Updating the Rankings: Outfielders (OF2)
Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.
Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.
Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.
What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.
For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Carlos Gonzalez?
Oh God, nevermind.
manny ramirez was hitting .400 when he went on the dl. not exactly mediocre play
He meant Lind was playing mediocre baseball and that Ramirez is aging/
Brett Gardner should be right next to Bourn. They have the exact same zips ROS in every way. Personally, i’d rather have Gardner due to the vastly superior lineup.
You have a point sir. Only wrinkle is playing time once Grando comes back, but he looks to have taken that full-time role now, hasn’t he?
I think he’s earned an everyday role once Grandy comes back. Even before he got hurt, Gardy was starting to play against some Lefties. Girardi said he considers Gardy a full time player, and he just wanted to get Thames AB’s early in the season.
Girardi and Cashman <3 Gardner, so even if he struggles, there gonna stick with him to try and build up his trade value to the max.
Also, with nick johnsons injury, Gardy may be given the 2 hole over swisher. And given NJ's injury history, theres a chance he sticks at #2 for a long time, which would catapult the R/RBI so far ahead of bourn its not even funny.
Could someone from FanGraphs breakdown Adam Jones for the masses? The dude supposedly has a ton of tools but looks absolutely miserable on the field. Is it worth hanging onto this guy just for the upside or time to cut bait? There’s just no evidence here that he’s going to put it all together, right?
You mentioned Jay Bruce as having potential for OF1 in the last segment, but then he doesn’t get a mention in OF2?
I own Cuddyer as my backup OF but Kubel is on the wire. Do you see either of these guys outperforming the other?
For his career Kubel hit better in the Metrodome than on the road and the split was very pronounced last year. This led some to project that Kubel’s production would be negatively impacted by the move to Target Field and his stats so far seem to some to support that. Of course, he has been far better vs RHP and thus better suited to a daily transaction league (he’s even been sat vs some LHP this year). Cuddyer is a plug and play guy and starting for a lot of good fantasy squads.
Completely unrelated, but:
I was just offered A-Rod and Castro for Zimmerman and Garza. So, essentially, Rodriguez and an open roster spot for Zimmerman and Garza. Yay or nay?
1 year or keeper?
One year.
Zimm & Garza are the real deal. So is Arod to a point but, too much is being given up to compensate for the difference between Arod & Zimm (which will be practically nothing come year’s end).
I’m trying to replace Garza with Scherzer or Buchholz.
So you have Victorino after all these guys? I mean, he’s pretty similar to guys like McCutchen or Span, even if he hasn’t been as hot thus far (non-power wise).
Why on earth would you try and replace Garza with Max or Buch? Hit accept and laugh.
So A-Rod > Zimm and Garza? Given that I also have Josh Johnson, Anderson, Danks, Hughes, Strasburg and Sanchez, am I even more stupid having not accepted yet?
I think you could use the pitcher and I think the difference between ARod and Zimm by years end may just be R/RBI and 10 stolen bases. I take the deal with Garza.
So I didn’t take the trade. But, with the same owner, I ended up trading Scherzer for Beckham.
Does Adam Dunn play for the Sox or Cubs?
both. thanks tho.
Anyone else suspect Austin Jackson’s rankings would be a lot higher had he been trade to the Yankees and not away from them? What a story he is, or at least would be if he didn’t reflect poorly on Brian Cashman- the guy who is teflon here.
His ranking would be a lot higher if he wasn’t sporting an inflated BABIP and a high K rate. Regression candidate. I wouldn’t decide on that trade a month in to this season.
To his credit, Austin Jackson has kept the Ks in check recently. In the article at the end of April, his K% was 32% and it now sits at 28.3%. Still much too high, but a good first step.
my outfield has three of those guys and Braun. I feel pretty good about it.
I was offered Kinsler for Heyward in a keeper league. Take it?
absolutely. in any format. without a doubt.
Chase Headley is a third baseman. Hasn’t played outfield all year.
kinsler for heyward? even with all the games kinsler misses thats a no brainer
Since I can’t make a thread in the forum, I’d like to address the main problem with having Quentin as a staple in a league. His BABIP has been, and has been maintained, at such an horrendous level, what is to be done about it?
Is it the weak wrists, the change in O-Swing %, the change in BB:K, or LD/GB/FB% that should have any owners worried? As much as sabremetrics has done most of us in the past, it’s surely screwing us over with the name of the Q-Man. We would like to delude ourselves into thinking that his 2Bs and HRs are some positive sign, when maybe they are just his non-weak flies finding holes or their ways over the fence? What’s the story, Morning Qlory?