The Daily Grind: We’re Getting Crushed
Today’s Grind is in rapid fire mode.
AGENDA
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
1. The Daily Grind Invitational
We are getting CRUSHED by mmddyyyy. He’s more than doubled the dollar winnings of any other participant. David Price, Matt Boyd, Mookie Betts, Brandon Belt, and C.J. Cron supplied the juice yesterday. Congrats and Leaderboard.
It’s a massive 52-entry contest, 15-game contest tonight on FantasyDraft.
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2. Weather Reports
The Nationals have a large postponement risk tonight. It’ll never stop raining in Washington D.C. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City are lesser risks.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Main Slate: Max Scherzer has a rather extreme $27,200 price tag versus the Dodgers. I know they’re a disappointing team, but that’s a lot of money for one of 10 players. Notably, rain will make this an impossible pick.
What the hell? Jacob deGrom is the fourth ranked pitcher today? For $18,400? This is an automatic must-play versus a bad Diamondbacks offense. With Paul Goldschmidt struggling and A.J. Pollock lost to his annual catastrophic injury, there just aren’t any offensive weapons to fear. If you massage the numbers just slightly, deGrom could be projected to outperform Scherzer.
I’ve long supported Charlie Morton – even when he was a mediocre sinkerballer. For $23,800 versus a tough Cleveland lineup, I may be looking elsewhere. Mike Clevinger ($17,800) is also overpriced for his difficult matchup.
Tyson Ross looks like a solid play against a good-not-great Pittsburgh offense at PNC Park. I’m kind of shocked his gimmicky slider-heavy repertoire still works. Blake Snell ($15,300) is playable versus the LA Trout. He’s come down to earth a bit after a wonderful start to the season.
Kyle Gibson ($17,000) appears to be priced appropriately. He’s been making short starts this year albeit with a healthy strikeout rate. There’s room for risk and reward opposite the strikeout prone Brewers.
Kyle Freeland ($17,500) has quietly posting solid seven inning starts. He enjoy a visit to AT&T Park against what I still insist is a bad Giants lineup. I don’t care if they’ve played well at times this year. It’s too scrubby.
CC Sabathia ($15,000) and Nick Tropeano ($13,800) are probably as deep as I would reach. Maybe Ivan Nova ($13,100).
Stack Targets: Brett Anderson, Max Fried, Carson Fulmer, Homer Bailey, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Marco Estrada, Dan Straily, Brent Suter, Derek Holland, Felix Hernandez
That’s a lot of names, and I could have kept going.
4. SaberSim Says…
Scherzer, deGrom, Hernandez, Godley, and Tropeano are the top rated pitchers. I know the Tigers have a Triple-A quality offense, but I’m still not buying Felix shares. Unsurprisingly, deGrom, Hernandez, and Tropeano are also top bargains.
Kris Bryant, Mike Trout, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Schwarber headline the list of hitters. Not sure I’m this bullish on Schwarbs. Martin Prado, Cameron Maybin, Adam Frazier, and Miguel Rojas are some of the value plays. Makes sense, Fried is pretty bad. I like Maybin in particular because the Braves are stolen base prone.
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Is there anything you can explain as to why Goldschmidt is doing so terribly this year?
I don’t know *why* this is the case, but his struggles seem to be at least partially real to this point – check out his Z-contact (75.5%) compared to his career (82.1%). That’s a significant change and shows that he’s getting beat in the strike zone like never before.
Notably, he’s starting behind in the count a lot more, so it could just be that he needs to adjust to pitcher’s sequencing against him. His eye seems unchanged, and he’s still hitting the ball hard to all fields.
I’d bet on just a slump – Goldschmidt has always shown the ability to adjust in the past.
He’s supposedly healthy after last September’s elbow injury. But he is not (and even his home announcers have commented on it) catching up to fastballs. Getting beat by good velo these days…not sure why.