Throwing Heat Week 24

Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”

Cal Quantrill, CLE
Last three starts: 2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 19.0 K%

Let me ask you this, is Quantrill just Plesac part two? As a starter on the surface, his stats look good with a 3.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP but much like Plesac, he relies on stellar command. This is what Cleveland does with their pitchers. They teach them how to maximize their potential based on precise command and location. Nothing wrong with that. The issue is, what if the command goes? What does he have to rely on?

As a starter Quantrill only has a 20% strikeout rate. Not bad, but not good either. He has a very low SwStr% of 8.9% and an okay CSW rate of 24.8%. The highest SwStr% he has on any pitch is his slider at 13.3% which is below league average. What I am trying to get at here is that he doesn’t have great stuff. Great command sure, but not great stuff.

Eno Sarris recently did a research piece on new metrics Stuff+, Command+, and Pitching+. In the research, he found that command is very finicky and isn’t really predictive. Just because a pitcher has great command one year doesn’t always mean he will the following year. Whereas stuff is a lot more sticky. We have a prime example in Zach Plesac. Exceptional command last year, not so much this year. You can read his piece here if you subscribe to The Athletic. Moving forward I would ride him until the end but next season I would be suspect.

Nestor Cortes Jr, NYY
Last three starts: 2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 33.3 K%

Nestor Cortes Jr has been unreal so far this season. In 60 innings as a starter, he has produced a 2.70 ERA, 24.6 K%, and 1.03 WHIP. It does come with a .240 BABIP, 90.0 LOB%, and 4.22 FIP. Perhaps the numbers are a bit behind though because you do have to take into account the fact that he messes with delivery timing and arm angles. Now there is no real way to measure this but he does have a solid fastball and great utilization of his pitches. Is he someone I would buy into for the future? Likely not. Someone to have on your roster until regression hits? Definitely.

Ranger Suarez, PHI
Last three starts: 1.59 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 30.4 K%

Ranger Suarez’s last six starts have been very, very good. In his last six starts, he has a 2.14 ERA, 53.2 GB%, has allowed one home run along with an exceptional 2.1 Barrel% against. It’s been an interesting season for Ranger as he was at one point the Phillies closer and now has become their number three starter. The bad part for Phillies fans is that they could really use him in their bullpen as well.

Suarez has relied on inducing weak contact for success and he has been phenomenal at doing so. He mainly throws three pitches in a sinker, changeup, and four-seam. None of them have a wRC+ against over 68 and a wOBA over .265. In fact, all of his pitches have a groundball rate over 50%. With all of that, his changeup has a 20.1 SwStr% which means he also has a true swing and miss pitch.

It’s hard to poke holes in Ranger’s profile. Besides the high LOB% and low BABIP he seems to have it all and he just sort of came out of nowhere. Plus his name is probably in the top tier in all of baseball. Ranger Suarez should be a solid piece to your rotation the rest of this season and even next season.

Antonio Senzatela, COL
Last three starts: 3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 18.3 K%

What if I were to tell you that Antonio Senzatela has seven straight quality starts in a row? Pretty wild right? In those seven starts, Antonio has a 2.60 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 50.7 GB%. Here’s the issue, he only has a 16.7 K% and 4.27 SIERA in those starts. Senzatela doesn’t have much going on besides some weak contact, none of his pitches are overwhelming, and he does have to pitch in Coors Field. I struggle to believe in Senzatela as should you.