The Sophomore Report: Abreu, deGrom, Pillar

We read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose first foray into The Show was actually blanketed in smoke and mirrors.

The Sophomore Report, week 1
The Sophomore Report, week 2

Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox: Let’s be honest, Abreu couldn’t have had a much better rookie season. But in doing so he set the bar extremely high as we all expect bigger and better things from players in the early years of their career. Abreu, 28, isn’t a typical rookie, of course, having played professionally in Cuba before his defection. So far this year, he’s a little bit behind his 2014 pace but a little regression was expected and his batting average on balls in play from 2014 has dipped from .356 to .300 and, as more of a slow-footed-slugger, he’s not the type of player that’s typically a perennial .300+ hitter. As the weather warms up in Chicago and elsewhere, though, expect his power to really kick in (His hottest prolonged stretch last year was June-August). Hopefully by then the players in the lineup around him are playing up to their potential.

Jake DeGrom, RHP, Mets: It’s been a good year to be a baseball fan in New York. Both teams are off to strong starts and the Mets’ success has come on the heels of some strong pitching. Sophomore hurler has been one of the club’s most potent weapons — impressive considering a year ago he wasn’t even considered the Mets’ best pitching prospects (I personally ranked him seventh in the system and the third-best pitching prospect with the ceiling of a No. 3/4 starter) or a strong candidate to end up pitching 140 innings for them. Fast-forward back to 2015 and deGrom has rocketed past the likes of Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero to become a reliable starter alongside Matt Harvey and Bartolo Colon in just his second year. He’s shown above-average control and command of a four-pitch repertoire. Just 26, he should continue to improve.

Ken Giles, RHP, Phillies: Giles, 24, was a surprise contributor to the Phillies’ ‘pen in 2014 and the former seventh-round pick was so dominant that he quickly became the closer-of-the-future. That title would probably be “current closer” if not for the presence of veteran closer Jonathan Papelbon and his bloated (ie. un-moveable) contract. In truth, though, the safety net is probably a good thing because Giles has not been as good in 2015 — certainly not as strong as his 0.73 ERA would suggest. His walk rate has jumped from 2.17 in 2014 to 5.84 this year, a troubling change when considering command and control issues haunted him in the minors (He had walk rates of 5.79 or higher in three of his four minor league seasons. Most troubling, though, is the decrease in fastball velocity — closing in on three miles per hour. Giles has the talent to be a high-leverage reliever but he’s surrounded with a number of question marks at this point.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Blue Jays: I’ve been writing about Pillar, 26, since 2013 — after his first full season in pro ball. And for much of that time I’ve been likening his ceiling to that of former Blue Jay Reed Johnson. And the comparison still fits. Pillar is a player that, in small doses, looks pretty good because he hustles and makes some highlight-reel plays at times. On offence, though, he’s a below-average left fielder due to his lack of power (He probably has 10-12 homers in him). And he has a little base running acumen but he’s more or a 12-15 steals guy with regular playing time than a 20+ or 30+ guy. He’s also walked just 12 times in 118 big league games. Shift him over to centre field and he’s a better offensive player but he’s not as naturally skilled as a defender as someone like Dalton Pompey (who, at the age of 22, was recently sent back to the minors for more seasoning). The good news for Pillar is that Jose Bautista is clearly not healthy, despite playing mostly everyday, and neither is Michael Saunders. The other guy seeing regular playing time right now is Ezequiel Carrera. Who? Exactly.

Danny Santana, SS/OF, Twins: Santana came out of (almost) nowhere to produce the fourth highest WAR among freshmen hitters in 2014. This year, though, has been a different story as his aggressive approach at the plate has caught up to him in the early going. He’s been exactly replacement level with a 0.0 WAR through 100 at-bats. His already-too-low walk rate of 4.4% from 2014 has dipped to just 1% in 2015. As a result, his on-base percentage has dipped below .300 and any success he’s had has been aided by a .394 batting average on balls in play. Add in the fact that his BABIP was over .400 in his 101 games last year and you have someone who is in line for a serious decrease in production — or someone that naturally produces otherworldly BABIPs (not likely).