The N.L. Closer Report: 5/6

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Brad Lidge, Phillies

With 4 taters surrendered in 10.2 IP, Lidge has already served up double the amount of homers in 2009 as he did during the 2008 season. Just as his wacky-low 3.9 HR/FB% from last year was bound to rise, his 28.6 HR/FB% in ’09 will inevitably drop. Attempting to pitch through pain in his right knee, Lidge has seen his fastball velocity dip a few MPH (94.3 in ’08, 92.8 in ’09), while posting a first-pitch strike percentage of just 46.2 (57.7 MLB average).

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has K’d 16 hitters in 11.2 frames, while going 7-for-7 in save ops. So far, Rodriguez has attempted to let opponents get themselves out: he’s thrown just 39.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (5th-lowest among relievers). While Rodriguez has walked six, hitters have acquiesced by chasing offerings outside of the zone 33.9% of the time (24.4 MLB average).

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton just keeps on rolling: with an eye-popping 25 K’s in 14 IP, LA’s ninth-inning beast has punched out more batters per nine innings than any other reliever. 8-for-9 in save chances, Broxton holds the third-best WPA among relievers (1.32), and his 63.5% contact rate is fourth-lowest. When opponents aren’t helplessly swinging and missing, they’re chopping the ball into the infield dirt (57.9 GB%).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has yet to blow a save chance, with 8 saves in 8 opportunities. His 13/2 K/BB ratio in 10.2 IP has led to a 1.31 FIP and a 1.48 WPA that ranks second among all relievers. His mid-90’s gas and low-80’s slider are jamming hitters with great frequency: his IF/FB% is 30 percent.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Arizona’s covert closer has a dominant 14/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings, with a microscopic 0.68 FIP. His groundball rate is just absurd (78.3%), the product of a bushel of swings on outside pitches (his outside swing percentage is 34.6%). With the second-best first-pitch strike percentage among ‘pen arms (79.5%), Qualls is often getting ahead 0-1 or inducing contact on the first offering.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

After starting off the year strong (0 runs in his first 5.2 innings), Capps has gotten crunched in three straight appearances (a combined 7 runs in 2.2 innings), including a 4-run disaster piece against the Brewers on May 4th. Capps will be shut down for a few days with what’s being called a “minor elbow ailment.” The news is disconcerting, given the 25 year-old’s bout with shoulder bursitis last season that cost him about 2 months. Something is off-kilter: normally as precise as any reliever in the majors (with a career BB/9 of 1.48), Capps has issued 4 walks in 8.1 IP.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

After an ugly outing versus the Astros on April 27th (3 R and a loss), Cordero has tossed two scoreless innings. Last week, we noted that Cordero (throwing his mid-90’s fastball nearly three-quarters of the time) has essentially said to hitters, “I’m throwing as hard as I can, now try and hit it.” Thus far, that approach has led to a 2.18 FIP, but his GB% has fallen to 29.6%. Cordero as yet to allow a homer, but flyball tendencies typically don’t fly at Great American Ballpark.

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Valverde’s calf injury turned out to be more serious than expected, requiring the draining of fluid and a DL stint. In his stead, Hawkins will take on ninth innings duties. Worth noting: Hawkins’ strikeout rates had fallen through the floor in 2006 and 2007 (4.03 and 4.72 K/9, respectively), but that number rebounded to 6.97 in 2008 and sits at 8.53 in 12.2 IP this season. The 36 year-old never lost much fastball velocity during those down years, though he is relying more heavily on a high-80’s slider over the past two seasons.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has battled his control a bit over his last two appearances, walking 3 in 2.1 IP in two appearances versus the Rockies. While Wilson isn’t known for his fine touch, he’s not a walk-the-yard type, either. Yet, hitters just aren’t swinging at what Wilson offers. Last week, we noted his rapidly decreasing outside-swing% (down to just 13.9% in ’09). Batters are also increasingly laying off pitches over the plate (his Z-Swing% is 57.6%, compared to the 65.7% MLB average). Overall, opponents have offered at just 34.1% of Wilson’s pitches, second-lowest among all relievers. What gives, Giants fans?

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

So, far, so good for Hoffman. He has a 5/0 K/BB ratio and 4 saves in 5 innings. The sample size is too small to glean a whole lot from, but Hoffman (an extreme flyball pitcher) has a 66.7 GB%. Also, he’s decreased the use of his signature changeup for the second straight season, mixing in more sliders in its place.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Lindstrom has four clean appearances since the unmitigated disaster that was his April 24th appearance against the Phillies. Still, his season totals will be feeling the pain for months to come: his FIP is 6.38, and his WPA is -0.41. Such is the life of the reliever: one bad appearance can put a serious damper on your numbers.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel (once off the DL), Nationals

Can we rule out anyone here, really? Collectively, Nats relievers have a macabre -3.24 WPA, worst in the major leagues. Kip Wells (he of a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 9 IP) is the “leader” in the WPA clubhouse, with 0.38. Bring us your busted prospects (Hinckley, Mock), your retreads (Wells, Tavarez), your discarded Fish (Kensing). Where art thou, Joe Beimel? Beimel will probably get a shot once he’s off the DL, by process of elimination.

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Gonzalez has pitched relatively well thus far, with 16 K’s in 9.2 IP. Unfortunately, his .444 BABIP has led to a crappy 4.66 ERA. Gonzo’s control will likely always keep him from being a truly elite reliever, but he’s a solid buy-low candidate.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Gregg just hasn’t located his pitches: with 9 free passes in 12.2 IP and just 41.8 percent of his offerings coming across the dish (10th-worst among relievers), he has a -0.07 WPA and a 5.15 FIP. Luckily for Gregg, his principal competition (Carlos Marmol) has walked 9 batters in his last 4.1 IP while battling a balky knee.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

What in the name of closer facial hair has gotten into Franklin? The historically underpowered 36 year-old has a 10/2 K/BB ratio in 11.1 frames, with 7 saves and nary a run allowed. Throwing a fastball, cutter, curve, change and a splitter, Franklin has never punched out more than 6.89 batters per nine innings (all the way back in 2001 with the M’s), and his career whiff rate sits at 4.89. Color me skeptical, but his 1.30 WPA ranks 4th among relievers.

Huston Street, Rockies

Talk about a bad week: Manny Corpas goes from closer to one false step away from Colorado Springs. Corpas surely hasn’t been a clamp-down reliever, but his FIP (4.02) is considerably better than his 6.75 ERA. When balls put in play are falling for hits at a Ted Williams-like pace (.404 BABIP), you’re going to struggle.

Street, meanwhile, is back in the saddle after a similar demotion in April. His K/BB ratio is strong (12/2 in 11.1 IP), but he’s surrendered 3 homers already, which has led to a 5.56 ERA. Neither one of these guys has been as arson-worthy as they appear at first glance, though both also fall short of qualifying as late-inning assets.