Sporer Report #7 – Zack’s UNGodley Start

Zack Godley enjoyed a surprise breakout season last year that the market bought into, making him a consistent top 35 starter in draft season. Once news of the humidor was finalized, he became even more appealing as we figured he’d be pitching half his games in an even better environment. After a thrashing at the hands of the Brewers on Wednesday (3.3 IP/6 ER), he’s up to 4.53 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 55.7 innings. Let’s take a look at the 28-year old righty through 10 starts and see what’s going on.

Usually we look immediately at velocity when a pitcher is struggling so let’s start there. It can be indicative of an injury, but even if it’s not signaling a health issue, it’s obviously better to have higher velocity in most cases. Godley’s is down across the board. His fastball velocity has dipped from 91.9 mph to 90.2 this year. There are also dips on all of his secondary pitches: -1.7 mph to 81.7 with the curveball, -1.1 to 88.8 with the cutter, and -2.6 to 81.4 with the change (though he barely used it last year and is using it even less this year at 5%).

Substantial drops in the swinging strike rates of the curveball and cutter are likely related to the velo dip. The curveball is down six points to 16% and the cutter is down four ticks to 10%. The result has been a five-point dip in strikeout rate to 21%. One of the key factors to Godley’s fantasy relevance was the expected strikeout rate. While the spike to 26% last year was a big jump from his career 19% mark to that point, we’d seen some promising swinging strike rates and Ks are of course sky-high across the league. His K/9 has actually only dropped 1.2 to 8.4 because of the added walks and hits he’s allowing so he’d lose 20 strikeouts off last year’s total if he threw 155 innings again.

His curve is so important and seems to have fallen off substantially in performance so let’s zero in on the pitch for a few moments. It’s his most used pitch each of the last two years at 36% and 39% usage, respectively. Only Corey Kluber’s was better last year per pitch value as it became a dominant pitch for Godley. He allowed a .153/.208/.243 line with the pitch, fanning 47% of the 242 batters who ended their plate appearance on the pitch. This year he’s at .260/.301/.396 with a 36% K rate in 103 PA (2nd-most for any curve to Lance McCullers at 120). The .697 OPS is third worst among the 25 arms with at least 50 PA ending on a curve.

I already mentioned the velo dip which isn’t an automatic killer to a pitch, but the dip may be working with other factors to make the pitch more identifiable. He’s actually gained about two inches of drop, but that isn’t automatically a positive if batters aren’t swinging at the pitch. The bottom line is that it’s just not fooling batters as much right now.

The swing rate is down eight points to 41% while the chase rate is down 11 points to 29%. That’s about five fewer chases per start based on his usage of the pitch. That might not sound like much, but it adds up. That could be a strikeout, two ground outs, and two whiffs mid at-bat. Hell, it might “only” be five whiffs or five foul balls with none of them ending a plate appearance and it’s still an important loss for Godley.

The downgraded curveball is also putting more pressure on the cutter. The usage rate is the same on the cutter, but when it’s being used is important. The biggest difference in the cutter performance this year is the ginormous walk rate it is allowing. It has surged from 8% to 22% this year, yielding a .424 OBP in 60 plate appearances. A less reliable curveball is pushing more usage of the cutter on 3-ball counts and the opposition isn’t buying it. A full 20% of his cutters thrown year have been in 3-ball counts, compared to just 12% last year. The raw number drives it home, too: he has 13 walks on the cutter in 60 PA; he had 12 in 157 last year.

So here’s where we are right now… Godley’s best pitch has been compromised in a big way as the league has adjusted to it and yet he’s still using it as a go-to pitch. Meanwhile, it’s putting pressure on second best pitch (the cutter), which hasn’t stepped up to the challenge and seemed to suit him better earlier in counts. The sinker was never that great to begin with and the changeup is used so little that I could be convinced it was a classification error on a few pitches if I didn’t see the pitch with my eyes a few times in reviewing some of his starts.

The curveball can be a tough #1 pitch given its volatility, which is probably why only Godley and McCullers use it as such, and Tyler Skaggs is the only other qualified starter with a 30% usage rate. In fact, I think invoking the name of McCullers is instructive given the volatility we’ve seen in his results over the years. Sure, some of it is health with McCullers, but I don’t think that explains away each of his bad starts over the years. When the curveball isn’t working, batters spit on it and make you come in the zone with something else or wait to see a hanging curve.

As we figure out what to do with Godley going forward, it’s important to understand exactly where he is right now. I can’t confidently slot him top 20 right now, but until yesterday, he had a 3.78 ERA. He added three quarters of a run to it with that start in Milwaukee, which does more to show just how volatile ERA still is at this point in the season than anything else. There are valid reasons for concern, but I wouldn’t sell Godley right now. First off, it’s the absolute worst time given he was just trounced plus it’s not like he’s just been obliterating your ERA all season.

Your WHIP is another story, but still, he’s not tanking your team. Even if you’re completely out based on what you’ve read here about his curveball, wait for a better opportunity to sell. He has Cincy at home and then a road trip to San Francisco coming up. He may not be what you expected at the draft table, but he will create a better selling opportunity than now and it will likely be in the near future so be patient.