The Daily Grind: Tryhard Plays

I did it! I employed the ultimate tryhard lineup by using Sam Gaviglio. And while he didn’t do much (1.80 points), it was a net 3.40 point improvement on Aaron Sanchez (-1.60 points). Unfortunately, Lucas Giolito (13.85 points) was cheaper than Gaviglio and therefore the far better play. What’s worse, I dropped top performer James McCann from my lineup (for Jose Rondon) to cover the difference between the two pitchers. The total cost of using Gaviglio was a loss of 30.05 points.

So, in summary, I shouldn’t have done it. Or maybe this is just a case of a high risk, high reward play turning sour. And for what it’s worth, had I not tryharded all over my lineup, I still would have only finished fourth in the Invitational.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. The Prettiness

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Mrschaef didn’t try hard. He used McCann and Kole Calhoun and Andrew Benintendi and Brian Goodwin en route to victory. Congrats and Leaderboard.

If yesterday’s two-game contest wasn’t your thing, I have good news. We’re playing a 13-game free-for-all on FantasyDraft this evening.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Some rain may interact with the action in Pittsburgh and Texas. It’s not expected to be an issue.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

I’m surprised to see Clayton Kershaw ($19,800) atop the price list tonight. Although he’s pitched well in three starts, he’s needed help from a .196 BABIP. Post-peak Kershaw is also vaguely homer prone, and the Padres don’t lack for fly ball smashing sluggers. This isn’t an unreasonable price to pay for Kershaw, but I expect a few pitchers to outperform him at a lower cost.

One of those is James Paxton ($19,400). The flashy lefty is always a double-digit strikeout threat. With a stout bullpen supporting him, the win bonus is within his grasp. The Yankees are opposed by Kyle Gibson ($12,800). The mid-tier right-hander skunked New York in a couple outings last season. Just an observation. I still greatly prefer Paxton to Gibson, even at a $6,600 premium.

Tyler Glasnow ($18,800) is another pitcher I’d take ahead of Kershaw. Again, the win bonus is his for the taking. The Rays offense may be the most popular stack tonight at Camden Yards. Glasnow is consistently posting near-ace quality point totals.

Chris Sale ($19,400) is beginning to wake up. A return to his old stomping grounds in Chicago for The Battle of the Sox should make for compelling narratives. Sale is coming off his two most successful outings. Rather than regaining his velocity (it only rebounded for one game against the Yankees), Sale has adjusted by increasing his slider rate from one-third to one-half of his pitches. The White Sox offense carries a 25 percent strikeout rate. I’m not sure I’d use Sale over Kershaw, but I can see how it may (or may not) work.

The last pitcher I prefer to CK is Matt Boyd ($17,900). Woof, that’s a weird thing to say. In this case, the matchup against the lowly Royals is a big factor. Boyd is consistently working six to seven innings which has value in his era of max effort starts.

Trent Thornton ($12,800) has struggled with allowing too much hard, line drive contact. I think, given the opportunity, he’ll learn to avoid barrels. At the very least, he’s due for some regression. With a healthy strikeout rate, he looks like a nice bargain this evening against the Rangers. I’m not in on this supposed Mike Minor ($18,000) breakout. I’ve long considered him a useful mid-tier pitcher – not dissimilar to Boyd. However, I don’t much care for a matchup against the Blue Jays offense. It’s medium-high risk, medium-high reward. There are better plays at this price point.

Some others to try include Joe Musgrove ($14,800), Robbie Ray ($14,500), and Shane Bieber ($15,000). Musgrove is hosting a difficult Athletics offense at pitcher friendly PNC Park. He’s a solid alternative to Boyd and Minor for mid-tier production. Ray is a lotto ticket at Coors Field. He’s missing some of his fastball velocity, although it doesn’t seem to have affected his profile. In a small sample, the Rockies have a 66 wRC+ against southpaws. Biebs is another mid tier option, one who has posted over 20 points in four of six outings (and flubbed the other two). I consider him a better version of Minor’s risk/reward profile.

Last but definitely not least is Tyler Beede ($12,200). I boldly predicted Beede would be fantasy relevant this season. Through five Triple-A starts, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA with 13.50 K/9 and 3.97 BB/9. There’s a chance he’s already the best pitcher in the San Francisco stable. The Reds offense has a league worst 65 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. I don’t think anybody actually believes they’re the worst offense, that’s just how it’s played to date. The second worst offense is the Giants, and everybody believes it. Sonny Gray ($15,800) is an excellent target tonight.

Favorite Plays: Glasnow, Paxton, Thornton, Beede, Gray

Stack Targets: Dan Straily, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Urena, Tyler Anderson, Jorge Lopez, Reynaldo Lopez,

4. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Paxton, Kershaw, Boyd, and Kevin Gausman are the top picks. I’ll add Sale is miles ahead of the pack per the Sim. Sale, Ray, Musgrove, Paxton, and Jerad Eickhoff are the top-vetted bargains. Brandon Lowe, Tommy Pham, Nolan Arenado, Ronald Acuna, and Trevor Story are the bats to pack. Nate Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Joey Votto, Brandon Crawford, and Kendrys Morales lead the way in valueland. This 1. confirms my expectations about the Rays stack and 2. indicates a distrust in my selection of Beede.

5. The Prettiness

One of the prettier diving plays we’ll see this season.

It says Buxton ran 106 feet, but I think it was closer to 200 feet.

I think we’re going to see a lot of Charlie Culberson on the mound this year.