Week 6 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 6 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Beckett, T. Hudson, Pelfrey, Blackburn and Sonnanstine.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Price, Lester, Hanson and Liriano.

Of the new starters let’s look at Mike Pelfrey. The good news is that Pelfrey has pitched well in two of his last three starts. The bad news is that he still has a 6.06 ERA and both of his ERA estimators are over 4.50, higher than his last three seasons.

Pelfrey’s game plan has always been to pound the ball low in the strike zone. Last year he added a splitter to his arsenal, which already included a sinker. But this year he has gotten away from that style of pitching and the result is a career-high 40.9 FB%. In his last three starts, Pelfrey has 29 FB and 23 GB.

Last year when Pelfrey won 15 games, he really took advantage of his home park. He was 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA in Citi Field and 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA in road parks. This year sees a similar big split. Pelfrey is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at Citi Field and 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA in road parks.

This week, Pelfrey has road starts in Colorado and Houston. While neither park is playing as a strong offensive park so far in 2011, both have been hitter-friendly in the past. Given Pelfrey’s tendency to struggle away from Citi Field, it should be an easy decision to leave him on the bench this week.

Last week’s Sunday look was Jorge de la Rosa and the advice was to start him despite the two road starts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Diamondbacks and Giants:

12 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 13 Ks, 0 W, 2 QS