The Nolasco Kid

Back in November, Peter Bendix expressed his admiration for Florida Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco. As Peter put it:

“How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.”

With most fantasy players squarely in draft mode right about now, this seems like a great time to hammer home the talent level and productivity of Florida’s covert ace.

Originally drafted by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2001 draft, Nolasco often posted impressive numbers in the minors. By the age of 21, he had turned in a knockout campaign in AA (107 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.11 BB/9). Still, the California native was sent back to the Southern League in 2005, where he once again struck out over a batter per inning (9.6 K/9) with better control (2.56 BB/9). Despite the impressive peripherals, Nolasco often flew under the radar in Chicago’s system, ranking 19th on Baseball America’s top 30 Cubs prospect list in 2005.

In December of ’05, the North Siders shipped Nolasco, Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto to the Marlins in an ill-fated deal for Juan Pierre. While Pierre would spend just one season in Chicago, Nolasco stepped into Florida’s rotation in 2006 and turned in a respectable rookie showing. In 140 frames, he punched out 6.36 batters per nine and walked 2.64 per nine. The flyball pitcher had some issues with the gopher ball (1.29 HR/9), but ended up with an adequate 4.68 FIP.

Unfortunately, Nolasco did not have the opportunity to build upon that work in 2007. Ricky’s entire season was essentially washed away by arm maladies, as he was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation in April and an elbow strain in May. He tossed only 21 innings for the Fish, posting a 5.44 FIP.

In 2008, Nolasco returned with a vengeance. After a ho-hum start, the 6-2, 220 pounder went on a tear during the summer months:

April: 26.1 IP, 13/9 K/BB
May: 34 IP, 25/13 K/BB
June: 35.1 IP, 29/7 K/BB
July: 39 IP, 37/5 K/BB
August: 43 IP, 51/4 K/BB (!)
September: 34.2 IP, 31/4 K/BB

In 212.1 innings, Nolasco posted a 3.77 FIP. He still gave up some taters (1.19 HR/9), but his peripherals were just sparkling: 7.88 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. His 4.43 K/BB ratio ranked 7th among all starters, one spot ahead of stretch-run deity CC Sabathia. Ricky had always possessed a well-placed low-90’s fastball and a sharp mid-70’s hook, but he added another dimension to his repertoire in 2008 with a mid-80’s slider:

2006: FB 61.4% (91.5 MPH), SL 0.1% (82 MPH), CB 34.1% (74.9 MPH)
2008: FB 51.6% (91.2 MPH), SL 15.8% (83.9 MPH), CB 26.8% (75 MPH)

Supplementing those three offerings with an occasional changeup, Nolasco was more difficult to put the bat on the ball against. Opposing hitters swung at 28.6% of pitches Nolasco threw outside of the strike zone (22.1% in ’06), made less contact on those outside swings (64 O-Contact% in ’06, 60.7% in ’08) and made less contact overall (83 Contact% in ’06, 79.3% in ’08).

Ricky Nolasco does come with some risk. He has an elbow injury in his not-too-distant past, and he is coming off of a season where he threw considerably more than ever before: his prior highest inning total was 161.2, back in the Southern League in 2005. Despite those concerns, fantasy owners should take a long look at Florida’s underappreciated ace, with the hope that he avoids the trainer’s table. If he remains healthy, Nolasco could be a top-20 starter in 2009.