Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: April 17th, 2025

Welcome to another installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

• Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
• MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
• Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews

The data for this article reflects games played through April 15th (but may include a Spring Training start for any pitcher who has yet to reach three starts) and only displays Statcast’s four-seam fastball (FF) velocity.

Bailey Falter’s four-seam fastball usage has increased, but decreased velocity and poor location have combined for a 7.20 ERA (4.51 xERA) in three starts. His four-seamer has been hit with a .453 wOBA. He also hasn’t been able to keep runners on the bases with a very low 50.5% LOB% compared to the league average of 72.0%.

Bryce Elder has thrown his four-seamer less often and has yet to earn a swinging strike in his two regular-season starts. He has, like last season, favored his sinker over his four-seamer, though it has been hit for a higher and higher wOBA in each of his four seasons.

Andre Pallante is off to a great start with a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.20 ERA (3.86 xERA) in three starts. Even with decreased velocity, he’s earned his highest swinging strike rate (SwStr%) with the four-seamer so far in his career, albeit he’s only had three starts. That mark sits at 8.5%, which is just below league average, but it has helped his slider jump to a 24.6% SwStr%, well above average and close to the league leader Hunter Greene’s 28.0%. There should be some concern about Pallante’s decreased velocity as he just threw the most spring training innings of his career (13.0 IP), and he’s coming off his highest innings mark in a single season (2024, 121.1 IP).

Chris Bassitt’s four-seam usage is up slightly, but it’s still his least utilized pitch. His slider’s SwStr% is an excellent 27.3%, and even with a .347 BABIP thanks to heavy sinker usage, he’s been able to limit runs with a 90.0% LOB%. Those good luck stats combined with his 0.98 ERA are making fantasy managers giddy, but his 3.14 xERA tells them Bassitt shouldn’t necessarily be considered an auto-start moving forward.

Jordan Hicks’ fastball velocity decreased throughout the 2024 season as he figured out how to succeed as a starter. Still, 97 MPH is darn good. Sadly, Justin Steele’s decreased velocity was due to an arm injury, and he’ll need Tommy John Surgery. Despite Jameson Taillon’s velocity dip, he is having success getting swinging strikes with his slider (28.3%) and his changeup (28.6%). Both of those secondaries are earning SwStr% marks that are well above average. Sean Newcomb’s decreased four-seam velocity hasn’t hurt its performance as it’s earning an above-average SwStr% at 10.3%, but his cutter has been getting walloped for a .704 wOBA. In three starts, he has a 4.97 ERA (3.45 xERA).

Max Meyer’s velocity is down over his first three starts of the season despite a 2.00 ERA (3.45 xERA). He remains reliant on the slider, throwing it most often and only throwing the four-seamer 24% of the time. It’s 9.4% SwStr% is slightly above average. Mitch Keller’s four-seamer is not missing bats (4.6% SwStr%) and is getting hit (.360 wOBA).

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Tanner Houck may have increased his velocity, but he was crushed for 10 hits and 11 earned runs in his last outing against the Rays. His four-seamer wasn’t the problem, as he located five of the six he threw outside of the zone and in good fastball locations. His sinkers, sweepers, and split-finger fastballs in poor locations caused all the trouble:

Small increases in Ben Lively’s fastball velocity have not turned into results. It’s only earning a 5.3% SwStr%, and he throws it 35% of the time. Colin Rea has done an excellent job of limiting walks while earning a good amount of swing and miss (22.2% SwStr%) with his slider. If he can maintain the velocity of his four-seamer, keep his slider as a swing and miss pitch, and continue to use his cutter/sinker combination as soft contact pitches, he may be able to continue defying his 4.84 xERA (1.00 ERA).

Michael Wacha’s changeup has been hit for a low .229 wOBA early in the season. Any velocity increase in his four-seamer to help play off that changeup is good. His other two fastballs, the cutter and sinker, aren’t playing as nicely and are both getting hit for above-average wOBAs.

Skubal’s fastball getting faster must be terrifying for hitters. If I were a hitter about to face Skubal, I’d try to start limping a little to see if the skipper would give me a day off. So far this season, Nick Pivetta’s four-seamer, curveball, slider, and sinker have gotten hit for less than a .200 wOBA. None of them are doing better than average in the SwStr% department, and he’s riding a .214 BABIP with an 87.3% LOB%, so fantasy managers shouldn’t get too confident yet. In four starts, Carlos Rodón finds himself on the other side of Lady Luck with a 5.48 ERA and a 3.27 ERA. He’s only left 57.9% of batters on base (LOB%), but is getting hit for only a .188 BABIP. His four-seamer hasn’t earned much swing and miss (5.3% SwStr%), and his slider (18.2% SwStr%) and changeup (16.7% SwStr%) are performing around the average.