Up… Up… Upton and Away

The first overall pick of the 2005 draft, out of a Virginia high school, had an up-and-down first full season in the Major Leagues. Justin Upton’s final line of .250/.353/.463 in 356 at-bats does not even begin to scratch the surface on his potential.

The infielder-turned-outfielder could very well explode in 2009 with a year of experience under his belt. He showed a willingness to take a walk (especially for a 20 year old) with a 13.2 BB%. His strikeout rate at 34 K% was high but that should improve as he gains experience facing star pitching, as he had fewer than 1,000 minor league at-bats before securing a full-time Major League job. He has a lot of room to improve upon his contract rate of 68.09%, which is below even Adam Dunn’s 71.77% and Russell Branyan’s 68.54%.

Thanks to quick bat speed, Upton generates excellent power on his 6’2”, 205 lbs frame. He slugged 15 home runs in 2008, with an ISO of .213, and should continue to build upon his power numbers as he matures. Upton also has the necessary speed to steal 20-30 bases, if he is motivated to do so.

One thing to be mindful of with Upton in 2009 is his home/road split from 2008, which included a .321/.407/.632 line at home and a .169/.291/.271 line on the road. You definitely want him in the line-up when the Diamondbacks are playing in Arizona. It’s also hard to know if Upton’s oblique strain, which kept him out of the line-up for seven weeks, was affecting him prior to his disabled list trip. It could have been a factor in his .123/.305/.215 line in June.

You certainly do not want to select Upton near the top of your fantasy draft, but he is a solid option later in the draft when you are looking for a player who should produce average numbers across the board – with the potential to absolutely explode. There is no where to go but up for this talented, young player.