Thomas Jefferson Jankowski, The Sequel

Our quest for stolen bases now takes us to San Diego, where there may be some reason to tarry. New manager Andy Green seems a bit more willing to steal bases than his several predecessors last season were. This year, the Padres are attempting to steal 7.32% of the time they have a Stolen Base Opportunity. That’s 5th in MLB; the average is about 5.5%. In 2015, their SBA/SBO percentage was a below-average 5.3%.

Of course, just because you try to steal a base doesn’t mean you steal it. Last year, the Padres stole 74% of the bases they tried to steal. This year, it’s only 66%. But they try so much more often that their ratio of Stolen Bases to Stolen Base Opportunities is higher this season (4.80 vs. 3.92).

Does it do us any good to know this? Hard to say. You’d think that the guy who’d benefit most from Green’s fondness for SBs is Melvin Upton Jr., who leads the team with 6 in 9 attempts. But it turns out that Upton is attempting steals at the same rate he attempted them last year. He still projects to steal more bases (30 if he gets 600 plate appearances) than he did last year (24 if he’d gotten that many). But that may be attributable to his unusually low number of SB Opportunities last year—a fact to which we called your attention at the start of the season, though of course we didn’t do anything about it ourselves.

But Upton’s undoubtedly already owned in your league. It there anyone else out there? Maybe Alexei Ramirez. He’s 3 for 6 in stolen bases, which isn’t encouraging in a 34-year-old but may just be a blip—if he were 4 for 6, you might not be skeptical. He’s attempting steals a good bit more (6 SBA/36 SBO) than he did the last two seasons with the White Sox (49 SBA/450 SBO). If you think he can succeed two-thirds of the time from here on—his SB% in 2014-2015 was 78%–then he should get you 20 more stolen bases between now and the end of the season, which, given his production in other categories, may well be more than you’re getting from your current shortstop. And he’s probably available—he’s owned in only 13% of Yahoo leagues and 8% of ESPN leagues.

A more speculative pick would be Cory Spangenberg, who’s owned in 3% of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues. He’s now on the DL with a strained quadriceps, which probably isn’t very good company. He should be back by the end of next week. Spangenberg is very fast—51 SBs in one season in the minors—and should have no trouble reclaiming second base. His replacement Jemile Weeks just went on the DL, and produced a slash line of .140/.204/.200 before he did. His replacement’s replacement, Adam Rosales, is a career utility infielder with a .636 OPS.

There are some reasons to be wary about Spangenberg, though. First, obviously, there’s the quadriceps, which may inhibit his base stealing. Second, almost as obviously, he wasn’t attempting steals before he got hurt—only one, successfully, in 13 SBOs. Then there’s the fact that, what with Wil Myers having laid claim to batting second, Spangenberg will bat towards the bottom of the lineup. And finally, it’s barely conceivable that Spangenberg’s replacement’s replacement’s potential replacement, Jose Pirela, who just got summoned from the minors to replace Weeks, will show enough at second base to get a purchase on the job before Spangenberg returns. And Pirela can steal a base now and then himself.

This brings us, at last, to our man Travis Jankowski. Here’s a recent description of him. He’s an excellent contact hitter with great strike-zone control (.335/.413/.425 in AA and AAA last season), a good glove in center field, and, most importantly, plus-plus speed (for example, 71 SBs in the minors in 2013). He’s on the major league roster now, and Green seems more than willing to let him run (2 SBs in 4 SBAs and 13 SBOs).

So what’s not to love? The fact that Jankowski almost never plays. He’s started only one game, and that was in left field. Meanwhile, Jon Jay, aka The Federalist, has a death grip on center field and the leadoff spot. We don’t quite understand why the Padres are doing this. We mean, Jay’s okay. He gets on base a bit (.336 OBP). But he’s 31, he has no power, he long ago lost his base-stealing speed, and now his glove is suspect as well (negative dWAR this season, says Fangraphs). If, like the Padres, you’ve got a team that will be fortunate to win 70 games this season, why not give your 24-year-old former first-round pick an audition?

We predict that this makes so much sense that it will happen sooner rather than later. Maybe Jay hits a cold streak and loses his job. More likely, he gets traded to a contender, for whom he will be an excellent reserve outfielder/pinch hitter. He’s in the last year of his contract, so that shouldn’t be a problem. But however it happens, Jankowski’s an attractive acquisition if you’ve got a big enough roster to keep him in reserve while you’re waiting. Ideally, then, in the fullness of time we go from Jon Jay, The Federalist, to Travis Jankowski, the Anti-Federalist. Hence our title, and thanks for asking.