The Daily Grind: Walker, Cody Anderson, Reynolds

Agenda

1. The Future vs. Now
2. Daily DFS – Bettis, Walker
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Morgan, Reynolds, Spangenberg
5. Factor Grid

1. The Future vs. Now

Yesterday, a reader asked about a blockbuster trade in a keeper league. The league has a limit of six keepers a season. He would send Edwin Encarnacion and Byron Buxton for Bryce Harper. Harper and Encarnacion can be kept indefinitely with the cost of a first round pick. Buxton will forever be a 24th round pick. Do you take the expensive star or the possibly most valuable player in the league?

I think about this conundrum in two ways. First, which player is likely to provide more production relative to their cost over the next 10 years. Harper is certainly likely to outperform Buxton overall, but Buxton doesn’t need to be elite to be more valuable than Harper.

The current season also matters. Is the Harper upgrade sufficient to take home the title for this owner? What should we expect from Buxton this season? Our projection systems anticipate a handful of home runs and about a dozen stolen bases. Basically, he’s projected to be on par with Rusney Castillo.

Let’s crowd source this deal. Do you prefer first round Harper or 24th round Buxton now and in the foreseeable future?

2. Daily DFS – Bettis, Walker

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are five early games. The Max Scherzer versus Francisco Liriano contest is sullied by the threat of rain. It might be wiser to roll the dice with a dangerous gamble like Carlos Rodon. However, I happen to like Chad Bettis at Coors Field against the Brewers. Maybe “like” is a strong word. I think Bettis could survive with a 10 point FanDuel performance. He costs just $6,200 on FanDuel.

Late: The 10 game late slate offers more variety. At the top end, you’ll find Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, and John Lackey. All have excellent matchups. Enterprising risk takers should try Taijuan Walker ($7,800 on FanDuel). Over his last four starts, he’s averaged 15.75 points. As is often noted, the Astros could strike out 15 times or bash five home runs.

Stack Targets: Kevin Gausman, Mark Buehrle, Nick Martinez, Trevor May, Jered Weaver, Kyle Lohse, Erasmo Ramirez, Rick Porcello, Tom Koehler, Anthony DeSclafani, Nate Eovaldi, Tim Hudson, Robbie Ray

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 34 options today. My favorites are presented within the space below.

Billy Butler v Jered Weaver
Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, J.B. Shuck, and Geovany Soto v Nick Martinez
Mike Napoli and Pablo Sandoval v Edinson Volquez
Yasiel Puig v Tim Hudson
Christian Yelich v Anthony Desclafani
Justin Upton v Robbie Ray
Dexter Fowler v Trevor May

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Morgan, Reynolds, Spangenberg

Pitchers to Start: Indians prospect Cody Anderson will make his major league debut. The righty has made 12 minor league starts. He’s shown improved strikeout and walk rates this season. Honestly, I know very little about Anderson, but I can parrot what Kiley McDaniel has written. Actually, I’ll us quotes.

The arm action and delivery are both good and he normally sits 91-93 with some sink, hitting 95 mph, but can sit in the mid-90’s in short stints. His slider is above average, the curveball is average but inconsistent and the changeup is fringy but flashes average sometimes.

Anderson was a multi-sport guy, so he was behind the development curve. That the 24-year-old appears to have taken a big step forward this season is mighty encouraging. Keep an eye on him.

Also consider: Charlie Morton, Vincent Velasquez, Jeremy Hellickson, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: Adam Morgan was once an interesting prospect before injuries derailed his development. The 25-year-old lefty is still young enough to be called a prospect, but he didn’t even appear on Kiley McDaniel’s top 30 list (which often goes 50 players deep). Morgan possessed a strong K%-BB% through the 2012 season. Since then, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Expect a lot of balls in play.

Also consider: Chris Tillman, Scott Copeland, Alex Colome, David Phelps, Michael Lorenzen, Matt Garza, Chris Rusin

Hitters (power): I don’t include Mark Reynolds very often, mostly because I forget he still exists. The slugger is hitting .251/.323/.398 with five home runs. A .349 BABIP has helped to raise his batting average beyond the Mendoza line. Regression is coming but probably not tomorrow.

Also consider: Justin Maxwell, Aramis Ramirez, Domingo Santana, Chris Coghlan, Kyle Blanks, Randal Grichuk, David Murphy

Hitters (speed): Not too many speed options tomorrow in my opinion. I suppose Cory Spangenberg against Hellickson is my favorite. I still don’t expect a stolen base.

Also consider: Juan Lagares

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Nats game is the most likely to be interrupted. Three other games are a minor risk for storms.

The Link.

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