The Poor Man’s Billy

At some point in the next few days, or perhaps in the hours between when I wrote this and when it will be posted, you’ll be treated to an article about Billy Hamilton. Said post will come courtesy of my colleague Alex Chamberlain. Alex always offers a few nuggets of analytical gold. I’m looking forward to what he digs up regarding the preeminent burner in the league.

Speaking of burners, sometime after Hamilton is selected in your fantasy draft, you’ll have the opportunity to draft A’s outfielder Billy Burns. Injuries pushed the switch-hitter into a full time role last season. He surprised us all with a consistent, productive season.

In 555 plate appearances, he hit .294/.334/.392 with five home runs, 70 runs, 42 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. His .339 BABIP passes the smell test for a hitter of his profile, as do his 4.7 percent walk rate and 14.6 percent strikeout rate. In other words, what we saw last year may reflect who he is as a hitter.

For untouted, newly established players, I like to make sure that their seasonal numbers aren’t buoyed by a freak month. You know, one of those months where half the hitter’s balls in play fell for a hit.

Burns passes this smell test too. Originally activated in early May, three of five months featured a wRC+ between 101 and 107. May was his best month (128 wRC+) and July was his only below average month (68 wRC+).

July also shows us the downside of his profile. It was one of two months in which he posted a roughly league average BABIP. The other month, September, included a .136 ISO and two of his five home runs. When Burns isn’t hitting for a .350 BABIP or flashing fluky power, he’s kind of miserable to own.

It’s worth sticking with him through his slumps. Burns has the raw tools to post a very high BABIP – big speed, a 14 percent infield hit rate (fourth best among qualified hitters), and spray contact. He actually skews slightly to the opposite field. That might not be a good thing.

Burns vs. LHP

Burns vs. RHP

From both sides the plate, Burns gets decent power to the pull side. His opposite field contact can best be described as a flick. See those purple dots? Those are his infield flies. He had a 20.7 percent infield fly rate in 2015 – second most in the majors behind Jose Reyes.

Look closely at the infield flies. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but most of them are to the opposite field. As we know, infield flies are automatic outs. Opposite field contact is also responsible for his league-worst soft contact rate (30.5 percent). Incidentally, his 13.6 percent hard contact rate is four percentage points worse than the next lowest rate (Dee Gordon).

Entering his second season as a major league hitter, the narrative for improvement is straightforward. Burns should put more effort into pulling the ball and/or tune his swing to produce better contact to the opposite field. If he halved his infield fly rate and improved the quality of his contact, he could easily post a .315/.350/.415 line with a luck neutral .355 BABIP.

Don’t count on this growth, it’s just the easiest path to improvement for Burns. Steamer actually expects BABIP regression, projecting a .264/.317/.347 line with similar counting stats to last season in 100 more plate appearances.

We know Burns swiped 26 bags in about five-sixths of a season. Is that his true talent level? He had a strong season on the bases with nearly six baseruns above average. However, he was caught eight times in 34 attempts, grading out as only slightly better than break even in steal attempts.

I suspect 2015 was an adjustment period for Burns on the bases. With health, we may see his steal attempts increase from 34 to about 50. That puts him a couple steals shy of 40 bags at his present success rate. Remember, only three players crossed the 40 steal barrier in 2015 and just four more players passed the 30 steal plateau. Burns is positioned to be among the top stolen base targets in the league.

Burns has some attributes in common with his fellow base thieving Billy, but he’s a more well-rounded player. Burns has the tools to hit for a solid average, does just enough to be relied upon as a top-of-the-order hitter, and has a clear (if challenging) path to improved performance. Hamilton merely steals a ton of bases.

This season, Burns was worth $14 to his owners. Hamilton’s injuries bumped him down to $12. Since Hamilton costs more on draft day and introduces difficulties with the management of four categories, I find myself preferring the poor man’s alternative.