Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: June 20th, 2024

Welcome to another installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

The data for this article reflects games played through June 19th and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity. 

Walker Buehler’s dip in fastball velocity corresponded with a move to the IL due to a hip issue. In his first eight games back from Tommy John surgery, Buehler has struggled to return to form. A quick calculation of hits per nine innings (H*9/IP) shows that he’s getting hit more often in 2024:

A positive aspect of his return has been seen in his control, as his BB% is at a low 6.0%. However, his Stuff+ metrics are down significantly from where they stood in 2020 and 2021.

It is not uncommon for Nathan Eovaldi’s velocity to fluctuate significantly throughout the season:

He’s had a solid year and this doesn’t seem like a red flag. Mitch Keller has been on a great run since May and while his velocity has been trending down, his four-seamer usage is up, which may cause decreased velocity. Colin Rea is having a career year as measured by ERA (3.29), but his xERA (5.16) may indicate some luck. He’s coming off a 2023 season in which he threw a career-high 124.2 IP. Patrick Sandoval’s average velocity on the year is above where it was in any previous season and he may be struggling to maintain the increase as the innings pile up. He has been getting BABIP’d (.342) while also walking batters at his typical above-average rate (9.6% vs. MLB average: 8.3%).

Sean Manaea’s velocity may be up, but so is his BB%. He’s reached a career-high 9.6%. He has dialed the usage of his four-seamer way back to 10.2% from 56.2% in 2023 and has relied much more heavily on his sinker (39.9%). Take a look at this wild-pitch usage chart:

Using the four-seamer less has allowed Manae to add some velocity, but he’s not yet averaging the 93.6 MPH he reached in 2023.

Luis Gil’s return from Tommy John has come with a steady dose of 96 MPH fastballs, but he reached back for something extra on June 14th against the Red Sox when he averaged 98 MPH as measured by Statcast. His four-seamer has been all over leaderboards and appears to be getting better as the season continues.

Nick Martinez sneaks into this list because he has bounced back and forth between reliever and starter. The three recent appearances in the table above are relief appearances and his velocity has crept up as he gets more comfortable with a defined role. He looks much better in 2024 as a reliever than he does as a starter:

Trevor Rogers has been trying to match his velocities from 2022-2023, but the overall trend continues downward.

Rogers has struggled to get swinging strikes on his fastball and his Statcast Whiff% encompasses that. At only 25.1%, he’s well below the league average.

Finally, Grayson Rodriguez has had a very solid June where his ERA in three starts sits at 2.33. His overall K/9 has decreased since the start of the season, but he is walking fewer batters:

Grayson’s overall 2024 fastball metrics are excellent with his SwStr% well above average and a decreased batting average against. Control of the fastball has all of Rodriguez’s other pitches benefiting.