The Giants Second Base Depth

I’m pretty sure Joe Panik was never supposed to be anything. References to him as a prospect scream “utility.” Instead he parlayed a lucky-ish 2014 debut into a monster 2015. He posted 4.2 WAR in just 432 plate appearances.

He’s only a two category fantasy player – runs and average – with a possible hint of pop.  Panik still managed to be a positive fantasy asset despite missing a third of a season. And Mr. Sanders’ valuation method is rather harsh on time missed too.

Panik controlled the strike zone throughout his minor league career. Often, plate discipline regresses upon reaching the majors, especially for a no power bat. Pitchers don’t want to walk guys when they’re unlikely to hit for extra bases.

Last season included some of his best numbers at the plate – a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate, 9.7 percent strikeout rate, and 8.8 percent walk rate. Despite high contact rates in and out of the zone, he swung at only 24.8 percent of pitches outside of the zone (MLB average 31.3 percent).

Perhaps it’s uncharitable to call Panik a “no power bat.” He slashed an impressive .312/.378/.455 this season. Of his 82 hits, 37 went for extra bases including eight home runs. While a 6.9 percent HR/FB doesn’t sound fluky, his average fly ball distance was just 262 feet. Comparable “power hitters” include Elvis Andrus and Michael Bourn. Going forward, I see Panik as a five to eight home run guy.

A left-handed hitter, Panik works through the center of the field. He gets his power to the pull field. Left fielders can play Panik almost like a pitcher by shading in and to the line. Infielders can also execute a modest shift with the second baseman sliding closer to first base and the third baseman coming off the line. Those exploitable tendencies will make it hard for Panik to continue posting a .330 BABIP.

Steamer and I agree we should expect power and BABIP regression. The negative kind. In a 614 plate appearance projection, Steamer calls for a 68/7/53/5/.278 fantasy line. The only number I disagree with is the first one. As the club’s likely first or second hitter, Panik should have a shot at 100 runs. He reminds me of poor man’s, pre-power burst Matt Carpenter.

The Giants do have depth at second base. In 193 late-season plate appearances, Kelby Tomlinson held his own. He hit .303/.358/.404 with two home runs and five stolen bases.

A .382 BABIP buoyed his numbers, but he has a long history of high BABIPs. He also works through the middle of the field with his contact. Unlike Panik, he sprayed more balls to the opposite field than his pull side. I expect major league pitchers to adjust by busting him inside.

Entering his age 26 season, Tomlinson will likely serve in a utility role. In 2014, he stole 57 bases in 564 minor league plate appearances. He was more restrained with 26 swipes across three levels last year. I’d peg him as a 25 to 35 stolen base guy over a full season.

If Tomlinson finds his way into regular action, he’s a fantasy target for steals and average. He has even less power than Panik. The team did warm to the idea of using him as a second hitter late in the season which would help his run total.

After locking up Brandon Crawford long term, many are wondering about the club’s plans with top prospect Christian Arroyo. The 20-year-old spent the season in High-A where he posted a 117 wRC+. He also had a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League.

He’ll start 2016 in Double-A and could be major league ready by the end of the season. Given their depth, Arroyo could be used as a centerpiece for an elite major leaguer like Chris Sale. Alternatively, he could supplant Panik and Tomlinson sometime during the 2017 season.

***The present author appreciates your comments. However, he is currently in Vietnam without a computer or internet access. The above article was written in late-November/early-December in order to satisfy his future writing requirements. No matter what you say, he will not respond to you before early January. Apologies if some recent information has not been incorporated.***