Why I Will Own George Springer In Every League Next Year
Coming into 2014, I was very high on George Springer. After seeing him play in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2013, I was so confident in his abilities that I wrote a column explaining why Springer was still worth drafting and holding in standard mixed leagues, even if he started the season in Triple-A.
The 24-year-old spent exactly 13 games back down in Triple-A to start the season, hitting .353/.459/.647, with eight extra-base hits and four steals. That was enough to convince the Astros to call him up and give him the everyday right-field job. At first, he struggled to adjust, hitting just .182/.262/.218 in his first 14 major-league games. As it turned out, two weeks was about all the adjusting he needed to do.
Springer’s full-season line says that he hit .231/.336/.468 in his 345 major-league plate appearances, but let’s see what that looks like without the two-week adjustment period. From May 1 on, Springer hit .242/.352/.525, swatting 20 homers in just 284 PA. By the time he was shut down in mid-July with a quad injury, he had already done enough to be the No. 60 outfielder in standard formats on the year.
In other words, he produced at such a high level for ten weeks that his entire season was mixed-league relevant. As for the future, I’m pushing in all my chips on Springer. This season, we got just a 2 1/2-month glimpse at the kind of production he provides, and even then he wasn’t as good as he can be. Next year, he could very easily be a top-15 fantasy outfielder, or even better.
The primary reason I say that is because of Springer’s speed, and the fact that it didn’t play into his 2014 fantasy production at all. Keep in mind that — up until he reached the majors — Springer has always been a center fielder. He played 247 of his 278 career minor-league games in center. Furthermore, in 2013, Springer swiped 45 bases while getting caught just eight times.
So, while those five steals he registered in 78 major-league games may not look too impressive, the steals are coming. Along those lines, I expect his batting average to improve significantly as well. Part of it is that after posting a .379 minor-league batting average on balls in play in 1,270 PA, he had a .294 BABIP in the majors. While I certainly don’t expect him to maintain a .379 BABIP in the majors, I also certainly do expect him to improve on that .294 mark.
The other aspect of my batting-average optimism ties into Springer’s approach at the plate. This passage from my January column summarizes the point well:
I’ve heard others criticize his two-strike approach, but to my eyes, he strikes out so much because he simply doesn’t change his approach at all, no matter what the count is.
Springer is up there to crush that ball, whether it’s 3-0 or 0-2. While it’s not an ideal approach for maintaining a high batting average or decent strikeout rate, I’d much rather see a young player with a high strikeout rate that comes from an aggressive mindset, instead of poor strike-zone recognition or inconsistent/flawed swing mechanics.
While Springer did strike out in a whopping 33.0% of his major-league plate appearances, don’t automatically lump him in with other high K-rate Astros like Jon Singleton, or even Chris Carter. I do expect Springer to be somewhat of a consistently high-strikeout hitter in the majors, don’t get me wrong, but I think once he learns to rein in the aggression in his approach, his K-rate should stabilize in the 25% range.
When you get down to it, it’s relatively simple. Springer was one hell of a power hitter this year, and that alone was enough to make him a significant fantasy piece. Once he starts stealing more bases, and legging out more hits, and striking out less, I honestly believe we could be looking at one of the best players in fantasy baseball, period. I’m not letting him slide past the first 15 outfielders in any mixed leagues next year.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
I love that Springer is the first player OF Roto-profile of the week.
Not sure why you’re so adamant about that babip going up. Players that strike out 33% of the time don’t usually have high babips, especially with a 15% ld %….
One of the keys to Springer becoming an elite hitter in fantasy is if he contributes 20+ SB’s on a yearly basis. I’m curious as to whether there are many other examples of a player who stole a lot of bases in the minors, has good speed, yet rarely attempted to steal once called up to MLB? Obviously pitchers/catchers are harder to steal off at the ML level, but a 75% decline in attempts seems odd to me.
I remembering read something about the Astros did not want him to steal because of an injury.
Springer had multiple leg injuries since his call-up in 2014. That appeared to be the primary cause for the lack of steals (also causing the Astros to tell him to steal less this year.)
Stealing in particular was painful for him, and during a rehab assignment stealing was a part of his aggravation of it.
After an off-season of healing, look for him to be a 25-30 SB threat next season.
Shane Victorino in his first full year in the majors (2006). 4 for 7 on steals. The following year he went 37 for 41. (Although he also didn’t steal much in the high minors.)
I can’t seeing paying for him to get more than 15-20 SB. He could steal more, but there is also the possibility that he is not successful at stealing or that his prior injury returns.
Cozart stole 30 in his last full year in AAA, never hit double digits again.
I certainly hope Springer becomes a top fantasy outfielder as he is one of my keepers in my main roto league ($10 in a $260 standard league).
But you analysis is a bit thin. It is true that Springer’s k-rate is not a product of poor plate discipline: Last year he swing at pitches outside the strike zone significantly less than average and swung at pitches in the zone more than average.
You attribute his strikeouts to his aggressiveness which you don’t really define or quantify. I’ll be more specific: Springer struck out so much because when he swung he missed more than anyone else in baseball with at least 300 plate appearances.
When Springer swung at pitches in the strike zone his contact percentage was 68.4, the lowest of 263 major league hitters. Here are the batting averages from those ranked 2nd worst to 10th worst: .168; .208; .211; .220; .196; .231; .219; .241; .199. Only one batter in the worst 16 topped .248. Brandon Barnes, who’s a lifetime .242 hitter, and most of those worst 16 has a contact rate in the zone above 75%.
If you look at pitches out of the zone, Springer has the 3rd worst contact percentage (43) and for all pitches his contact rates was the worst at 61%.
While I certainly hope Springer makes adjustments to improve his contact percentage, lower his k-rate and improve his batting average, I am less certain than you are he’ll make those adjustments this year. His k-rate went up from May to June and up marginally in July. True, he could maintain his k-rate and improve his BABIP and improve his batting average – one xBABIP calculator placed him at .310 last season and at that rate he would have batted .249 if my math is correct. But I think he’ll need to tame his k-rate if we are to see a major improvement in batting average and that is not a certainty.
Nice
It is looking like a 30 HR Chris Carter is his floor. I would not be surprised if he pulled in top 10 OF value. That being said, you have to drop him a bit in the rankings due to the fact that his value is based on potential.
I agree with Scott and would take the risk with him around the 15th OF.
Would you still be interested in him for a -1pt/K points league. He had a few solid weeks in that format, but had a lot of weeks of < 5 points for the week.
I will cut and paste your article into an article of my own entitled “Why I Will Allocate 3 Arbitration Dollars to George Springer in Every League Next Year (And Encourage Others to do the Same).”