The League Changes Around Jhonny Peralta
My concept of Jhonny Peralta was born after his first few seasons, in 2005: “meh.” Since then, the league has changed. Which means it’s time to re-evaluate players that have stayed the same since then. Like Jhonny Peralta.
Let’s just take Peralta’s power with respect to the league and put it on a graph. Oh wait, this site does that for you automatically.
Do you see how he’s hovered around league average, fallen from his early peak, and yet now looks better as the league ISO has fallen? Here’s his career rolling ISO by year, compared to the league, and the league’s shortstops:
“That’s what I love about these high school girls, man. I get older, they stay the same age,” says Matthew McConaughey in Dazed & Confused. Jhonny Peralta is David Wooderson. Allright allright.
There is something to his power that’s a little different, though. I used ISO because it was more stable. Peralta’s ISO has oscillated between .120 and .180 generally — that describes all but two of his seasons — and yet his homer total has changed from 11 to 24. Even weirder, over the last five years, his home run per fly ball percentage has only varied from 7.9% to 12.4%. You’d basically project him for around 9% most years, and he’d come within a point or two most years. And still his homer total has been as low as 11 and as high as 21 the last few years.
As much as Peralta has stayed the same, he’s changed. Check out his batted ball mix.
Batters do generally hit fewer ground balls as they age, but Peralta has kept that tendency going into his early 30s. He’s now settled in around a one-to-one level for three years. If he were to keep that up for a fourth year (and be about as healthy), he’d hit about 160 fly balls next season. At his career HR/FB, he’d hit 16 homers. Steamer projects him for 15.
Peralta did switch from the American League to the National for the first time, a move that is generally positive for the fantasy outcomes of the hitter. But that move is supposed to add a few strikeouts and Peralta almost cut his strikeout rate by a fifth from 2013 to 2014. That’s probably because Peralta had a baseline over 20% early in his career, but 2013 was the outlier in a five-year stretch that saw better strikeout rates.
It’s virtually impossible to tease out what effect performance enhancing drugs have had on Peralta’s career. His power waned last year in the middle of an investigation that cost him a 50-game suspension in the end, but his power has rebounded this year. He’s also never failed a test, so it’s likely that the suspension did not alter his usage much. In other words, he was implicated by association, not a test, so he’s more likely to have changed the personnel than the approach.
Maybe that’s a cynical way of thinking about it, but we’re left having to parse the tea leaves in cases like this. At the very least you have to agree that he’s slightly more likely than the general baseball population to be suspended for a large portion of next year. (Much more?)
No matter. When he’s in there, he’s likely to hit for an average that’s slightly better than league average, hit for power that’s slightly better than league average, and give you slightly more RBI than you might expect. That’s much more likely to produce a top-15 season than it is to make him an deep-league-only shortstop, or a bit more valuable with respect to his peers than if you were thinking of him as you thought of him back when you hummed Hollaback Girl as you got dressed and bench pressed to Since You Were Gone.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Did you mean…. “Since U Been Gone”?
Because that’s still my jam.
What are these graphs?! Where is the key for the 1st and 3rd graph? What am I looking at? Come on Eno, you’re better than that!
those are automatic and done on the site so I thought people would be familiar with them. I’ll add captions shortly.
MLB has documented proof that Jhonny Peralta was among the players who purchased HGH for personal use from the Biogenesis Clinic in Miami. The purchase of HGH is illegal, a felony, for which the players were not held responsible in our legal justice system.
The use of HGH has the anti-aging benefits of newly formed muscle and bone cell growth within the users own muscles and bones. Muscle mass can be increased by up to 8%. The new muscle cells are further enhanced as well as one’s own muscle cells by aerobic training and weight-lifting over years’ time.
Another benefit of HGH, human growth hormone, is the long-term strengthening of connective tissue, tendons and ligaments, so that these are seldom injured and players benefit into their late 30’s and even 40’s, such as Bartolo Colon and David Ortiz. They are also HGH users, as is Nelson Cruz, Melky Cabrera, and the others suspended in the Biogenesis case.
Peralta’s hitting has ranged from the low 200’s to over 300 in just a few years, going up and down repeatedly rather than remaining consistent like a Matt Holliday or Yadier Molina. He has likely used HGH at different times in his career, as research has shown that long-term HGH use widens the facial bone structure and causes front teeth to separate. Again, notice Peralta, Ortiz, Colon, and others who have not had teeth replacement.
In 12 MLB years, he has never been on the DL. He doesn’t play all out as 99% of MLB players do, rather he plays at about 50% when at the SS position as he mostly gets only to balls hit right in front of him not to any hit more than 3-4 feet away from his position and makes consistently poor throws to 1B.
It is disgraceful and disrespectful for these players to remain in MLB competing with players who have never used PEDs and HGH for millions of dollars and rewards of long contracts. It is also unsportsmanlike and unprofessional and dishonest, but then MLB is a ‘business’ and these practices are now accepted. The minor consequences of suspensions mean nothing to these cheating players as NOT ONE SINGLE player has ever been removed from the professional ‘sport’ business that is Major League Baseball.
Whatever is accepted, whether right or wrong, will eventually be embraced!
um
Really HGH? I thought he was suspended for using some banned weight loss supplement? I guess I need to read more about this documented proof you speak of.
miaminewtimes.co_ Jan. 31, 2013 A Miami Clinic Supplies Drugs to Sports’ Biggest Names – Tim Elfrink
June 5, 2013 – The Sports Network – MLBPA issues statement regarding Biogenesis investigation
The Major League Baseball Players Association has issued a statement Wednesday regarding ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” Biogenesis report.
Major League Baseball will seek to suspend about 20 players,including former MVP’s Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun, for their involvement in a Miami anti-aging clinic that allegedly supplied the players with performance-enhancing substances.
The ESPN report said the suspensions could be handed down within the next two weeks. The names included were: Rodriguez, Braun, Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, Yasmani Grandal, Nelson Cruz, Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Montero, Jhonny Peralta, Cesar Puello, Fernando Martinez, Everth Cabrera, Fautino de los Santos and Jordan Norberto.
The Biogenesis controversy began in January when the Miami New Times reported it had obtained medical records of players who had purchased banned substances — namely human growth hormone — from the clinic.
August 5, 2013 MLB to Suspend 13 Players Linked to Biogenesis – Kyle Munzenrieder
Bud Selig’s hammer is finally going to come down today on the MLB investigation into players obtaining performance enhancing drugs from Biogenesis, a now-shuttered Coral Gables “anti-aging clinic.” Miami New Times was the first to report that the clinic was supplying PEDs to major MLB stars in an investigation published in January.
Here, via CBS Sports, are the 11 players who will be out for 50 games:
Astros: LHP Sergio Escalona (minors) Mariners: C Jesus Montero (minors) Mets: UTIL Jordany Valdespin and OF Cesar Puello (both minors) Padres: SS Everth Cabrera and RHP Fautino De Los Santos (minors) Phillies: LHP Antonio Bastardo Rangers: OF Nelson Cruz Tigers: SS Jhonny Peralta
Former Biogenesis employees say there’s no mystery why these athletes appear in Bosch’s records. “He sold HGH and steroids,” says the clinic’s former secretary. “Everyone who worked there knew that was what our business was.”
July 30, 2013
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo…
Not enough evidence to suspend some, so those who will be suspended had enough clear evidence against them.
August 4, 2013
http://articles.chicagotribune…
By Phil Rogers, Tribune reporter | August 5, 2013
Major League Baseball suspended the New York Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez through the end of the 2014 season, while 12 other players accepted 50-game suspensions Monday for their dealings with Biogenesis, a shuttered Miami clinic that was a source for illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Rodriguez, who ranks fifth all time with 647 home runs, was given a lengthy suspension both for alleged violations of baseball’s drug agreement and for interfering with MLB’s investigation. Texas Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz and Detroit Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta, both members of playoff-contending teams, were among those accepting 50-game penalties.
Jhonny Peralta, Detroit Tigers, Shortstop Age: 31 Experience: 10 years Salary: $6 million Status: Accepted a 50-game suspension on Aug. 5.
Jhonny Peralta is a 10-year veteran whose average has bounced between a high of .299 in 2011 and a full-season low of .239 in 2012. His peak year came in 2011, when he hit 21 home runs and drove in 86 runs, but this year he is hitting .305 and earned an all-star berth.
6/5/2013 11:21 A.M. ET MLB eyes penalties for players linked to clinic By Paul Hagen /MLB.com
Major League Baseball could be close to a far-reaching conclusion about Biogenesis that would be both historic in scope and a clear demonstration of its commitment to ridding the game of illegal steroids and human growth hormone.
ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” reports that Anthony Bosch, founder of the Miami-area Biogenesis anti-aging clinic accused of supplying performance-enhancing substances to a number of highly recognizable players, including Ryan Braun, Melky Cabrera, Nelson Cruz and Alex Rodriguez, has agreed to cooperate in baseball’s investigation.
Over the past several months, some 20 players have been publicly connected to Biogenesis. ESPN’s list includes Braun, Everth Cabrera, Melky Cabrera, Francisco Cervelli, Bartolo Colon, Cruz, Fautino De Los Santos, Yasmani Grandal, Fernando Martinez, Jesus Montero, Jordan Norberto, Jhonny Peralta, Cesar Puello, Rodriguez and a number of players who are either identified by code names or whose names appear in other documents not obtained by “Outside the Lines.”
Tigers shortstop Peralta declined to comment.
“I play baseball right now. I’m focused to play here right now,” Peralta said.
August 5, 2014 –
http://www.dailybusinessreview…
Bosch, who ran the Coral Gables-based Biogenesis of America LLC and other anti-aging clinics, cooperated with Major League Baseball and is cooperating with federal prosecutors as well.
Authorities said Bosch’ ring trafficked in testosterone, anabolic steroid, and human growth hormone.
In addition to Rodriguez, a three-time American League MVP with the New York Yankees, Bosch supplied PEDs to former NL MVP Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers, all-star shortstop Jhonny Peralta, currently with the St. Louis Cardinals, and all-star outfielder Nelson Cruz, currently with the Baltimore Orioles.
In March of 2011, Bosch branched out to the Dominican Republic and started treating players as young as 12. Bosch distributed testosterone through a company called Scores Sports Management Inc., Ferrer said.
Human growth hormone creates brand new bone and muscle cells which then can be made larger, stronger, denser, and longer-lasting through years of weight lifting, running, exercise, etc.
J. Sheppard,Div. of Med. Sci., Queen Eliz. Hosp., Birmingham, UK Jan. 2006 In children, the pituitary gland secretes human growth hormone while they are growing. When the genetic DNA in a child’s cells tells the gland to stop producing the hormone, the child is fully grown, hopefully and in most cases, normally. When an adult injects laboratory developed and created HGH, this chemical tells the pituitary gland to produce and secrete more hormone thereby causing continued growth of muscles, organs, and even bones. Increased and longer-lasting muscle formation and strength will be a result and is further enhanced by increased exertion, weight-lifting, etc.
C.P. Salenave, Journal Rare Disorders June 2008 … excessive use of growth hormone leads to mandibular overgrowth – widened jaws and tooth separation from the facial bones becoming enlarged.
Observe Jhonny Peralta, David Ortiz, Bartolo Colon and others with separated front teeth. Others such as Nelson Cruz have had dental work, crowns likely, to their teeth.
David Wood getting some love!