Week 13 Two-Start Pitchers Update
Here is the latest update to Week 13 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update: Floyd
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: none
Well all right then, let’s take a look at Gavin Floyd. When you think of consistent pitchers, Floyd probably isn’t the first guy to come to mind. But since 2009 here are his xFIPs:
3.64
3.69
3.71
Still, Floyd does not seem to be the same pitcher so far in 2011 that he was in the recent past. His K/9 is down, as is his BB/9. Fortunately, his BABIP is 46 points lower than it was a season ago. Looking at his Pitch Types, we have some classification issues going on. Floyd has always relied heavily on his slider but this year he is shown with a cutter rather than a slider. Both pitches were/are strongly positive.
Where we notice a difference is with his curve. It was a great pitch for him in 2009 and solidly above average last year. So far in 2011, it’s right around average. Historically, Floyd has struggled with his off-speed pitches early in the season, but here by late June you would expect to have had him already worked out those kinks.
Instead, Floyd has allowed 10 ER in his last 13 IP and in his last five games he has a 6.08 ERA. He has been victimized by the gopher ball this season. He has allowed 4 HR in his last 26.2 IP and overall this season he’s surrendered 11 HR in 94 IP. Last year he gave up just 14 HR in 187.1 IP.
Floyd has really struggled at home this year, where he’s served up 6 HR balls in 38 IP and carries a 5.21 ERA. Overall, he shows no preference for home or road, with his lifetime ERAs by that split within 0.20 in his career. But this year he has done his best work in road parks, where he has a 3.70 ERA in 56 IP.
This week he has two road starts, as he squares off against the Rockies and Cubs. And while this may seem like real trouble for a pitcher with gopher ball issues, the Rockies are only fifth in the NL in HR at home and the Cubs rank 10th.
There are more negatives than positives for Floyd this week, so if you have the depth you should consider giving him the week off.
From my experience watching Floyd pitch, his curveball really seems to come around when the weather gets hot and humid. He’s historically been a slow starter and the weather might have something to do with it. Perhaps he’s been trying not to rely so much on his curveball in the beginning of the season when the temperatures are cooler. The weather hasn’t really gotten hot (I mean like 90 degrees hot) here in Chicago, except for a few days. He had one of his best starts of the season against Tampa on April 10. It was hot as hell here that day.