Week Three 2-Start Pitcher Update

by
April 18, 2010

Well, this never happens!

There are no adjustments to the two-start pitchers from Friday. Since this edition usually talks about the new additions from Friday, instead this week let’s focus on the two-start pitchers at the bottom of the barrel, the ones started by the fewest amount of fantasy owners, to see if there is a diamond in the rough.

5. Brad Bergesen (started in 4% of CBS Sports leagues) – Last year in 19 starts in the majors, Bergesen had a 1.55 GB/FB ratio and a nifty 2.34 BB/9, which led to a 3.43 ERA. But Bergesen had a 75.2 LOB% and an 8.3 HR/FB rate, which led to both a higher FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.42). In his two starts in 2010, he has a 0.47 GB/FB ratio and a 3.52 BB/9. Combined with a 15.8 HR/FB mark, Bergesen’s ERA is an ugly 11.74 in 7.2 IP. It is understandable that owners are reluctant to activate him for two starts this week. But if Bergesen can recapture his ground ball rate, he is worthy of a roster spot.

4. Kyle Kendrick (2%) – A member of the Phillies’ rotation, if Kendrick can give the team innings, he has an excellent chance of picking up wins. But his K rate is poor, his WHIP is nothing special and his ERA is trending upward. The only thing Kendrick has going for him is the chance for wins. And how long will he be in the rotation, especially once Joe Blanton returns from the disabled list?

3. Scott Olsen (1%) – In both 2007 and 2008, Olsen had identical 4.95 xFIPs in seasons where he made 33 starts each. Last year, Osen was limited to 11 games, but he had a 4.91 xFIP. It seems pretty apparent where Olsen’s true talent level is. Olsen has some upside in Ks but he is not a mixed league option except in deep leagues.

2. Charlie Morton (1%) – Coming into the year, some viewed Morton as a potential deep sleeper candidate. In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, Morton has a 12-4 record with a 2.15 ERA. He allowed 44 BB , picked up 134 Ks and allowed just 3 HR in 150.2 IP. But Morton has been pounded in two starts this season. The big problem has been the gopher ball, as he allowed 4 HR in 9.1 IP, and a .429 BABIP is not helping, either. While his ERA is 13.50, his xFIP is 3.34. Morton has a 9.00 K/BB ratio and despite two ugly starts, he is an intriguing option with upside.

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1. Craig Stammen (0%) – Okay, I admit I am intrigued by a pitcher who absolutely no one wants in their starting lineup. But unlike Morton, there is little to recommend Stammen. In parts of three seasons in Triple-A, he has a 5-7 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.3 K/9. On the plus side, Stammen has done a nice job of getting ground balls in his brief major league career. He has a 1.54 GB/FB ratio in 112 IP, continuing his trend from the minors (54.3 GB%) of keeping the ball down. It is not that Stammen has no chance, but a guy with a 3.94 K/9 ratio has zero room for error.





 

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