The N.L. Closer Report: 5/13

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez is 9-for-9 in save opportunities this season, with 16 whiffs in 15.2 frames. K Rod has always been a flyball-oriented sort (41.9 GB%), but he’s taken that tendency to the extreme in 2009: his groundball rate sits at 20%, third-lowest among all relievers. Luckily for the Mets, Citi Field is playing favorably toward such flyball-slanted arms in the early going.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continues to produce Nintendo-style numbers on the hill, with 27 punchouts, 2 hits and 1 run allowed in 16 frames. The 24 year-old has been absolutely untouchable in May: in 5 IP, he’s punched out eight without a hit or a walk. Broxton will eventually surrender some bloops (his BABIP is .099), but his appearances are fast becoming Gagne-esque, “Game Over” events.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell has had plenty of time to hit the Wii-Fit in recent days: he hasn’t appeared in a game since May 7th. Reality is hitting the Padres right between the eyes. After a 9-4 start, the Fathers have gone an unholy 4-16. Bell still hasn’t had a runner cross home plate on his watch, with an 11.2 inning scoreless streak and a 1.60 WPA that ranks second among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls is going through a rare rough path of pitching, having been scored upon in two of his last three appearances. Still, he holds a superb 16/2 K/BB ratio in 13 frames, with a 2.42 FIP that rates as his lowest figure in the majors.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps missed some time nursing a sore elbow, but that’s okay: the Bucs accomodated their closer by going on an eight-game losing streak. The beefy right-hander worked an inning of mop-up duty in last night’s 7-1 victory over St. Louis, again showing shaky control with two walks surrendered. Capps now has issued more free passes in 2009 than he did during the entire 2008 season.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

May has been rather cruel to Philly’s stopper: Lidge has surrendered 6 runs in his past four innings, with two more souvenirs entering the bleachers. He’s now given up 5 dingers in 13.2 innings, for a 21.7 HR/FB% that looks like a misprint. Lidge’s First-Pitch Strike% sits at 47.8% (58.9 career average). If his knee continues to bark and the long-balls continue, Madson could make a cameo in the event of a DL stint. Madson has a FIP hovering around two, and he’s kept the fastball velocity spike from late last season (94.7 MPH in 2009).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero is now 10-for-10 in save ops, missing bats (16 K in 15 IP) while also making things a little too interesting for Cincy’s fans (7 BB). Utilizing his mid-90’s fastball more often (71.8%) at the expense of his high-80’s slider (20.6%), Cordero has seen his Outside Swing% fall for a third straight season. Cordero threw that hard, biting breaking pitch 46.2% of the time in 2007, while garnering an O-Swing% of 35.4%. The slider usage dropped to 37.3% in 2008 (30.4 O-Swing%), and with another decrease in slider usage, his O-Swing% sits at 26.8% in 2009 (24.4 MLB average).

LaTroy Hawkins (Jose Valverde on DL), Astros

Filling in for Valverde, Hawkins notched a save on the 8th, gave up a pair of hits on the 9th and hasn’t pitched since. LaTroy is looking more like the fellow who posted back-to-back strong seasons with the Twins in 2002 and 2003, as opposed to the low-octane Orioles and Rockies version from 2006-2007. He has 13 K’s in 15 innings, with a 78.5% contact rate that rates as his lowest dating back to ’02 (80.6% MLB average).

Brian Wilson, Giants

With a career-high 3.17 K/BB ratio, Wilson has notched 8 saves in 10 chances. Hitters continue to take few hacks at Wilson’s offerings, swinging at 58.8% of his pitches thrown within the strike zone (65.9% MLB average). His fastball (just about the straightest pitch in the majors in 2007 and 2008, with less about a half an inch of horizontal movement compared to a pitch thrown without spin) is wiggling a little more in ’09, with 3.7 inches of tailing action in on righty batters.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

“Hell’s Bells” has been a hit in Beertown thus far, with 7 scoreless frames, no walks and six saves. Interestingly, Hoffman’s signature changeup is showing more “sinking” action this season: thrown with 9.5 inches of vertical movement in 2007, the pitch had 8.8 inches of vertical movement in ’08 and just 6 inches in ’09. Perhaps it’s just a small-sample quirk, but could that have something to do with Hoffman’s uncharacteristic 66.7 GB%?

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom has rebounded with seven straight scoreless appearances since April 24th’s bludgeoning at the hands of the Phillies. Never a control-artist, Lindstrom has issued 9 free passes in 13 innings, while locating just 45% of his pitches in the strike zone.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan, Nationals

Beimel got the call in the 9th last night, and promptly served up a three-run bomb to hacking wonder Pablo Sandoval that turned a 7-6 lead into a 9-7 loss. Maybe he just wanted to fit in: seven of twelve relievers used by the Nats this season have negative WPA figures. Who gets the call next time out is anyone’s guess. Can Ryan Zimmerman close, too?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

While it might rankle fantasy owners, Braves skipper Bobby Cox made a refreshing decision in calling upon Gonzalez in the 8th against the Phillies on May 10th. With three straight lefties due up for Philly, Cox deployed his relievers in a manner that best called for them to be used. He didn’t obstinately say, “Gonzalez is my closer, therefore he must enter the game in the 9th with a lead between one and three runs.” If Cox continues this trend, it could cost Gonzo a few save ops while aiding the Braves overall.

On the year, Gonzalez has 19 K’s in 14.2 innings, with a 2.71 FIP. Soriano has blown hitters away to the tune of a 1.75 FIP in 16 IP, with 22 whiffs induced.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg took a beating to start the season, but he hasn’t given up a run in his last 5.2 innings, with a 7/2 K/BB ratio. Despite placing just 43.3% of his pitches in the strike zone (48.9% MLB average), Gregg has a 66.2 First-Pitch Strike% that eclipses the 57.8% big league average (that’s also the highest rate of his career). The pitches that Gregg does put in the zone are being swung at often (72.3%, 65.9% MLB average), with a low contact rate (78.7%, 87.7% MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has finally been scored upon, after a run of 13 clean appearances to begin the season. The 36 year-old and his newfound cutter (thrown over a quarter of the time) coughed up two homers against the Reds on May 10th (to Jerry Hairston and Micah Owings).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has had a rather quiet week, tossing a scoreless inning on the 8th versus the Marlins and then racking up a save in another spotless frame versus the Fish on the 10th. The former A’s stopper has posted rates of 9.45 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9, though 3 taters in 13.1 innings have put a damper on his line. Street’s a flyball-centric pitcher in a park where that’s a no-no, but his .355 BABIP and 17.6 HR/FB rate portend to better days ahead.