Treating Hitter Auction Values Like Model Scores

It is always odd to me how fantasy drafters come up with their auction values. “Oh, he’s a $10 SS at least!”. Ok, but, where did you come up with that number? If you load up the FanGraphs auction calculator with your league settings and Steamer projections, you will see exact dollar values that you can use to aid you in auction drafts. I write the word, “aid” because you will very rarely get the player you want for the price the auction calculator spits out. Sometimes you are lucky and get the player for under what the auction calculator thinks he’s worth, and sometimes you push the “Outbid By $1” button a little too much.

Regardless of whether your bid falls below the mark, above it, or right on the mark, the amount you paid cannot be evaluated until the end of the season. But, looking back at last season’s projections versus last season’s actuals can teach us a few things and if we were operating our fantasy team like we were operating a business, we’d all be sitting in the conference room drinking bad coffee and going over the fiscal year. Hopefully, someone brought in donut holes. In this post, I’ll look at 2022 steamer preseason projection values (hitters only) versus 2022 end-of-season values and make comparisons.

When using the auction calculator, a price is created utilizing z-scores of player projections within the player pool based on your league settings. The calculator is saying, “Here is the price you should pay for Cedric Mullins based on what Steamer projects he will do and relative to all the other players in the league and based off of your specific league.” If you would like a refresher on how the auction calculator works, read this post I wrote last year.

It’s good to recall how these values are created. But remember, these are projections and projections should always be compared to the actuals in order to evaluate performance. To create the visual below, I created deciles from all of 2022’s projected auction values. In this case, decile 1 represents the most valuable group of players according to steamer projections and our auction calculator. I then merged in the actual value earned from those players and compared the projected average value per decile with the actual value returned.

Here is a summary of the values in table form with the difference between projections and actuals listed as the “Diff”. This would, in statistical terms, be the inverse of the residuals.

First, you might think the expected high-dollar players (decile 1) should have the most accurate projections. But 2022 players like Ozzie Albies (proj: $20, act: $-6) get hurt and players like Juan Soto (proj: $37, act: $14) have an off year. It’s bound to happen. Second, anything below decile 6 is probably a crap shoot. Finally, and most importantly, deciles 4, 5, and 6 performed well from a projection accuracy standpoint. Being within a $3 difference is good.

Another way to look at this would be to identify the deciles where value was most often under-projected:

Everyone in the conference room loves bullet points!:

– How to return a profit
While the bar chart would tell you that projections are over-valuing in decile 1 by about $5 on average, we also see that when compared to deciles 2 and 3, you had a better chance of returning a profit in decile 1. Again, as pointed out by the yellow cell in the “Projected vs. Actual Deciles” table, starting at decile 4 and working your way down gave you the best opportunity to return a profit.

– Don’t over spend in decile 4
Here’s a snap shot of the distribution of projected values of players classified in decile 4:

No player in this decile was expected to do better than $1. This can be interpreted as players who are very close to average were (in 2022) accurately projected as such. If the auction calculator values a player at $-2 and you pay $2, chances are the projection is right and you aren’t going to turn a profit. In other words, decile 4’s valuations were the most accurate in 2022 and is the best place to pay $1 and return $1.

– Take your $1 shots, but don’t go above $1
You’ll notice that 100% of players in deciles 9 and 10 turned a profit. But, when the example is Lucius Fox (proj: $-33, act: $-20) you can see that these are typically players who were not even projected to play, and then were given a few at bats. However, there are special circumstances such as Brendan Donovan (proj: $-38, act: $3), Jon Berti (proj: $-32, act: $6), and Taylor Ward (proj: $-33, act: $14). These are the types of players who can take your team to the top of your league but identifying them pre-season can be very challenging.

Before you throw out some crazy number in an auction draft because that’s what sounds right, Price is Right style, make sure you are giving yourself some sort of jumping point. Use the FanGraphs auction calculator, don’t forget to tweak it’s settings to match your league, decile the projected values and spread your targets around accordingly. If that doesn’t work, just go with $1, Bob!