The N.L. Closer Report: 6/10

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

It’s something of an upset when a batter makes contact against Big Jon these days, and downright stunning when the opposition actually plates a run. Broxton coughed a run against the Padres last night, but still tallied the save (his 14th). He struck out 7 hitters in three innings this week, taking his astronomical K rate up to 14.7. For reference, that’s nearly 2 whiffs per nine innings higher than second-place Matt Thornton.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was a little wild this week, with 3 walks in 4 innings, but he locked up two more saves and punched out 5 batters as well. Bell has yet to give up a dinger in 25.1 innings (Thanks, PETCO!), and opponents have just a 13.8% line drive rate against San Diego’s stopper. Bell has a career-best 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings, the 8th-highest rate among relievers.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod chucked 3 scoreless innings this week, picking up two saves along the way. His 2.28 WPA trails only Broxton among all relievers, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.5%) is at its lowest rate since 2004. Rodriguez is generating a boatload of flyballs (52.2 FB%), but he’s also jamming plenty of batters with a career-high 20% infield/flyball rate.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

We’re now well into June, and Hoffman has still yet to give up a run in his Milwaukee threads. That’s 17 innings, for those of you scoring at home. His K/BB ratio is 15/1. A .175 BABIP and zero homers allowed help explain part of the run, but he’s also been pretty damned good. You could make the argument that his revered changeup has never been better, with a run value of +7.02 runs per 100 pitches (his best mark on record since 2002).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls’ forearm tightness appears to be a little more troublesome than once thought. Said Qualls, “I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s going to just heal overnight.” If he has to miss any significant amount of time, either Tony Pena (3.07 FIP) or Juan Gutierrez (2.60) would likely get the call.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Just when it looked like Lidge was getting back on track, he blows back-to-back games against the Dodgers on June 5th and 6th (1.2 IP, 3 R) and then hits the DL with continued knee problems. It’s the same knee that Lidge had surgery on during the offseason.

With Lights Out knocked out, Madson will take the reins in Philly. His qualifications couldn’t be much stronger: the 6-6 righty has punched out 31 hitters in 28.1 frames and holds a 1.03 WPA. Madson sustained a spike in velocity from last summer, averaging a scorching 95 MPH with the pitch and backing it up with a devastating 83 MPH change as well as a 90 MPH cutter. Opponents are making contact with 78.2% of pitches thrown by Madson within the strike zone, one of the lowest rates among relievers, and his 33.5 Outside-Swing% ranks in the top 10 among ‘pen arms. If he’s available in your league? Run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero chucked four scoreless frames this week, though only one came in a save opportunity. He has still yet to serve up a long ball in 26 innings. Cordero’s whiff rate is down for a third straight season (12.22 K/9 in 2007, 9.98 in 2008, 8.31 in 2009), and hitters are making contact at Coco’s offerings 76.2% of the time (the highest rate we have going back to 2002). On the positive side, a lot of that increased contact is coming on pitcher’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone: his contact rate on pitches in the zone is largely unchanged, while his outside-contact% has spiked over the past three years (35.1% in ’07, 53.9 in ’08, 62.3 in ’09).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected a save against the Astros on June 6th, but that was the extent of his work for the week as the Pirates drop four of their last five contests. Exhibit A of why velocity isn’t everything for a pitcher: Capps’s fastball is cracking the radar gun at a career-best 93.3 MPH, but his run value with the pitch is at a career-worst +0.46 (1.73 in 2008 and 2.22 in 2007).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street racked up back-to-back saves on June 8th (Cardinals) and 9th (Brewers), taking him up to 10 for the season. Huston’s 3.57 K/BB is well above last year’s pace (2.56). His fastball has been roasted (-1.41 runs per 100 pitches), but his oft-utilized slider (+3.44) and re-emphasized changeup (+2.23) are getting the job done.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins tossed two innings this week, with a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against Pittsburgh on the 6th and a 1 inning, 1 run appearance against the Cubs the following night while picking up the save. Overall, it’s hard to quibble with Hawkins’ work while filling in for Valverde. He has nearly a K per inning (23 in 24.2 frames), and his emphasis on a high-80’s cutter/slider has been wise. The pitch has been worth +2.43 runs per 100 pitches.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin made just one appearance this week, tossing a scoreless frame in mop-up duty against the Rockies on June 7th. The former Mariner, Phillie and Red has a 16/5 K/BB ratio in 22 innings, with 13 saves in 14 chances. A .178 BABIP suggests that his tiny 1.23 ERA will rise in the coming months.

Brian Wilson, Giants

San Fran’s mohawked stopper hasn’t surrendered a run since May 21st, a stretch of 7.1 innings in which he has punched out 8 batters but also walked four. Wilson’s walk rate is up for the third straight season (2.66 BB/9 in ’07, 4.04 in ’08, 4.23 in ’09), and his First-Pitch Strike% is down for the third consecutive campaign (61.3, 57.7, 55.4; the MLB average is 57.9). Wilson’s WPA checks in at a tepid -0.72.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano picked up the save last evening versus the Pirates, running his scoreless innings streak up to 10.2 in the process. Like it or not, Braves skipper Bobby Cox continues to use his two relief aces in situations that best call for their skills, be that the 8th or 9th frame of the ballgame. With lefty Nyjer Morgan, switch-hitter Delywyn Young and southpaw Adam LaRoche due up, Cox called upon Gonzalez in the 8th inning. Gonzo hasn’t shown any sort of platoon split during his career (he has actually been somewhat better vs. RHB), but Morgan (career .566 OPS vs. LHP) and LaRoche (.749) have.

Gonzalez (8 saves) and Soriano (5) will likely continue this time-share for the rest of the year. It might be frustrating to fantasy owners, but it’s probably what’s best for the Braves.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom hacked up 2 runs and 2 walks against the Giants on June 6th, then picked up a W in a 4-3 contest with the Cardinals last night. His bread-and-butter heater has been worth -0.84 runs per 100 pitches, a marked dip from the +1.08 mark posted in 2008. With Lindstrom showing such poor control, opponents are smartly laying off his pitches (41 Swing Percentage, 10 percent lower than last year).

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Well, Hanrahan has apparently been booted from the closer role for what feels like the tenth time this season. Taking his place will be MacDougal, he of frequent injuries and a career walk rate of 4.58 per nine innings. The lanky right-hander has handed out 9 walks in 9 frames for the Nats. He’s pretty darned similar to Hanrahan from a performance standpoint, possessing tantalizing mid-90’s heat but generally having no idea where it’s headed.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

By all accounts, Gregg is turning in a mediocre first season with the Cubs. The erstwhile Marlin is fooling his fair share of batters (9.95 K/9), but his walk rate is still over four and a half, with a 5.12 FIP and a WPA barely in the black (0.07).

Fortunately for Gregg, his control looks downright Maddux-esque compared to that of his set-up man. With a wicked (if wild) slider, Marmol has long made hitters look goofy. But his K rate is down for a third year (12.56 in ’07, 11.75 in ’08, 9.67 in ’09), and his walk rate has devolved from troublesome to untenable (27 free passes in 27 innings).

With the 8th and 9th inning dudes scuffling and the Cubbies bullpen doing sloppy work in general (27th in reliever FIP), could Guzman sneak his way into the competition? The perennial Venezuelan prospect has avoided the trainer’s table for a change, and he’s dealing: 25 whiffs and 8 walks in 27.2 innings. Blessed with mid-90’s gas and a devilish slider of his own, the 27 year-old bears watching. Guzman leads Chicago’s ‘pen arms in FIP and WPA.