The Mother Of All Promotions

As soon as Jeff Karstens steps on the mound tonight, he’ll become the answer to a trivia question. That question, of course, asks who the opposing starter was when Stephen Strasburg made his big league debut.

It took two months, but the Nationals will finally turn the first overall pick in the 2009 draft loose on National League lineups this evening, starting with Karstens and the Pirates. He’s already owned in 87% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s no chance of making a shrewd waiver grab now, but you knew that already. Instead, let’s focus on what Strasburg could provide fantasy owners the rest of the season.

ZiPS projects 20 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a rather gaudy 113/36 K/BB ratio in 114 IP (h/t BBTF), putting him somewhere around a 3.66 FIP. Looking at (R) ZiPS for some perspective, that projection puts Strasburg on par with what pitchers like Josh Beckett (he’s hurt though), Jered Weaver, and Roy Oswalt are predicted to do the rest of the year, though with a few more strikeouts. That’s a pretty significant pickup in the middle of June, but we’ve always got to watch out for innings limits when it comes to young pitchers.

According to Adam Kilgore, the Nats’ plan is for their prized prospect to throw about 150-160 IP total this season, between the majors and minors. He’s already thrown 55.1 glorious frames in the minors (seriously, look at these numbers), so assuming the high end of Kilgore’s range, we’re looking at 104.2 IP from Strasburg the rest of the way. That’s basically two fewer starts than what ZiPS projects.

Chances are, those two missing starts will come in September, which is fantasy crunch time. I think we all expect the Nats to continue to fall out of the race, so there wouldn’t be much pressure to keep running Strasburg out there late in the year. Losing what should be one of your three best starters in the fantasy playoffs is a rather massive hit; it’s a little like Peyton Manning in fantasy football. You can’t win a championship with the guy because he’s always on the bench resting in Week 17.

Strasburg’s going to provide a ton of value through the summer, but make sure you keep an eye on his innings. Once he approaches 80 or so big league innings, it might not be the worst thing in the world to cut bait and trade him. Most trade deadlines are set in mid-August, which should give you plenty of time to see where his workload sits. You’ll presumably get a valuable piece in return, one that could help you more down the stretch than Strasburg on a leash would. If you’re in a keeper league, forget about this option obviously.

Strasburg should step right in and be a rock solid fantasy starter tonight, but there’s nothing wrong with using the hype to your benefit if you happen to own him. Start him all summer, and then when the Nats are ready to start taking it easy on him, deal him for something else of value.