Waiver Wire: Trusting Surprise Performances

It sometimes takes a while for fantasy owners to buy into surprise performances. There are plenty of reasons for this. For one, smart owners are always preaching sample size, and are willing to be patient on a surprise player before buying in. There’s also the issue of career performance to date. If a player has a career .258/.317/.444 slash line, it’s going to take a lot of convincing for an owner to believe when that player hits .277/.370/.565. Those, coincidentally, happen to be Ryan Raburn’s stats. Based on what he’s done this year, it might be time to start buying in to his performance.

2B/OF Ryan Raburn 23% owned in CBSSports.com leagues

Finally freed from Detroit, Raburn has put up a great year with the Indians. While manager Terry Francona was hesitant to give Raburn playing time earlier in the year, he’s started to be used more consistently. One of the biggest reasons for Raburn’s new-found success has been his patience. Raburn’s 11.4% walk rate is easily a career-high. He’s managed to be more selective, as both his O-Swing% and Z-Swing% has decreased. While he’s making less contact, he’s been able to increase his line-drive rate. While his .322 BABIP is a little higher than his .315 career-average, it’s not at a level where owners should be concerned about a huge amount of regression. Given that he’s likely available at second base even though he’s mainly played in the outfield makes him an intriguing spot-starter at a tough position.

It’s not all good, of course. Raburn’s power seems like a pretty big fluke. His 26.0% HR/FB rate is bound to drop. Raburn can still provide some power the rest of the year (ZiPS expects four more long balls), but regression is coming in that area. Still, the overall slash line is strong, and Raburn could emerge as a second baseman that won’t kill you in any major category aside from steals.

C Devin Mesoraco 25% owned in CBSSports.com leagues

Devin Mesoraco is in a similar position. His previous performances have failed to generate much buzz, and he hasn’t received a full-time role until recently. With Ryan Hanigan on the disabled list, Mesoraco has finally started to show why he was considered a top-15 prospect. Since the start of July, Mesoraco has hit .284/.314/.481 in 24 games. That’s a small sample, of course, but it shows Mesoraco still has some potential if he ever gets extended playing time.

That’s no guarantee with Dusty Baker around. Baker has already said he expects Mesoraco to split time with Hanigan once Hanigan is over his wrist injury. That could happen as soon as this week. But aside from a fluky 2010, Hanigan has been spotty over his career. There’s also no telling how his wrist will respond given that he had a setback during his rehab already. If Mesoraco manages to retain most of the playing time, at least early on, he would provide some cheap power at the catcher spot. He’s not a full-time fantasy starter moving forward, but it’s promising to see him prove he still has some value in keeper leagues.