Time for a Trip to the Doctor?

One of the hardest things to figure out in baseball is if a declining older player has anything left. Fantasy managers are left wondering what the doctors are saying, if there are physical or mental ailments to blame, or if the player is just done. Two aging DHs are currently facing their own struggles, and though ZiPS is pessimistic about both, their cases are not the same.

David Ortiz – Much has been written about Big Papi, and R.J. Anderson did a great writeup just a couple weeks ago. Let this be an update, as Ortiz has been the subject of much publicized conjecture in just the last week. Brian Costello wondered aloud, in the New York Post, if Ortiz was really 33 as his birth certificate said. A scout cited that he was David Arias when he was drafted, and that therefore the chances of his birth certificate being accurate were “zero.” The same scout said that we are seeing a 40-year-old man flailing away when we watch Ortiz. Hyperbole aside, there’s no way Ortiz is falsifying his age more than a year or two in the wrong direction. He’s not going to halve his OPS in one year, even if he’s really 35 instead of 33. And yes, even if he is a big man.

Anderson did wonder if something was physically wrong with Ortiz, and that is always the main concern with aging sluggers. So the Red Sox doctors recently did a full checkup and famously gave Ortiz some eye drops and he responded that his dry eyes were not keeping him from performing at his peak. Some bat speed issues might be at play in his reduced contact rate in the zone – just look at how many fastballs pitchers are choosing to send his way. He’s seeing 4% more fastballs, which seems to suggest that pitchers think he’s not getting around.

But June has been kind to Ortiz, and his .300/.333/.500 slash line is reason for some optimism. Maybe the mental and psychological barriers were the barriers that held the most weight, and a rebound is in order. Since Anderson checked in with Ortiz, he’s swung at fewer pitches outside the zone, and his O-Swing % is regressing to the mean. Perhaps his other numbers will also begin regressing to the mean.

Travis Hafner – The ‘other’ big struggling DH was brought up in the comments under Anderson’s take on Ortiz, and for good reason. His sore shoulder had him currently on the DL and his manager wasn’t sure when he’d be back in town. Despite his good start to the season (.268/.358/.563 has to be counted as good in the face of his .628 OPS showing last year), ZiPS is pessimistic about his slugging and has him down for .264/.379/.491 and 11 home runs over the rest of the year.

Can we be more optimistic? I think so. First, the bad signs are not so bad. Hafner is reaching right now, and his 25.3% O-Swing% is a career high. Why is this not so worrisome? Even when Pronk was struggling last year, he only swung at 18.1% of pitches outside the zone. Where Ortiz’s reaching was getting worse, Pronk is only now, suddenly reaching. Also, he’s making contact on his reaches – his O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are at career highs as well.

He’s seeing the ball well, it seems. His BABIP is actually low (.298 this year, .320 career), and he’s putting the ball in play. He’s hitting a career high in fly balls (48%), and his HR/FB rate is back up to his pre-2008 levels (20%). His line drive percentage is a little low (17.3%), but his career rate is not great (19.9%), so this doesn’t seem incredibly out of line.

Sometimes we over-rate what we hear about a player’s physical problems, which might be the case for both of these big DHs. Yeah, they may not play every day, and yes they may be in decline. But in Pronk’s case, since he’s come back off the DL, he’s put up a double and a home run in eight at-bats in consecutive days. That’s what Hafner is anyway, and in a league of any depth beyond mixed leagues with short benches, owners should be happy with him this year. It’s not like he cost much.