Throwing Heat Week 2
Baseball is happening! I decided for the entire season to run a weekly article on pitchers who have been “heating up.” I will dive into what it could mean for the pitcher and what you should do with them. This should be a captivating concept because it will be pitchers of all levels, anywhere from aces to pitchers you would have never drafted. That’s what it’s all about, catching players as they improve and acting on it before anyone else can realize. Welcome to “Throwing Heat!”
Joe Musgrove, SDP
Last two weeks: 15.0 IP 0.00 ERA 0.20 WHIP
This is your reminder that Joe Musgrove has now pitched 15 innings without giving up a run. He is your MLB FIP leader (early I know)! But most importantly Joe Musgrove just pitched the first no-hitter in San Diego Padres history. Congratulations Joe!
Musgrove is doing some interesting things so far this season. He got to leave Pittsburgh and has now ditched that horrible four-seam.
| Year | Slider | Cutter | Curveball | Four-Seam | Changeup | Sinker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 24.2% | 6.4% | 19.9% | 26.9% | 10.7% | 11.9% |
| 2021 | 26.8% | 24.7% | 18.9% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 6.8% |
He is gracing us with increased usage on all of his breaking balls making fantasy baseball Twitter rejoice. What’s actually interesting and completely unsustainable is that he hasn’t walked a single batter this season. He has only physically hit one. Joe is doing everything you want, enjoy the ride.
Tyler Mahle, CIN
Last two weeks: 9.0 IP 2.00 ERA 1.11 WHIP
Mr. Mahle is rocking the same three pitches that made him successful last season, a four-seam fastball, slider, and split-finger. One notable difference so far this season is his rise in velocity. Last season his four-seam fastball averaged 93.9 MPH and so far this season it’s at 95.2 MPH. Increased velocity is typically a good thing!
The best thing about Mahle is his ability to command his pitches. He has always had great command and consistently paints the edges with his fastball. This helps him not only get called strikes but it helps set up his breaking pitches. Likely the reason he is currently 7th in strikeout rate with a whopping 41 K%.
Trevor Rogers, MIA
Last two weeks: 10.0 IP 1.80 ERA 1.10 WHIP
Hello neighbor! Bad joke? Hopefully someone gets it. Rogers was a bit wild in his first start but was able to absolutely dominate the New York Mets. His fastball was unbelievable against them and the entire Mets lineup looked completely lost, worse than a deer in headlights. His fastball induced 10 whiffs and 11 called strikes finishing with a 49 CSW% rate. That’s insanely good. That CSW% was better than deGrom’s in that game who had a 41.0 CSW rate (albeit he did have 20 whiffs).
Rogers has always had strikeout potential and his ceiling depends on the walks. Last year he had a 10.0 BB% and throughout the minors it hovered around 8.0%. Games where he is on he is beyond lethal as you can see from his stat line against the Mets: 6.0 innings pitched, zero earned runs, and 10 strikeouts. If you have him, hold on and keep a watch on his command.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA
Last two weeks: 12.0 IP 1.50 ERA 0.83 WHIP
Sandy has come out red hot to start the season. The crazy thing is this was against two prominent offenses in the St. Louis Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Rays. He is another pitcher where his fastball velocity is up compared to last season. Sandy is known for his power sinker that averaged 96.4 MPH last season. This season it has topped out at 99.5 MPH and averaged 97.4 MPH. This has caused his sinker to have more vertical movement increasing it from 21.5 inches to 22.4 inches. His already lethal sinker is becoming virtually unhittable.
When you see improvements in velocity and movement typically it leads to more strikeouts. In his two starts he has put up seven and ten strikeouts. His SwStr% is up to 16.4% and his CSW rate has risen to 34.5%. Of course none of these stats are stabilized as of yet but this is what we do, we love to react anyway. Sandy is a fantastic pitcher who could get you a ton of innings.
Steven Matz, TOR
Last two weeks: 12.1 IP 1.46 ERA 0.89 WHIP
This one hurts my soul. Deep down I am crying inside. As a Mets fan, I was worried this would happen with Matz. The left-handed pitcher has decided to mix in his slider and changeup more resulting in some really fantastic results. Against the Texas Rangers he was able to take advantage of their free-swinging lineup and induced nine strikeouts focusing on his changeup. In his second outing, the Los Angeles Angels are more of a contact lineup and he was able to induce weak contact using his slider.
Matz has always had the potential to be a solid pitcher, he just needed to be used correctly. The main issue with Matz is health. He has only eclipsed 150 innings twice in his six-year career. It’s hard to tell how real this is, it might be wise to grab him and hold on because if he clicks, he could be great. If he doesn’t, it won’t cost you anything.
Matz’s stats are buoyed by his domination of the lowly Rangers. A quick peek at his second game, while very good outcomes, shows he isn’t as pretty as we think.
Weak contact (6% drop in EV) from 1st to 2nd start. He was good against a good lineup.
This is about long-term viability, not one game. The Angels line wasn’t pretty. I’m not saying he hasn’t been good, but there isn’t enough yet to say this is real and not just a hot streak. That is what people are looking to avoid in leagues: a false flag.
The article is literally about pitchers who are hot right now. Feels like an extremely appropriate place to discuss Matz given the aim of the column.
My comment is literally about the Matz who is hot right now. Feels like an extremely appropriate place to discuss Matz given the aim of the column. Do you have anything to actually add to the conversation or are you just one of those people that thinks stating the obvious is news? Because my point clearly was related to Simione’s “It’s hard to tell how real this is, it might be wise to grab him and hold on because if he clicks, he could be great. If he doesn’t, it won’t cost you anything.” I expressed that the Angels start wasn’t the best example you want to bet on because it wasn’t a dominant game as in the Rangers. For fantasy relevance, some leagues can’t just pick up a guy willy-nilly so betting on a historically terrible pitcher isn’t a solid bet after 2 hot starts.
Agreed. Not to mention that he pitches in the AL east. Typical early season hot pickup that fades as the year goes on and blows up your ratios before you cut him.