The Daily Grind: Thor, Flande, Adonis, Miller

Agenda

1. Daily DFS – Syndergaard, Strasburg
2. GB / FB Splits
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, Shoemaker, Flande, Adonis, Miller
4. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – Syndergaard, Strasburg

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Blue Jays and Yankees are on their own at 1:05 ET. The FanDuel early contest starts at 4:05 ET and includes five games. The obvious ace of the time slot is Noah Syndergaard. If he’s not walking too many hitters, he’ll post a big DFS night. The Rays lineup isn’t particularly good against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, he costs $10,800 on FanDuel. He’s probably worth it today.

The other hurlers I’d consider include Francisco Liriano ($10,200), Nate Karns ($7,900), and Mat Latos ($6,700). I’d rather find $600 to upgrade from Liriano to Syndergaard. The Pirates lefty is opposed by a tough Dodgers lineup. Karns has a resurgent Mets roster while Latos is opposite Liriano at Pittsburgh.

Late: Stephen Strasburg should prove to be popular in his return from the disabled list. He costs just $8,700 on FanDuel. Out of nine games, Strasburg is also the only true ace on the board. He notched 11 strikeouts in his latest rehab start. Sounds like vintage Strasmas. Expect the Nationals to pull him early.

The other pricey pitcher I’m considering for personal use is Tyson Ross. He’s opposed by the miserable Phillies lineup. Ross has the talent to twirl a complete game gem, but he’s more likely to throw six innings of solid baseball. If it’s a bargain you desire, I’d go for Robbie Ray ($6,700) versus Cincinnati or Tom Koehler ($7,000) opposite the Braves.

Stack Targets: Matt Cain, Martin Perez, Eddie Butler, Wade Miley, Alfredo Simon, Jeremy Guthrie, Wily Peralta, Mike Foltynewicz, Keyvius Sampson, Adam Morgan

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

We have 35 players to consider today, not all of which are entirely viable. Here are my favorites.

Dexter Fowler v Matt Cain
Yasiel Puig v Francisco Liriano
Matt Wieters v Garrett Richards
Jose Bautista v Ivan Nova
Nick Castellanos v Wade Miley
Ruben Tejada and Travis d’Arnaud v Nate Karns
Brayan Pena and Joey Votto v Robbie Ray

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Tillman, Shoemaker, Flande, Adonis, Miller

Pitchers to Start: Chris Tillman and Matt Shoemaker are scheduled to square off tomorrow. Both pitchers have struggled through most of the 2015 season, although they’ve both pitched well lately. Tillman has tossed 23.2 innings over his last three starts with a 0.38 ERA, 5.32 K/9, and 1.52 BB/9. A .113 BABIP helps make the numbers look even tidier. A Stark might warn Tillman and his owners that regression is coming.

I prefer Shoemaker. For one, he won’t have to pitch to Mike Trout (not that Manny Machado is a bum). Over his last three starts, Shoemaker has allowed no runs, 12.79 K/9, and 2.84 BB/9 in 19 innings. There’s always a risk for home runs since he’s a fly ball pitcher.

Also consider: Mike Fiers, Patrick Corbin

Pitchers to Exploit: Yohan Flande has one of my favorite names in baseball. He’s also not a terrible pitcher. With a high ground ball rate, he’s basically Dallas Keuchel without the wipe out slider. In fact, if he wasn’t a Rockie, I’d buy low on him in a dynasty format. For the purposes of tomorrow, he’s unlikely to last more than five innings. He might do just fine against the Nationals, but the Colorado bullpen is terrible. Heinous. The Nats will either crack Flande or the handful of relief scrubs they see after him.

Also consider: Marco Estrada, Phil Hughes, Bartolo Colon, Colby Lewis, Jerome Williams, Brad Hand

Hitters (power): The other day, swing guy Dan Farnsworth told me to use Adonis Garcia against left-handed pitching. This is our first opportunity to do so – he’s opposed by Hand. The erratic Marlins southpaw should be widely exploitable. Garcia has 11 hits in the majors – four singles, three doubles, and four home runs. Look for the power stroke to be in play.

Also consider: Andre Ethier, David Peralta, Marlon Byrd, Yonder Alonso, Seth Smith, Preston Tucker, Jayson Werth

Hitters (speed): There is no question, Brad Miller was overhyped last year. However, he’s quietly bounced back to do exactly what we always expected he’d do. A .245/.321/.399 slash is right in line with his projections. He’s popped nine home run and stolen 11 bases with eligibility at second base, shortstop, and outfield. Odds are, he’s either free on your waiver wire or cheap to acquire via trade. So long as you can handle benching him against left-handed pitching, he’s excellent roster glue.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Will Venable, Tyler Saladino, Rajai Davis

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It looks like a rain-free day. As with yesterday (and tomorrow), most of the stadiums are power neutral.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.