Will Venable’s Power/Speed Combo

A star on the diamond and the hard court at Princeton, San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable has baseball blood lines and a diverse set of skills. Max Venable’s son earned the right field job for the Padres, and he’s showing an unprecedented blend of power and speed. Should he be on fantasy radars? Let’s try to answer that question.

The Padres selected Venable in the seventh round of the 2005 draft, and the 6-2 lefty batter split the summer of ’05 between the Rookie Level Arizona League and the Short-Season Northwest League. Overall, Venable batted .247/.321/.379, with 7.2 percent walk rate, 23.7% K rate and a .132 Isolated Power in 221 plate appearances. He also swiped six bases in seven tries.

Venable spent the 2006 campaign in the Low-A Midwest League, upping his line to .314/.389/.477 in 541 PA. He showed solid secondary skills (10.2 BB%, .163 ISO), lowered his strikeout rate (17.2 K%) and went 18/23 on the base paths, with the caveat being that he was long in the tooth for Low-A at 23 years old. Following the season, Baseball America lauded his “pure left-handed stroke and bat speed,” and predicted more power would flow from his 210 pound frame.

Instead, Venable’s pop evaporated upon making a two-level jump to the Double-A Texas League in 2007. In 572 PA, he posted a .278/.337/.373 triple-slash, with a paltry .095 ISO. Venable didn’t control the zone especially well either, walking 6.6 percent of the time (his whiff rate remained similar to ’06, at 16.3%). He at least thrived when he managed to get on base, with 21 SB in 23 attempts. BA noted that Venable added a toe-tap to his set-up between ’06 and ’07. The toe-tap, they claimed, “took his legs out of his swing.” He eliminated the trigger during the second half of the ’07 season.

In 2008, Venable moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and made significant progress. He batted .292/.361/.464 in 464 PA, drawing a walk 8.9 percent with a .172 ISO. The worthwhile trade-off for the extra thump was a higher K rate (23.3 K%). Venable didn’t do much running for the Beavers, with seven steals in 10 tries.

Will got the big league call in late August of ’08, logging 124 PA for the Padres. He hit .264/.339/.391, walking 10.5%, whiffing 19.1% and posting a .127 ISO. He only attempted two steals, getting caught once.

Last year, Venable again split the year between Portland and San Diego. In Triple-A, he authored a .260/.329/.520 line in 226 PA, with his walk and strike out rates barely changing (8.8 BB%, 23 K%). The power output was impressive (.260 ISO). With the Padres, Venable slashed .256/.323/.440 in 324 PA. His strike zone control was rough (7.7 BB%, 30.4 K%), but Venable continued to hit for power with a .184 ISO. He succeeded in six of seven steal attempts.

Heading into 2010, Venable was projected for a .249/.315/.406 line (.318 wOBA) and 7 SB by CHONE and a .249/.309/.385 (.310 wOBA) performance by ZiPS, with 9 SB. The 27-year-old is besting those forecasts so far. In 141 trips to the plate, Venable has a .240/.319/.440 line, with a 10.6% walk rate and a .200 ISO. He’s suddenly running again, too, stealing 12 bases and getting caught once.

Venable’s taking a very aggressive approach at the plate–he has swung at 36.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone this year (25-27% MLB average), up from 30.4% in 2009 and 25% in 2008. His walk rate has remained stable because he’s getting few strikes. Opposing pitchers have put just 44.8 percent of pitches within the zone against Venable (48-51% MLB average), compared to 47.8% in 2009 and 49% in 2008.

Will’s power surge has come at the expense of contact. He’s connecting 72.6% of the time in 2010 (80-81% MLB average), a decline from his 73.5% rate in 2009 and 79.7% mark in 2008. He’s punching out 37.6 percent of the time this season.

While Venable is making hard, loud contact when he puts the bat on the ball, it’s questionable if he can keep up this pace. His batting average on balls in play is .347, which is 20 points above his career average in the majors and bests his .336 minor league BABIP. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .313 BABIP for Venable.

It’s also likely that he’ll hit for less power moving forward. Venable’s minor league track record and work with the Padres from 2008-2010 suggests that he has made a concerted effort to hit with more authority, but a .200 ISO is pushing the upper bounds of what could reasonably be expected. ZiPS forecasts a .148 ISO for the rest of 2010.

Also worth considering: the Padres appear to be shielding Venable from lefty pitching, though he has started against southpaws recently with both Scott Hairston and Kyle Blanks on the DL. Venable didn’t show much a platoon split in the minors, but he has a .282 wOBA against LHP in the majors and a .344 wOBA versus righties. Keep in mind, we’re dealing with a small sample size–140 PA is hardly enough to suggest helplessness against same-side pitching.

With fewer hits falling and Venable hitting for less power, ZiPS calls for a .247/.309/.395 rest-of-season line. I think it’s possible that he bests that modest projection. If he hits around his career mark in the majors (.254/.325/.430, .335 wOBA) and continues to steal bases, Venable is a decent option in NL-only leagues.

Venable is a solid major league hitter–accounting for the constricting confines of Petco, his bat has been 13 percent better than the league average since 2008 (113 wRC+). That being said, placing faith in the Padres’ right fielder continuing his 2010 mashing would be misguided.