10 Bold Predictions – Mendoza Level Production

by
October 3, 2012

Like many of my fellow RotoGraph writers, I attempted some bold predictions before the season began. Here is how I failed.

Brennan Boesch will be a Top 30 fantasy player.

I missed big here. Using ESPN’s player rater, it has him at #190 among just hitters. I liked the idea of the player before before Fielder and Cabrera having a good season. The problem was that no one on the Tigers wanted to step up. Eight Tigers batted in the #2 hole with Berry, Dirks, Boesch and Infante all hitting there in at least 20 games. As a group they hit .258/.313/.400. What a wasted opportunity for some fantasy player to be a Run producing machine. 0-1

Jacoby Ellsbury will be better in 2012 than in 2011.

Another swing and miss. He was only able to play in 72 games and then produced at a subpar level. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2013. 0-2

Zack Cozart will be a top five shortstop

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Not close again. He is probably around the #20 fantasy SS. Runs and HRs were good from a SS. His AVG and SB were horrible. His inability to get on base via hits or walks limited his total Runs and SBs. His AVG will be a drag for years to come. 0-3

Zack Greinke will be a top three fantasy pitcher.

I had a feeling that he would be lights out this year. I was wrong. Again. He was a top 20 pitcher, just not elite 0-4

Josh Willingham will hit 35+ home runs.

Holy cow, I got one right. The key for putting up good number for him is staying on the field. 1-4

Joakim Soria will end up with 40+ saves.

Tommy John Surgery took him out before the season began. It will be interesting to see where he possibly ends up in 2013 (I am about 90% sure the Royals will not pick up his option) and at what level will he pitch. 1-5

Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Ryan Doumit will not in play 162 between the 3 of them.

Morneau – 134 games
Mauer – 145 games
Doumit – 134 games

I am amazed at how many games these 3 played. I would have like to have seen the person that would have bet that each of the 3 would play in 134 or more games. 1-6

At least three of the following six pitchers will end up on the DL in 2012: Ervin Santana, Bud Norris, Edwin Jackson, Madison Bumgarner, Michael Pineda and Ryan Dempster.

Norris, Pineda and Dempster all ended up on the DL. Sweet, I double the number of correct picks 2-6

Edinson Volquez‘s ERA will be better than Mat Latos‘ ERA.

Volquez: 4.14 ERA
Latos: 3.52 ERA

Volquez improved quite a bit, but Latos didn’t worsen enough. 2-7

Of Chris Perez, Matt Capps and Javy Guerra, two will still be closers at the end of the season.

Injuries bit me again. Perez made it as the closer throughout the season (I really don’t know how), Guerra didn’t and Capps got hurt and therefore I lost the prediction. 2-8

I batted .200. Mendoza would be proud.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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pearsonw
13 years ago

But it’s a small sample size! I think you need to make a few hundred bold predictions next season so we can determine your true talent level.

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