The Daily Grind: Zunino, Hahn, Gentry

Agenda

1. Opening Day Results
2. Words From Farnsworth – Zunino
3. Daily DFS – Hahn
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Harang, Lind Gentry
5. The Factor Grid

1. Opening Day Results

I won’t often report my results. However, since we just experienced Day One of the baseball season, it’s time to get some good-natured gloating (or grumbling out). Hanley Ramirez snatched my lineups out of the jaws of defeat. A last minute swap of Dustin Pedroia for Dan Uggla and Clay Buchholz for Corey Kluber sealed my fate on a mediocre day. I entered $28.25 and won $49.50. How did y’all do?

2. Words From Farnsworth – Zunino

I asked swing expert Dan Farnsworth about his thoughts on Mike Zunino. In case you don’t know Dan, go out of your way to meet him. He’s a fount of information about hitting. Here’s what he had to say about Zunino (edited slightly).

In the past: He’s always been very shoulder-heavy in his swing, without much looseness in his hands to allow for adjustments in-swing. Couple that with a lot of effort to his approach, and he really had to guess right on pitch and location to consistently hit it hard. He also has had the tendency to let the barrel come around his hands early, making his hard hits almost exclusively go out to dead-left field.

Now: He’s made an effort to drive the ball out to right-center more this spring, which I love. As a result, he seems to be trusting his strength instead of trying to generate power through effort alone. It’s definitely an improvement from previous years.

That said, he still doesn’t have much looseness to his swing, so it looks like more of a push rather than an easy throw through the ball. The reduced effort might be all he needs to give him more time to see the ball and drive it to all fields, but the barrel still has a tendency to come around the ball and across his body.

His swing this spring reminds me of a less athletic, stiffer version of Jayson Werth. It will still be more pull-side oriented, but he should be able to maintain a higher average than with his old approach. Good breaking balls are still going to be an issue due to the tightness in his swing, since everything goes at the same time (hands, elbows, barrel…). The biggest hurdle will be seeing if he can keep the improvements when the pressure’s on in the regular season, especially if/when he falls into slumps. If he can continue trying not to do too much, he could be a pretty exciting hitter this year.

Result: That sounds like a buy recommendation to me. I’ve been trying to snap him up where I can.

Below you will find his fly out from yesterday, complete with disgusted bat flip. Based on this one swing (N=1), Zunino remains pull happy.

3. Daily DFS – Jesse Hahn

Yesterday, I told you about some players I like for today. Those same players are often useful in DFS. Thus, it can make sense to check yesterday’s Grind.

Day Two features your first test of thin-slate action. There are just eight games from which to choose. Two of the best are threatened by rain.  You’ll want to avoid a rain spattered start, which guides us away from targeting Jake Arrieta, Zack Greinke, or Tyson Ross. Instead, I have my eye on Hahn versus the Rangers.

There was talk of improved velocity this spring, which would be an obvious boon. It appears none of his spring starts were tracked by PITCHf/x, so I can’t verify. Last year, he had a mediocre, 92 mph fastball, above average sinker, and plus* curve. He also mixed in a rare plus change and slider.

The matchup works out favorably. He has a pitcher’s park, and he’ll face a top heavy lineup.

*In case you’re wondering, I’m using a verbal version of the 20-80 scale. Mediocre is 40 grade, above average is 55 grade, plus is 60 grade. 

Stack Targets: Colby Lewis, Nate Karns, Jordan Lyles, Matt Garza, C.J. Wilson

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Harang, Lind, Gentry

Pitchers to Start: Please don’t stream starters tomorrow. If you just can’t help yourself, try Tom Koehler. He’ll face a terrible Braves unit. Koehler typically manages about 7.00 K/9, 3.50 BB/9, and a 4.00 ERA. That’s about what I expect tomorrow too.

Also consider: Miguel Gonzalez 

Pitchers to Exploit: Aaron Harang draws the nightmare assignment against the Red Sox. That offense is terrifying. His spring was unimpressive even by his standards. In 15 innings, he allowed 10 runs with seven walks and seven strikeouts. It’s going to get ugly out there. Unfortunately, the only freely available Red Sox populate the bench (or catch).

Also consider: Scott Feldman, Ross Detwiler, Jeremy Hellickson

Hitters (power): Perhaps I’m missing an obvious target (it is early in the season), but power bats look pretty rare tomorrow. Adam Lind is 38 percent owned on Yahoo, which means he won’t be available in many of your leagues. I’m also not overly enthused about the matchup. Everybody tells me Eddie Butler is great at sea level. Personally, I haven’t investigated.

Also consider: Mark Canha

Hitters (speed): Craig Gentry is a lefty masher. Alright, I exaggerate. He’s a lifetime .282/.364/.376 hitter against southpaws. You’re interested in him because he steals a base about once every 12 plate appearances. Hell, he may even bat near the top of the lineup.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Nori Aoki, Michael Bourn, Anthony Gose

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It may rain in Chicago and Los Angeles. So, you know, adjust accordingly.

The Link. For hitters, the two green games and Seattle seem like the places to go. The pitcher picks are even easier, although I do like Arrieta if the forecast clears.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.