What’s With Yunel Escobar?

On September 2nd, 2009, Yunel Escobar clubbed a ninth-inning home run against the Florida Marlins. The Atlanta shortstop took a 96 MPH Leo Nunez fastball, thrown on the outside corner, over the right field fence for his 14th jack of the season.

Escobar hasn’t gone deep since. Dating back to last year, Yunel’s homerless streak has reached 377 plate appearances. 2010 has been trying offensively for the 27-year-old — Escobar’s hitting just .242/.346/.286 in 265 PA, with a .301 wOBA and a minuscule .044 ISO.

Because of his slick D (+9.5 UZR/150), he has still been an asset to the Braves with 1.2 WAR on the season. But he’s falling short of the expectations fantasy owners had. Escobar hit a combined .301/.375/.426 over the 2007-2009 seasons, posting a .352 wOBA and a .125 ISO. ZiPS thought he’d bat .294/.365/.416 in 2010, with a .347 wOBA and a .122 ISO, while CHONE projected a .294/.369/.429 triple-slash, a .352 wOBA and a .135 ISO. What’s causing Escobar’s feeble offensive output?

Part of his slump can be explained by a .279 batting average on balls in play, well below his career .319 BABIP. Escobar is hitting infield flies 12.5% this season, compared to a 4.9% career average and the 7-8% MLB average. That doesn’t help matters, but little else has changed in his batted ball profile. Escobar’s BABIP on ground balls is .204 in 2010, compared to a career .235 average. His BABIP on fly balls is .121, while his career clip is .204. His expected BABIP is .321, suggesting he has been more of a .280 hitter than a .240’s type.

That still doesn’t explain the power outage, however. No matter what field he hits to, Escobar is showing precious little pop:

Nothing at all is happening when Escobar puts the ball in the air. He had a .426 ISO on fly balls on 2007, a .339 ISO in 2008 and a .409 ISO in 2009. This season, he’s got a .089 ISO when he lofts one. He has never been much of a power hitter, but the total lack of thump is mystifying. Escobar did have a back problem in spring training and served a DL stint for left groin strain in May, so perhaps he’s still battling injury problems.

Escobar is characteristically controlling the strike zone, with a 21.7 outside swing percentage (28.5% MLB average) and a 13.2% walk rate. And, he’ll almost certainly hit for a higher average during the rest of the season. But fantasy owners would surely appreciate it if he would end that dinger drought.