10 Boppers Only

Home runs. That’s it. Yesterday, I discussed 11 hitters you might investigate if you have a hankering for stolen bases. Today, I’ll flip over to home runs. But this time, I’m going to do things a bit differently. That’s because all the home run hitters are generally going to be owned. So instead, let’s review names that really only contribute in the one category. The idea here is that if you solely need home runs and don’t want to also have to pay for other categories you might be secure in, you might want to target names whose value is almost entirely derived from that one category.

These are the 10 hitters with the most ATC rest of season projected home runs who also met the following filters:

<30 RBI
<30 Runs
<5 SB
<.250 AVG

Jorge Soler has hit the same 11 home runs he’s projected for over the rest of the season, but it’s come over 355 PAs, as opposed to the 220 he’s forecasted to reach the rest of the way. That’s because it’s been a real down power year for him, as his HR/FB rate easily sits at a career low during his first season with the Giants. Both his HardHit% and Barrel% are down, but still typically match with a higher HR/FB rate than 10.8%, which is below the league average of 11.4%. Soler bats leadoff now so you’re not going to get many RBI, but perhaps he’ll be a better source of runs scored than projected. Perhaps a power rebound is in store and he shouldn’t cost much to find out.

It’s a real hoot seeing Brent Rooker’s name meeting my arbitrary filters! He’s been a monster so far this year, supplying power as expected, but also surprisingly hitting .294. None of the projections believe that’ll last, which will bring his RBI and runs scored numbers closer to my filters. Of course, Statcast thinks he’s more or less deserving of his results, as his .393 xwOBA is nearly as high as his .402 actual mark. But that doesn’t mean he’ll keep it up, of course. It’s extremely difficult to post a .389 BABIP with such an extreme FB%, but the HR/FB rate looks sustainable. Unfortunately, if trying to trade for him, his owner won’t be valuing him as essentially a one-category guy.

After disappointing in half a season last year with just a .267 wOBA, Mark Vientos has been splendid this season. He has cut his strikeout rate, upped his power, and his BABIP has spiked despite a low LD%. Like Rooker, he’s been great, so it’s highly unlikely you’ll be able to trade for him as just a home run guy like the projections think he is. I doubt the BABIP is real, though, and he’s still swinging and missing often, so I’m not sure I totally buy the improved strikeout rate either. I think he’s due for regression.

Despite a .219 wOBA on a team going nowhere, Brandon Drury continues to earn starts nearly every day. Clearly, the projections are unmoved by his seriously disappointing season so far, as he’s knocked just one home run in 178 PAs, to go along with a puny .044 ISO. Hitting nine homers the rest of the way would seem like a miracle at this point.

Nolan Gorman is one of the poster boys for the all-power, nothing else group. With a 38.1% strikeout rate, it’s nearly impossible for him to contribute in batting average, and all those strikeouts kill his OBP, cutting into his runs scored potential. But he does have 18 home runs thanks to an elite Barrel%, driving a 19.1% HR/FB rate. He also hits a ton of fly balls, so he knows exactly who he is. He has swiped six bases already, so he may not be a complete zero in stolen bases, and he’s actually on a decent RBI and runs scored pace. That’s just be tough to keep up while batting toward the bottom of the order. This is essentially a less powerful Joey Gallo.

In his first year with the Mariners, Jorge Polanco has been a major disappointment. His power has evaporated, en route to just a .269 wOBA. However, the home run power hasn’t declined as much as his ISO, as his HR/FB rate remains in double digits, not too far from his previous three years when he first enjoyed a power spike. The difference is a drop in FB% to his lowest since 2016, though that shouldn’t be so bad as his LD% has also surged to its highest since that same year. It hasn’t helped his BABIP though, even paired with a low IFFB%, which is shocking. The biggest problem here is a strikeout rate that has jumped above 30% for the first time, despite only a marginal increase in SwStk%. I think he should fair better over the rest of the season if he could hold a starting job.

Max Kepler is another whose power has disappeared so far. His HR/FB rate has dropped to a career worst 6.1%, despite his highest ever maxEV and a Barrel% right in line with his career average. He has also posted a career high FB%, so should his HR/FB rate rebound, he’ll get a nice boost in home runs from all those extra fly balls. It’s odd though that his walk rate has plummeted to a career worst, while his SwStk% has jumped into the teens for the first time, but that hasn’t affected his strikeout rate. Overall, most everything here looks pretty normal, so I would expect his power to come around at some point.

Perhaps Michael Busch hasn’t hit for as much power as hoped, with a 15% HR/FB rate, but he’s made up for it with a .371 BABIP, resulting in a decent batting average, rather than a drain. Of course, his lower xwOBA suggests the high BABIP is a mirage, which means he’ll likely be the power only going moving forward. The double digit Barrel% here is good, but his HardHit% and maxEV are closer to mediocre and lower than what I would have expected. At least he’s hitting fly balls at just over 40% of the time and offsetting his strikeouts with a double digit walk rate.

Mike Yastrzemski’s power has mostly dropped each season since his 2019 debut, but he makes the most of it with a consistent FB% in the mid-40% range. That has typically hurt his BABIP, but not this year, allowing him to avoid being a real batting average killer. Everything here looks pretty stable, except for the drop in walk rate combined with a career worst strikeout rate. But those strikeouts aren’t the result of lots of swings and misses, but just a higher rate of called strikes than average. That’s because he just isn’t very aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone, typically posting Z-Swing% marks below the league average. Swing Mike, swing!

Let’s get Jesús Sánchez into a left-handed home run friendly park, like in Cincinnati. Heck, even the White Sox home park will do. His power metrics look fantastic, with consistent maxEV marks in the 115 range, Barrel% marks just over 12% the past two seasons, and a HardHit% that has jumped just over 50% this year. Yet, he’s only posted an ISO over .200 once and his HR/FB rate sits at just 15.9% this year. That ain’t right! He doesn’t strike out too often for a power hitter, but could definitely afford to take more walks. What is holding back his power output is a low FB%. He really shouldn’t be hitting grounders at an upper 40% rate with a low-30% FB%. That batted ball profile hasn’t even helped his BABIP, which sits at a league average .293 for his career. This is the kind of power profile that could explode at any time.