The Daily Grind: Yards, Hutchison, Ruf

Agenda

1. Punting Catcher
2. Daily DFS – Progressive, Camden Yards
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hutchison, Correia, Ruf, Alberto
5. Factor Grid

1. Punting Catcher

I’ve been inundated with injuries this season. A stockpile of uncuttable players in multiple leagues has forced me to get creative with my rosters. Catchers are the least productive players, so I’ve dropped my backstop in some leagues.

There is a time and place to take this approach. Obviously, you’re not dumping Buster Posey to free up a roster spot. We’re talking about guys like Mike Zunino. Even someone like Nick Hundley has probably been too good to cut.

Similarly, certain disabled players are more important than others. Yasiel Puig cannot be cut. Andrew Miller (pending the extent of his injury) probably can be tossed aside. Somebody like Daniel Murphy is a little more challenging. Depending on your league size, Murphy could be a borderline waiver wire guy or a core contributor. It could be painful to drop him in those deeper formats. If you have a Branyan Pena filling your second catcher slot, consider letting him go instead.

2. Daily DFS – Progressive, Camden Yards

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Three of the nine games are early. The stadiums involved are generally seen as pitcher friendly. One park factor stands out – left-handed power is boosted by 18 percent at Progressive Field. Unfortunately, the Indians are facing a southpaw, but the Mariners also have plenty of lefties.

Late: There are two offensively oriented ballparks in the evening slate. Camden Yards will have excellent weather conditions for power. The pitchers involved – Wade Miley and Chris Tillman – are among the most exploitable of the evening. Miley has pitched reasonably well in five of his last six starts. He’s not a gimme for run production. Tillman has been incredibly inconsistent. He’ll sometimes get through six innings with good results, but the peripherals are almost always ugly.

Stack Targets: Matt Garza, Michael Lorenzen, Tsuyoshi Wada, Chris Rusin, David Phelps, Jon Niese, Chi Chi Gonzalez

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 22 names this time around for a Thin Thursday.

Kevin Kiermaier vs. Garrett Richards
Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy vs. Wade Miley
Will Venable and Justin Upton vs. Julio Teheran
Kyle Seager vs. Shaun Marcum
Brayan Pena, Zack Cozart, and Joey Votto vs. Tsuyoshi Wada

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Hutchison, Correia, Ruf, Alberto

Pitchers to Start: Drew Hutchison’s ownership is on the rebound, but he’s available in half of Yahoo leagues. His 4.91 ERA is over a run higher than his 3.63 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. Expect around 8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and solid ratios. He’s opposed by a strangely ineffective Red Sox lineup. They’re trotting out the always inconsistent Joe Kelly tomorrow. Hutchison could win easily. That’s a pattern for the Blue Jays. Despite 31 wins on the season, the club hasn’t had a save opportunity since May 4th.

Also consider: Bartolo Colon, Brett Oberholtzer, Jaime Garcia, Jesse Chavez

Pitchers to Exploit: Kevin Correia pitched reasonably well with the Giants Triple-A squad. It was enough for the Phillies to sign him to a major league deal. The righty typically posts about 4.50 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, and a mid-4’s ERA. Philadelphia only cares that he eats innings. Fantasy owners will care that he gives up a ton of balls in play. That will open the door for some skunkings.

Also consider: Jeff Locke, Joe Kelly, Kyle Kendrick, Jose Urena, John Danks, Tommy Milone

Hitters (power): The Phillies haven’t faced many lefties this season, but they get Darin Ruf into the lineup when they do. He’s rewarded them with a .387/.429/.645 slash in 35 plate appearances. Granted, we’re talking the smallest of samples. However, his .277/.365/.514 career line versus southpaws equates to a 140 wRC+. He’ll see Locke.

Also consider: Mark Canha, Rickie Weeks, Mike Zunino, Robinson Chirinos, Logan Forsythe, Joey Butler, Jeff Francoeur

Hitters (speed): Before we get too excited about Hanser Alberto’s .308 batting average, let’s take a look at the overall profile. He’s a swing-happy contact hitter who has enough speed to post a solid average. He’s someone who might steal upwards of 20 bases in a full season, but he doesn’t hit enough to reach that ceiling. He has more power than say Ben Revere, but he doesn’t have much. Batting at the bottom of the lineup, Alberto is a one day plug-in against Danks if you need a middle infielder.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Billy Burns, Brandon Guyer

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Four of the nine games have some kind of storm risk. Only the Cubs game looks like a possible rain out.

The Link.

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