The Daily Grind: Underpriced Aces

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AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. A Solution

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Giantr00 is on a roll. Yesterday, I questioned whether Jon Gray and Julio Teheran could have the pitcher’s duel necessary to justify their costs. Well, they did, combining for over 46 points. Nick Castellanos, Logan Forsythe, Kole Calhoun, and Nomar Mazara carried the our victor to, uh, victory. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We had a big ol’ overlay yesterday. I haven’t been around to do any hyping on Twitter in the late afternoon. That’ll probably be true today too for our usual contest on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

It’s looking stormy for half of the outdoor stadiums. Delays and postponement are possible in Pittsburgh, New York (AL), and Cleveland. Other locations like Atlanta, Texas, Boston, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C could be affected. Monitor accordingly.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: We have 14 games with which to work. Alas, we’re losing Aaron Nola and Noah Syndergaard to a 6:35pm start time. So cruel.

Fear not, aces abound. Max Scherzer ($24,700) headlines the action. He’s an absolute steal at this cost. The Nationals host the lowly Marlins. Scherzer should run over $26,000. Speaking of lowly opponents, Carlos Carrasco ($21,600) is ridiculously cheap versus David Hess and the Orioles. Carrasco is a $24,500 asset tonight.

What’s going on? Charlie Morton is only $19,300 opposite Edwin “clown shoes” Jackson? Where is FantasyDraft getting these prices? Morton should cost over $23,000. Sure, the Athletics won’t roll over like the Marlins or Orioles, but Morton is still very likely to reach 20 points.

Ok, deep breath. We’re past the ridiculous dea… HOLY SHIT IT’S $14,600 ROBBIE RAY. That would pass muster if he were visiting Coors Field. However, he’s actually setting up shop in San Diego. Although the Padres are modestly decent against left-handed pitching, they’re still ridiculously strikeout prone. Ray is always volatile, but it’s unlikely he’ll underperform this price by a significant amount. The upside is over 30 points.

Now we can breath. Mostly because the other values don’t carry the same unimpeachable upside as the four top arms. Jack Flahery ($18,700) is priced appropriately. He’ll host the Brewers. Similarly, this is par value for Walker Buehler ($17,600) at Seattle and Cole Hamels ($17,100) visiting the Pirates.

Kyle Gibson is a modest bargain for $16,100. He’s a solid inexpensive alternative to the all-too-obvious Ray. The Twins host the Toledo Mud Tigers.

Kyle Freeland ( $15,800) continues to outperform expectations. I have some concern about the challenging Braves lineup. I want to say Freeland is a stable mid-tier performer, but we just don’t have enough proof to support that assertion. I’m still trying to figure him out.

Freddy Peralta ($15,300), Jakob Junis ($14,800), James Shields ($12,600), and Trevor Williams ($12,100) are bland, playable options. Basically anybody I didn’t mention or list below is also worthy of consideration.

Stack Targets: Marcus Stroman, Casey Kelly, Rays, David Hess, Drew Hutchison, Odrisamer Despaigne

The Hutchison-Despaigne matchup should garner a lot of attention tonight.

4. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Carrasco, Ray, Flaherty, and Morton are the top pitchers. I’m a little less keen about Flaherty versus the Brewers, but I still like him. Ray, Shields, Sean Newcomb, Carrasco, and Scherzer are premium values. So SaberSim agrees that the studs are underpriced.

Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Brandon Belt, Jose Ramirez, and Joey Votto are the bats to own. Belt is also a super obvious top bargain along with Tyler Austin, David Fletcher, Votto, and Scooter Gennett. Shucks, I was hoping to sneak a low owned Reds stack. They’re not going to fly under the radar.

5. A Solution

Everybody always wants to solve “problems” with penalties. In this case, the problem is Ronald Acuna getting beaned by Jose Urena. The penalty is an unpaid six game suspension. A lot of people wanted to see between an 11 game and rest-of-season suspension along with steep fines.

No.

Instead, I’ve solved the problem by affixing blame (and penalties) to the most responsible party – the team.