Thursday’s Streamer Starters

I may hate head-to-head leagues, but I know that some of you are in championship weeks and could use a one-stop look through the pitchers coming up, especially Thursday’s starters so you can be ready when the clock strikes 3:01 am Wednesday night. You are doing that, right? Or you can stream a day in advance, if you’re no night owl. We’ll get the Weekend’s streamers for you before Thursday.

Thursday
Shallow
Tommy Hanson v MIA
His arm looks shot. His velocity is down. He’s throwing fewer fastballs than ever before. We’ve got writers talking about sitting him for good. It might be all those sliders coming home to roost. But you know why I like Hanson on Thursday? He’s up against a bad Miami lineup, and his velocity was up a tiny tick in his last time out. He might even be playing for his postseason rotation spot. And he’s not good enough that the Braves will sit him to make sure he’s fine for the postseason, not at this point. So he’s likely to make his start, and even if he’s only likely to throw five innings and change, all it takes is a few runs against Jacob Turner, who has struck out nine against four walks and allowed eight runs in his last three starts combined.

Chris Capuano @ SD
Capuano is known for his home/away splits (3.10, 1.12 vs 4.36, 1.28), but San Diego is even cozier than Chavez Ravine. Cappy might be on your waiver wire because he has a five-ish ERA since the beginning of July, but his underlying statistics haven’t been terrible. His walk rate has improved, actually. June had some BABIP issues (.357) and September has had some home-run-luck issues (15.8% HR/FB). His fastball velocity is fine (in this case his sinker). Oh and it’s the Padres, in San Diego.

Mixed
Casey Kelly
Well now we’ve recommended both sides of a matchup. Go deep enough and that’s what happens. After Kelly’s debut, it seemed like there were still plenty of questions about his stuff. Those questions remain. He has a big league curveball, and an above-average swinging strike rate built upon that pitch. His fastball is okay, and his changeup does the job of giving batters a different look. So far it looks like he might be able to use good control and grounders to make it all work, even if it’s not quite ace-like stuff. Certainly with the mostly punchless Dodgers at home, he should be fine.

Ervin Santana v SEA
The big Erv gets the Mariners at home, and maybe that’s all you had to say. Certainly, his reliance on a fastball/slider combination has left him prone to platoon splits (6.03 vs LHB, 4.77 vs RHB this season). But over the last two months, his strikeout rate has soared, his walk rate has plummeted… and of course his BABIP dropped too. Mariners are bad against all pitchers (86 wRC+), but even worse against righties (83 wRC+). Santana’s platoon splits make him a little risky, but he’s always liked pitching at home (3.77, 1.21 career) where his mistakes end up leaving the park less often.

Deep
Patrick Corbin
Corbin has an average-ish swinging strike rate (8.7%), strong control (2.23 BB/9) and an average-ish ground-ball rate (45.8%), and all of these things were true in the minor leagues. They don’t make him a great streamer by themselves, though. And here I will quote a stat that I have never quoted for a matchup: Corbin has a 3.15 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP against the Giants. Here’s why I think it might be relevant for once: all of those three starts came this year against the Giants, since August first. It’s not a career of starts against the Giants over five different years with different players in each lineup, it’s three starts this year. Here’s to another.

Wily Peralta @ CIN
After a great stretch of control (13 strikeouts versus six walks in 21 innings counts as great for Peralta, who never once managed a league-average walk rate in the high minor leagues), Peralta fell apart against the Nationals. Too bad the Nationals have a below-average walk rate, so that one was probably on Peralta. The good news is that, despite a bad zone rate, Peralta actually has an above-average F-Strike percentage, which is the most predictive control peripheral. Look past the mediocre swinging strike and strikeout rates, and the fact that it looks like the Reds at home and a bad matchup. Hold his ground-ball rate close, and remember that the Reds have clinched and are likely to rest any one of their position player veterans on any given day.