The Good and The Bad of ’09: Toronto

Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the Toronto Blue Jays club that finished fourth in the American League East division with a record of 75-87. As a team, the Blue Jays posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of -3.08, which was 18th in the Major Leagues and ninth in the American League.

The Good: Aaron Hill, 2B
A lot of things went wrong in Toronto in 2009, but a few players had true breakout seasons, including Adam Lind, Marco Scutaro, and Hill. The second baseman was recently named Comeback Player of the Year after missing a good portion of the 2008 season thanks to a concussion, which makes his ’09 performance all the more impressive. Not even the biggest Aaron Hill fan envisioned a 36 homer, 108 RBI season occurring at any point in his career. His ISO of .213 was fifth amongst MLB second basemen, behind Ben Zobrist (.246), Ian Kinsler (.235), Chase Utley (.226), and Dan Uggla (.216). Toronto has Hill locked up through 2014 (’12-’14 are option years) and paid him just $2.6 million for a four-win season in ’09.

Hill is not likely to repeat his 30+ homer season, but he did hit 47 doubles and 17 homers in ’07. That suggests that a 20-25 homer year would not be out of the question. If he continues to hit out of the two hole in the lineup, he’s not a lock for 100 RBI… 80 would be more realistic, especially if lead-off man Scutaro leaves town.

The Bad: Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch
How many teams can compete – especially in the American League East – when three members of the starting rotation are lost to serious injuries? Not many, if any, and Toronto struggled to fill the gaps. Rookies Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski each had their moments, with Rzepczynski showing the most potential for the future. Another rookie hurler, Ricky Romero, was the rotation’s second-best pitcher behind Roy Halladay and has an outside shot at the Rookie of the Year award in the AL. Marcum is expected to be back from Tommy John surgery by spring training 2010. McGowan’s timetable is fuzzy after struggling to comeback from shoulder surgery – while also dealing with subsequent nagging injuries. Litsch’s return date from Tommy John surgery looks to be mid-to-late 2010. With a new direction in the front office perhaps Toronto can figure out why its young pitchers keep getting hurt.

From a fantasy perspective, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch have little value at this point. However, all three should be monitored closely. Marcum, in particular, has a chance of putting together a string of solid starts in 2010 if his stuff bounces back to pre-surgery form. As for the ’09 rookies, Rzepczynski is an excellent sleeper candidate, especially in AL-only formats. Romero is the type of player that might attract the sophomore curse, while Cecil probably needs a little more seasoning before he’s ready to be an impact arm at the MLB level.