The Good and The Bad of ’09: New York (AL)
Over the next few weeks, we’re going to take a look at a minimum of two players for each MLB club: One player who exceeded expectations in 2009 and one player that failed to reach his potential. Today, we’re looking at the New York Yankees squad that finished first in the American League East division with a record of 103-59. The perennial powerhouse is currently facing the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Championship Series. As a team, the Yankees posted a Win Probability Added (WPA) of 12.82, which was first overall in the Major Leagues. The last team to come close to posting a similar WPA for the year was the ’05 Red Sox (12.21).
The Good: Robinson Cano, 2B
Second baseman Aaron Hill got a lot of attention in Toronto for his offensive season, but Cano’s wasn’t too shabby, either. Cano reached the 200-hit and plateau for the first time in his career, while hitting .320/.352/.520 with 25 homers. The soon-to-be 27-year-old infielder also hit 48 doubles, which suggests their is more power to come. Although his walk rate remains low at 4.5 BB%, Cano reduced his strikeout rate for the third straight year, from 13.8 to 10.9 to 9.9%. Overall, he was third in the Majors in wOBA (.370) amongst second basemen, behind Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist (.408) and Philadelphia’s Chase Utley (.402).
It seems clear that Cano’s hiccup in ’08 was more fluke than anything else. He remains an elite fantasy option at second base. Cano topped 100 runs for the first time in his career, and had 85 RBI – a total that could increase as he moves into a run-producing role now that he’s matured as a hitter. It’s also encouraging that he feasted on just about everything thrown at him save for the cutter, which gave him significant trouble (-4.91 wCT/C). Cano could top 30 homers as he enters his prime in 2010.
The Bad: Joba Chamberlain, RHP
There isn’t much that goes wrong on a team that compiles such an impressive WPA or 100+ win season. However, Chamberlain’s year can be viewed as a disappointment, as the youngster failed to improve and/or live up to lofty expectations. The right-hander did not have a terrible season but his 4.82 FIP and walk rate of 4.35 BB/9 both headed in the wrong direction. He struggled with his fastball in 2009. It went from a rating of 0.79 wFB/C in ’08 to -1.26 in ’09. His slider was still effective at 1.29 wSL/C. His lack of a consistent third pitch (curve or changeup) hurt him while pitching out of the rotation.
The good news is that Chamberlain is still a young pitcher and this was his first full season in the starting rotation, so ups-and-downs should have been expected. Fantasy owners can look at this as an opportunity to buy low on Chamberlain, who still has good stuff and youth is on his side. He also plays for a club that will give him plenty of opportunities to pile up wins. The slider will result in a good number of strikeouts if he can regain control of the heater – making it less likely that hitters will be able to lay off the breaking ball.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Chien Mien Wang has to be the biggest disappointment. Yes, many thought he was due for a correction, but to get such a negative performance out of the projected 3d starter is probably a greater disappointment than a young pitcher in his first full season having a hiccup. with chamberlain, you may still “buy low” in fantasy and, with a repeat of this year, not get to badly burned. Wang, on the other hand, may be an avoid at all cost guy in next year’s fantasy drafts.
Nah, BA called Joba the best pitching prospect of the past 10 years, he was a serious bust (on those high standards of course) this year.
Yes I think that Chien Mien was probably the biggest Yankees disappointment, although in all fairness it’s been a few years since he was really considered an ace so fantasy managers who took a flyer on him probably have only themselves to blame. Even in his 19 win season a few years ago, he had a k/bb ratio of under 2 and k/9 = 4.7, which is very rare for a supposedly elite pictcher (and often a warning sign for fantasy managers who do their sabermetric homework before draft day). I think most managers look at Chien Mien this year as a late round flyer just in case he got lucky.