What To Do With Johnny Cueto

Ever since 2012, I’ve been waiting for Johnny Cueto to put up a monster season. At the time, I had identified some markers that compared favorably with Roy Halladay. That’s not to say I expected Cueto to become a true beast like Halladay. However, having traits in common with such an elite pitcher probably improves the likelihood of a fantasy breakout.

We were finally treated to glory with a 20 win, 242 strikeout, 2.25 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP season worth $34. He was the second most valuable pitcher per Zach Sanders, and he was arguably the most profitable (Corey Kluber is the alternative). According to FantasyPros, owners paid just $7 to acquire Cueto this season.

I think we have a good idea as to why Cueto was cheap. He’s posted a sub-3.00 ERA over parts of the last four seasons, but has also missed substantial time with various injuries including most of 2013. FanGraphs types are understandably wary of his FIP and xFIP, which are generally about a full run higher than his ERA’s. We’ll get to that in a moment. A few ugly postseason starts certainly didn’t improve his preseason value.

So let’s start with what he’s done well. As a Cy Young candidate, Cueto was a popular topic on the site this season. He averaged over seven innings a start, and only David Price threw more than his 243.2 innings. Mike Petriello noted his nasty changeup, which has continuously improved year-over-year. He’s always been comfortable mixing it in against lefties, but now he also uses it as a strikeout pitch against righties. Take a look at his pitch usage.

Beyond the success of the change, what jumps off the page is his use of six pitches. Five of those are thrown frequently. Now check out the BABIP column of his results and averages.

Cueto has earned a reputation as perhaps the best pitcher at contact management. It’s why his ERA so frequently outperforms his ERA-estimators. Brett Talley wrote on the topic during the season. He turned to a stat called sOPS+ to see how Cueto performed on different batted ball types. The result? His sOPS+ was 59, which can be read as 41 percent better than league average. We don’t know exactly why or how Cueto manages such meager contact, but we do know that it’s happening. The Reds did have a great defense last season, but not enough to explain Cueto’s dominance.

Now we’re at the hard part – what do we do with Cueto? We have a pitcher who outperforms his peripherals and tends to spend time on the disabled list. His home stadium is hitter heaven, but there’s also a chance he’ll be traded with just one season of club control remaining. As we saw with Jason Hammel, a mid-season trade is not always a good thing. On the plus side, his deep arsenal and deceptive delivery can at least partially explain his great BABIP’s.

Steamer thinks we’ll see 11 wins, 8.62 K/9, a 3.30 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and .284 BABIP. That’s a $10 pitcher. Since we only have the rudest understanding of contact management, it’s probably not surprising that Steamer has no means to recognize quality of contact allowed (beyond batted ball types).

I expect his price to vary wildly by league. In some cases, multiple owners will buy into his excellent 2014 and pay for a repeat. In other leagues, he’ll be on the avoid list and slip through under $20. As for what I think, I like his ability to pitch deeply into games when healthy – it improves his chance to earn the win. I’m wary of the factors lined against him, mostly his rocky injury history but also the chance for his ill-understood “luck” to evaporate. I’ll be much more eager to acquire him in leagues where everybody shares my doubts. He’s still a good bet to strikeout a batter per inning with a sub-3.00 ERA, so a $20 return is easily within reach.