$1 Option: Adam LaRoche

The Nationals spent a good portion of the offseason trying to woo Prince Fielder to the nation’s capitol even though they already had a pretty good first baseman in place. That first baseman is Mike Morse, not the $16M man Adam LaRoche. LaRoche missed all but 43 games of 2012 due to a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder, an injury that completely sabotaged him at the plate (.258 wOBA in 177 PA) during his first year in Washington.

The 32-year-old LaRoche is now close to nine months out from surgery and working his way back in Spring Training. He told Mark Zuckerman that swinging the bat is not a problem (though he has yet to face live pitching), but he still hasn’t cut it loose when throwing. Since Morse can play the outfield, the Nats will have no problem fitting both men in the lineup if they make it through camp healthy and deserving of regular playing time.

Prior to the injury, LaRoche a consistent fantasy producer in terms of end-of-year starts, finishing with a ~.270 AVG, 25 HR, and 80+ RBI pretty much every season from 2005-2010. Of course he’s also a notorious second half player — .246/.324/.435 in the first half and .295/.354/.535 in the second half during his career — so he’s not all that consistent within the season. At the end of the year though, those same numbers have always been there.

Following the injury, we don’t really know what to expect. The four projections systems were carry here (RotoChamp, Bill James, ZiPS, Fans) all project between 11-15 homers with a .240-ish AVG and moderate run production (~50 RBI and ~50 runs). The strikeout (~24 K%) and walk (~10 BB%) rates are close to his career averages. Playing time projections (less than 500 PA) suggest further injury issues or heavy platooning, which isn’t hard to believe with southpaws like Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Mark Buehrle, Jon Niese, Mike Minor, and maybe even Johan Santana within the division.

Jason Heyward’s fantasy performance last season — .227 AVG, 14 HR, 42 RBI, 50 R, 20.4 K%, and 11.2 BB% — is pretty close to what LaRoche is projected to do in 2012, and he was worth just 480 points in ottoneu leagues. At first base, that kind of production is dirt cheap, the kind of player you can grab for a buck at anytime during the season. LaRoche won’t be a target on auction day, but he’s definitely the kind of player that could wind up being useful down the stretch given his continued rehab from the shoulder injury and the fact that he doesn’t hit his stride until July anyway.

Keep an eye on LaRoche’s progress during the first few months of the season. If he’s healthy and showing signs of being his former self at the plate, his second half performance could be an upgrade over whoever you have stashed at the utility spot or even first base if you missed out on the elite bats.