiency) and convert more balls put in play into outs than most clubs, that BABIP figure is still due for some regression to the mean.

Perhaps the biggest reason to expect Ziegler’s ERA to climb quite a bit is his otherworldly strand rate this past season. He left 92.3% of runners on base (!), also the highest mark among relievers with at least 40 IP. To put that number in perspective, relief demi-god Mariano Rivera has a career strand rate of 79.5%. When that extraordinarily high strand rate comes down, his ERA will go up.

Brad Ziegler is an amazing story and a very fun pitcher to watch, but his numbers point to a good deal of regression occurring in 2009. Add in the usual problems that submarine pitchers have with opposite-handed batters (he gave up a .370 OBP to LHP) and his low K rate (4.53), and it becomes clear that Ziegler is more of a solid relief specialist than a closer-in-waiting.

To be honest, I had figured that Diamondbacks centerfielder Chris B. Young would be entrenched as a star-caliber player by this point in his career. A 6-2, 200 pounder with a unique blend of patience, power and athleticism, Young was originally a 16th round steal by the Chicago White Sox in the 2001 amateur entry draft. On the heels of a gargantuan season for AA Birmingham in 2005 (.277/.377/.545, 26 HR in 554 PA), Young was shipped to the D-Backs in a deal that netted Chicago the equally enigmatic Javier Vazquez. The one question that pundits had about Young was his lofty strikeout totals, but he appeared to be making some gains on that front as he climbed the minor league ladder:

2005 (AA): 12.7 BB%, 23.3 K%
2006 (AAA): 11.5 BB%, 17.7 K%

Following a .276/.359/.532 campaign at AAA Tucson that included the reduction in his whiffs, Young made a brief cameo with Arizona and looked poised to post some outstanding numbers as an everyday player in 2007.

However, Young’s transition to the majors did not go as smoothly as expected. His solid plate discipline eroded, as he managed just a 7% walk rate to go along with a lofty 24.8 K%. While he displayed a good deal of pop (.230 ISO), Young’s .237/.295/.467 showing earned him a -0.05 WPA/LI.

2008 brought him some gains in the patience department, as he upped his walk rate to 9%. However, that sinister K rate rose to 26.4% and he posted a .248/.315/.443 line, with a slightly better WPA/LI of 0.24. Young’s 77.47% contact rate placed him in the lower third tier among qualified batters, though it was actually an improvement over his 76.66% rate in 2007. Young also got jammed with alarming frequency, as his 16.8 IF/FB% was the fifth-highest mark among qualified batters. So, what gives?

If a player possesses good secondary skills (walks and power), strikeouts do not preclude success. However, a K rate in the vicinity of Young’s does put a significant cap on his batting average, putting more stress on his ability to draw free passes and pop extra base hits; if you’re only going to manage a .230 average, you better be able to draw walks by the bushel to compensate (lest you post execrable OBP’s like Young has to this point). It does appear that Young made some gains in this department, as he lowered his Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) from 22.87 in 2007 to 20.43% in 2008.

The question regarding Young at this point is, will he draw enough free passes to offset the handicap of a .230-ish batting average? Given his track record, it seems reasonable that Young will draw a few more walks as he matures, but the high K rate is here to stay given his contact rate and his issues with breaking balls. Still, he has the secondary skills and speed (27 SB in ’07, 14 in ’08) to be a fantasy asset. Only 25 heading into next season, Young still possesses the skills to guide him down a Mike Cameron-type career path if he can be a little more selective at the plate.

Stolen bases are annoying.

Most offensive stats in fantasy baseball are interrelated – if you hit a home run, you also score a run and drive (at least) a run in on at the same time. But stolen bases are almost entirely unrelated to the other offensive categories, and are therefore the most inefficient and difficult offensive stat to obtain.

Players who offer power as well as steals – such as Grady Sizemore – tend to be extremely valuable, and rightly so. Therefore, it behooves the smart fantasy player to find late-round picks who can rack up a lot of steals. While they may not contribute too much in other categories, the idea is that you are able to stock up on power hitters earlier, and then steal some steals (get it?) late.

With that in mind, meet Emmanuel Burriss.

The 23-year-old shortstop debuted for the San Francisco Giants this year, posting a line of .283/.357/.323. More importantly for you, he stole 13 bases (in 18 attempts) in a mere 240 at bats. With the departure of Omar Vizquel and the dearth of other shortstops in the Giants system, Burris has the inside track on the shortstop gig in San Francisco next year. Of course, he’s not likely to be particularly good – in fact, his minor league track record suggests that Burris may be one of the worst hitters in baseball next year.

However, that doesn’t really matter to you. What matters is that Burris is fast. Very fast. In 2007, he stole 68 bases in 125 games. The year before he stole 34 bases in 65 games. That kind of speed is rare to find – and it’s even rarer that a guy with that kind of speed is going to be playing every day.

Furthermore, Burriss has demonstrated an excellent ability to put the ball in play during his short professional career. Of course, he rarely walks and has virtually no power, but he also doesn’t strike out too often. This means that he should be able to keep his batting average respectable – even if his OBP is poor and his SLG is downright abysmal. While the Giants may be concerned about his lack of patience and power, fantasy players only care about his batting average and stolen bases – both of which should be respectable, at least.

Emmanuel Burriss isn’t very good, at least not yet. He won’t hit many homers or drive in many runs, but he’s extremely fast and is line to play every day. If he can manage 600 plate appearances this year, Burris could steal in the neighborhood of 40-50 bases. While the risk is rather high, there are few players out there who could give you that many steals…especially players who are likely to be available very late in your draft.

Suffice it to say, new Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche has not gotten his major league career off to a rousing start. Better known as “the guy who went to Pittsburgh in the Bay/Ramirez deal”, LaRoche was nonetheless considered one of the most promising prospects in a fertile Dodgers farm system.

You wouldn’t know it by examining his major league line, however, as Adam’s little brother put together a .166/.252/.256 slash line in 252 PA split between the Bucs and the Dodgers in 2008. LaRoche’s -1.82 WPA/LI put him in the sordid company of out-machines such as Michael Bourn, Omar Vizquel and Tony Pena Jr. So, who is the “real” Andy LaRoche: the guy with a rock-solid .294/.380/.517 minor league line, or the Andy Marte clone who has stumbled to a career .184/.288/.272 showing in 316 big league at-bats?

A 39th-round selection out of Grayson County Community College (TX) in the 2003 draft, LaRoche really burst onto the prospect scene during the 2005 season. As a 21 year-old in the High-A Florida State League, Andy put up a .333/.380/.651 line in 249 AB, popping 21 home runs. Vero Beach (his home ballpark) is known as a hitter’s park, but that’s still a pretty tasty showing for a young guy in advanced A-Ball. Bumped up to AA Jacksonville for the second half of the year, LaRoche compiled a respectable .273/.367/.445 line in 227 AB, with 9 home runs. Andy showed solid patience, upping his walk rate from 7% at Vero Beach to 12% with Jacksonville, though his K rate did increase (from 14% to 20.5%). Considering that Jacksonville plays as more of a pitcher-friendly venue, LaRoche’s second-half performance was solid.

2006 would be another banner year, as Andy showed excellent plate discipline in a return engagement to Jacksonville in the Southern League. In 230 AB, he posted a .309/.419/.483 line, with 9 dingers and more walks (41) than strikeouts (32). LaRoche’s walk rate climbed to a healthy 14.9%, while his K rate dipped to 11.6%. His power (.174 ISO) was mid-range, but the overall picture was bright: a player with refined control of the zone and doubles power. He would be promoted to AAA Las Vegas for the second half of the ’06 season, where LaRoche would compile a .322/.400/.550 line that conjured up memories of his 2005 slugfest, as he popped 10 homers in 202 AB. The SLG% can be looked at skeptically, however, as Las Vegas plays like a launching pad.

Andy would once again crush the ball in Vegas in 2007 (.309/.399/.589, 18 HR in 265 AB), showing the discipline (12.5 BB%) and low K rates (13.5 K%) that he had become known for. His first taste of the majors with the Dodgers would go at little less smoothly, as he posted a .226/.365/.312 line in 93 AB.

All of which brings us to 2008, a season in which LaRoche seemingly fell out of favor with Dodgers management. He put up a .293/.452/.439 line in 123 AB at Las Vegas, before he basically rode the pine for LA. As mentioned, LaRoche was shipped to the ‘burgh in a splashy deadline deal and proceeded to play at a level that made Pirates fans long for the days of Jose Bautista.

The first thing that needs to be mentioned here is LaRoche’s incredibly unlucky, break 100 mirrors/see a black cat/walk under a ladder .177 BABIP. That’s an absurdly low number, and even if we note that LaRoche hit line-drives at a below-average 15.6% clip, we would still expect his BABIP to come in at .276. If we adjust for that discrepancy, Andy’s ghoulish .166/.252/.256 line adjusts to .265/.351/.355. Yes, that’s still mild, but it doesn’t look quite so poor. And, given Andy’s 17-18% line-drive rate at the AA and AAA levels, we would expect his LD% to move upward in the future.

Another item that must be pointed out is LaRoche’s propensity to pull the ball in the majors. Andy’s minor league numbers paint the picture of a patient hitter with a high contact rate, a guy willing to spray the ball all over the field. Perhaps LaRoche still thinks he’s in Las Vegas, however, as he hit a groundball to the right side of the infield 37.2% of the time in 2008. LaRoche hit a grounder 49.5% of the time overall. Among third baseman with at least 200 PA, only former Pirates prospect-turned journeyman Jose Castillo put the ground on the ball more often. While Andy has certainly experienced some poor luck thus far, this is one area where he definitely needs improvement. You’re not in Vegas anymore, Andy: do what got you to the majors in the first place and spray the ball around the diamond.

While Andy LaRoche’s major league stats make fantasy owners want to avert their eyes, it is too early to write him off. That scary big league line is at least partially the result of terrible luck on balls put in play, and his minor league dossier reflects a player possessing excellent strike-zone control and doubles power. If Andy gets back to using the whole field, he could be a bargain. Those willing to look past a small sample of at-bats in the majors could be rewarded with a nifty under-the-radar player at the hot corner.

Yesterday, Peter talked about a Marlins starter headed toward acedom (if he’s not there already) in Ricky Nolasco. Today, I’m going to examine a Florida hurler who is headed in the exact opposite direction: left-hander Scott Olsen.

A few years back, Olsen looked like an organizational pillar. In his first full year in the big leagues (2006), he struck out 8.27 batters per nine innings. Sure, he needed some refinement (3.74 BB/9), but young lefties equipped with a hopping 91 MPH fastball, a good slider and a promising changeup do not grow on trees. Olsen posted a 4.33 FIP ERA as a 22 year-old, with seemingly plenty of room for growth.

Whatever the reason might be, Olsen’s 2007 campaign surely did not turn out the way that many people expected. He was hammered for a 5.81 ERA, and while that was partially the result of an abnormally high .350 BABIP, his controllable skills were not much better. Olsen’s FIP ERA soared to 5.33 in ’07, a full run higher than his breakout rookie campaign. After punching out over 8 batters per nine innings in 2006, Olsen’s K rate fell to 6.78 and his walk rate soared to 4.33 per nine innings. After having thrown his fastball 62.4 percent in 2006, he threw the heat over 70 percent of the time in ’07 while neglecting his changeup (he threw it 19.2% in ’06, but just 8.5% in ’07). His fastball also showed a slight dip in velocity, from 90.9 MPH to 90.1 MPH.

In 2008, Olsen went back to throwing his changeup more often, but the results were not much better. Sure, his 4.20 ERA seems like a dramatic improvement over his 5.81 showing the previous year, but that “improvement” is built upon a house of cards. Olsen was the beneficiary of a very low .266 BABIP, and his FIP ERA was still an ugly 5.02. His strikeout rate fell precipitously (again), all the way down to 5.04 whiffs per nine innings. He did exhibit better control (3.08 BB/9), but it wasn’t enough to offset the dramatic downturn in his K rate. The most startling aspect of Olsen’s 2008 campaign was his total lack of velocity: his fastball averaged just 87.8 MPH, with his slider and change also coming in slower.

Since his stellar rookie season, Olsen has lost 3 MPH off of his fastball. With that loss of zip, Olsen’s strikeout rate has fallen off of a cliff, as he’s gone from a pitcher capable of dominating lineups to a guy who struck out fewer batters per nine innings than Jarrod Washburn and Darrell Rasner. Be it a physical problem or something coaching related (he’s had a few run-ins with teammates and was suspended in 2007), the current version of Olsen is not nearly the fledging ace that we saw during the 2006 season. The ERA sure looks better, but his improvement in 2008 was illusory. Until Olsen proves that he’s capable of missing bats once again, he’s someone that you want to avoid investing in.

I’ll admit it: I have a mancrush on Ricky Nolasco.

How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.

This year, Nolasco finished with a 3.52 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 212 innings pitched. That’s a very good season, but his overall numbers don’t reflect just how well Nolasco pitched for most of the season.

Going in to his start on June 15 against the Rays, Nolasco sported a 4.63 ERA, and had a 43/26 strikeout/walk ratio in 72 innings. However, on that fateful night in Tropicana Field, something changed. Perhaps it was a minor adjustment that paid major dividends, or the result of something Nolasco had been working on for years; either way, Nolasco was never the same after.

On June 15, Nolasco allowed two earned runs allowed in eight and two thirds innings, with one walk and 12 strikeouts. It was only the third time he had walked less than two batters (the second time was his previous start), and the first time he had struck out more than seven in a start.

After his start against the Rays, Nolasco had 19 more starts. He walked one or fewer batters in all but one of those starts. And he struck out seven or more batters in 10 of those starts. In fact, including his June 15 start, Nolasco finished the season by pitching 140 innings with a 2.95 ERA, striking out 143 and walking 16.

Think about that: 143 strikeouts and 16 walks.

For comparison, CC Sabathia pitched 130 innings with the Milwaukee Brewers this year, and had a K/BB ratio of 128/25. From June 15 on, Nolasco had a higher strikeout rate and a lower walk rate than Sabathia did in his time with the Brewers.

Of course, Nolasco may not be in the same class as CC Sabathia. Nolasco’s one weakness is that he is somewhat homer prone: he gave up 28 long balls this season, including 15 in his amazing 140-inning stretch to end the season. However, that is not an absurdly high total, and it is artificially enhanced by a rather high amount of balls in the air that became homers.

Nolasco allowed a homer on 10.6% of the fly balls hit against him. League average for a starter is somewhere around 11%. Furthermore, Nolasco plays in a spacious ballpark, suggesting that he should allow even fewer homers than average. Therefore, we can reasonably expect his homer rate to regress next year.

Nolasco had a 2.95 over his 140-inning stretch of dominance despite having a homer rate higher than it should have been.

Even if we assume that Nolasco can’t possibly be as dominant as he was from June 15 until the end of this season, we have every reason to expect that Ricky Nolasco is going to be one of the best pitchers in fantasy baseball next season. And he has the potential to be one of the biggest steals of draft day.

By traditional standards of measuring a pitcher’s effectiveness, Red Sox righty Daisuke Matsuzaka had a stellar 2008 season. With an 18-3 record and a shiny 2.90 ERA, one would be led to believe that he was one of the very best starters in the majors. When one digs a little deeper, however, there are plenty of trends that point to regression for Matsuzaka in 2009. Here are a few of the factors working against Dice-K:

BABIP: Matsuzaka got plenty lucky on balls put in play in 2008, with a .267 BABIP. BABIP for a pitcher tends to hover around .300, and in fact Dice-K posted a .306 BABIP in his first state-side campaign in 2007. Even if we allow for Matsuzaka to post a slightly lower-than-average BABIP because of the quality of Boston’s defense (the Red Sox posted the 5th-best Defensive Efficiency in baseball), he’s still due for regression to the mean.

Walk rate: As any Red Sox fan can attest, Matsuzaka has a maddening tendency to nibble at the corners. Dice K’s walk rate went from a mediocre 3.52/9 in 2007 to a bloated 5.05/9 in 2008. Among starters with at least 100 innings pitched, only Tom Gorzelanny, Fausto Carmona and Barry Zito walked more batters per nine innings. For the record, none of those three guys had an ERA under 5.15.

Home run rate : Matsuzaka’s home run rate fell from 1.10/9 in 2007 to 0.64/9 in 2008. However, there are no real trends to support that drop, as Dice-K generated about the same number of groundballs (about 38 percent), flyballs (43 percent) and line-drives (18 percent) in both seasons. The only difference was a dip in his home run/fly ball rate, from 10% in 2007 to 6.1% in 2008. HR/FB rates tend to normalize around 11 percent for pitchers, so Matsuzaka is due for regression to the mean here as well. As a flyball pitcher, Dice-K is pretty unlikely to give up just 12 long balls ever again.

Left on base%: Dice-K stranded 80.6% of baserunners in 2008, well above the league average and his 2007 showing (73.9%). If that number comes back to earth, so will his ERA.

All of these auspicious numbers led to a large dichotomy between Matsuzaka’s actual ERA (2.90) and his Fielding Independent ERA (4.03). That’s the third-largest difference among starters tossing at least 100 frames (Armando Galarraga is first, Justin Duchscherer is second).

None of this is to say that Daisuke Matsuzaka is a lousy pitcher. He ranked among the top 20 starters in strikeout rate and, as his Fangraphs page attests, Matsuzaka has a cornucopia of pitches at his disposal. However, if you’re expecting another sub-3 ERA from Dice-K, you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Don’t let those W-L numbers fool you: Matsuzaka is good, but not that good.